Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Live Parx 8/17 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9332)

Bill V. 08-17-2013 01:45 PM

Live Parx 8/17
 
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Its no Spa/Alabama or beautiful Del Mar but its # 1 around these parts :)

Track conditions and scratches


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dirty moose 08-17-2013 01:47 PM

Lol Well said

dirty moose 08-17-2013 01:48 PM

r2
 
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Bill V. 08-17-2013 01:49 PM

the 7 horse
 
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This one troubles me

Not sure what to make of that last race

right now its the 0.0 on the tote

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Bill V. 08-17-2013 01:52 PM

6-3
 
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no bet but
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dirty moose 08-17-2013 01:57 PM

I went 1,3 with a silly exacta (1/3/7). No more exactas for now.

Bill V. 08-17-2013 02:02 PM

the 3
 
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The 3 wins but there is trouble underneath :rolleyes:

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Look at all the + races
The last line is the same conditions and a plus race
Line 4 is a plus race at CL 10 -N3L
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Bill V. 08-17-2013 02:05 PM

results race 2
 
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The 1 needs more rest I didn't like the fade after the drop and then another 4 week rest

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Bill V. 08-17-2013 02:13 PM

The conditions
 
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The conditions of race 3 ar Claiming 7.5 Non winners of a race in 6 months
I struggle in this condition, These are just 1 step ahead of the very
bottom of the Parx condition ladder. They run a CL 5 N1-6m at 5.5 furlongs
for the VERY worst ( non maidens )
Anyway I struggle in the type race,


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lone speed 08-17-2013 02:19 PM

Negative Class Dropper
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 92175)
The 1 needs more rest I didn't like the fade after the drop and then another 4 week rest

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Trainer trying to grab a purse??

More likely, a trainer trying to unload a problem horse.

If the horse can compete for $16K claiming races, why the drop in half???

If this was a 3 year old dropping in half against older horses, the move would be understandable; same class level..

I prefer to wager on a sharp horse stepping up in class, ten times more....imho

Bill V. 08-17-2013 02:19 PM

Pass
 
Horse 1 No excuse for a zero race against worse
Horse 2 Line 1 (+) drop in class
Horse 3 last two at 7 furlongs are brutal
Horse 4 nothing here
Horse 5 Dropping from open Cl 5000 Has no + races at Mth
Horse 6 Router is now the betting favorite
Horse 7 O race against the same last race

No bet for me

Bill V. 08-17-2013 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lone speed (Post 92177)
Trainer trying to grab a purse??

More likely, a trainer trying to unload a problem horse.

If the horse can compete for $16K claiming races, why the drop in half???

If this was a 3 year old dropping in half against older horses, the move would be understandable; same class level..

I prefer to wager on a sharp horse stepping up in class, ten times more....imho

Great post Lone Speed

GS
Bill

dirty moose 08-17-2013 02:23 PM

Passing R3 as well. Gun to my head I like the 1 horse.

Bill V. 08-17-2013 02:24 PM

5 is bet down from 8 to 3/1
 
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tote

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Bill V. 08-17-2013 02:28 PM

crowd is right
 
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Public gets this one right
The favorite and money off the morning line win the ex.

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Bill V. 08-17-2013 02:32 PM

race 4
 
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Race 4 is a CL 7.5 restricted to non winners of 2 races life time

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dirty moose 08-17-2013 02:35 PM

R4 is ugly IMO

Bill V. 08-17-2013 02:39 PM

Race 4
 
Pass
H1 Router 20/1.
H2 Just won state bred MC 7.5 form cycle is good bad good bad today?.
H3 Ep with bad 3rf fractions.
H4 Line 2 Sus excuse line 1 Class higher Public sees this too, betting heavy
H5 Line 1 (+) shows 4 recent + races but is 1-14 life
H6 First try against winner was a disaster then a 70 day layoff
H7 Router

Bill V. 08-17-2013 02:46 PM

tote at 5 minutes
 
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Every body is just about were the morning line said they would be

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Bill V. 08-17-2013 02:51 PM

Took all the cash
 
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here is the favorite
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Bill V. 08-17-2013 02:59 PM

Its always the 4 horse
 
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Tears fill the Bensalem Skys as the mighty 6 goes down !
Why? because "Its always the 4 horse " :)

Plus pace line in line 2 with a excuse

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Bill V. 08-17-2013 03:03 PM

race 5
 
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Conditions

Race 5 is a route distance 8 furlongs
The conditions are Claiming 12.5 restricted to non winners of 4 race lifetime 3 and older

These are better horses

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lone speed 08-17-2013 03:12 PM

Uggh...ugly field..

No wonder Brohamer concentrated on claiming races above 25K...lol

I narrowed the race down to My Nono, Global Glow and Dollar Bill...

Global Glow --question if this one is a turf horse only and his lack of ability to win...


My selections are My Nono and Global Glow..

Good skills

Bill V. 08-17-2013 03:14 PM

Race 5
 
H1 Just won at 7.5 N3 -L moves up Line 1
H2 ran a zero against Starter 16 for N1X or 4- L. Last
line 2 is a sprint, line 3 is a + at this condition but 138 days ago ?
Being bet heavy and is now 1.6/1
H3 Dollar Bill ! Sustained and 3-31 No line
H4 No line Maybe they think the race will come off the dirt and switched
to a turf race ! LOL 3-43
H5 Line 2 is a + race but line 1 is a big 0 Its dropping in class so its getting bet from 8/1 to 3/1
H6 Last 3 races are all zero.s

Nothing here

Lt1 08-17-2013 03:15 PM

I'll go 5 3 2

Bill V. 08-17-2013 03:18 PM

Brohame
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by lone speed (Post 92190)
Uggh...ugly field..

No wonder Brohamer concentrated on claiming races above 25K...lol

I narrowed the race down to My Nono, Global Glow and Dollar Bill...

Global Glow --question if this one is a turf horse only and his lack of ability to win...


My selections are My Nono and Global Glow..

Good skills

I hear you, In the late winter and after labor day these 12.5 N 4 - L races are
much better, For years Parx used to shut down for a few weeks in August
because the fields get too short with Mth Delaware and Penn all running

Once the horses come back to parx the cards get much better
Still its always good to work the race

Bill

Bill V. 08-17-2013 03:21 PM

close
 
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Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1 (Post 92193)
I'll go 5 3 2

Good try by the 5 LT1



Bill

Bill V. 08-17-2013 03:25 PM

More Rubins
 
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Plus races
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Bill V. 08-17-2013 03:30 PM

Race 6
 
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Race 6 is again a Claimer $7.500 restricted to non winners of 2 life.
The distance is a route 1 mile and these are 3 and older Females

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Lt1 08-17-2013 03:36 PM

Thanks Bill. Hey Bill what is tote xray that was showing on the tote screen. I follow Twin Spires so haven't got a clue.

Tim

Bill V. 08-17-2013 03:40 PM

race 6 look
 
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6 and 8

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lone speed 08-17-2013 03:41 PM

Race 6

Going with the recent maiden winner and sharp last race winner Nothin ButADream and Catinagua....sprinter stretching out...

Bill V..

I admired your fortitude to hunker down in these parts with these type of races...

good skills

Bill V. 08-17-2013 03:42 PM

Tote
 
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Tote at 2 minutes
The 8 is taking money

Hi Tim

I use Ted's Tote in RDSS2
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Bill V. 08-17-2013 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lone speed (Post 92201)
Race 6

Going with the recent maiden winner and sharp last race winner Nothin ButADream and Catinagua....sprinter stretching out...

Bill V..

I admired your fortitude to hunker down in these parts with these type of races...

good skills

Thanks LS

Yes every race every card I look em all over partner :D

lone speed 08-17-2013 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V. (Post 92200)


great going Bill...


"Know Thy Track!":cool:

Bill V. 08-17-2013 03:51 PM

6 was there
 
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Atta girl 6

Best thing in a N2 life race .....

Not a habitual loser and a plus races against winners. A lesson from FTL:D

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Bill V. 08-17-2013 03:54 PM

results
 
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Quote:

Originally Posted by lone speed (Post 92204)
great going Bill...


"Know Thy Track!":cool:

Thanks LS

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Lt1 08-17-2013 03:57 PM

Nice call Bill

Bill V. 08-17-2013 04:05 PM

Phone is jumping off the hook
 
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Running late on this one but here is race 7

Race 7 is a Starter allowance race for horses who have started for
a claiming race at $8000 or less , Ther is a time restriction
in this race of the claiming race must have been in 2012 or 2013

In this condition I look for plus races and plus races success in starter
races

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Bill V. 08-17-2013 04:11 PM

race 7
 
Rushed but I want to get it in
I will go with 1 and 4


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