If you can master these two things
 

I have been fortunate enough to have been corresponding with two
people who make thier living at the track.Both of them are not nickle
and dime players and the two things I have noticed that each does is

Know when to pass or play a race

How to bet it


All of this other stuff will not really help you to become successful
unless you can master these two things.

Jeff,

Very well said and absolutely true. Keep listening and absorbing and you may own CT Races. I have trouble in both of those areas at times and it keeps me from having any type of consistency. Contender selection and interpreting readouts (handicapping) is only a part of the overall puzzle.

Best wishes.

Jim

Jim,

Im in the same boat as you and sure others as well.

Hope you and your family have a Happy Holiday Season


Jeff


I would be happy just to own part of CT slot buisness

That slot business is really booming for them. Probably saved the town. Deciding when and how to bet is very difficult and why you do not see tons of people discussing it. Most, like me, have not figured it out. The few that have, that provides their edge.

Hope you and yours have a great holiday season as well.

Jim

Jim,


You hit the nail right on the head about people not discussing
it much.

I did see some screenshots from BLAM that looks like it would seem
to help but imagine that thier is a big learning curve with that program.


Jeff

I learned quite a bit from the Pizzolla lessons, but I sold the software several months ago. It became too expensive for me supporting multiple data sources and I prefer brisnet.

Jim

What was it about the program that you did not like?


Jeff

Nothing. It is a good program and manages racing information in a logical and concise manner. However, it did not provide me an edge that I could not get in cheaper alternatives.

Jim

I was just wondering as Im rereading Handicapping Magic and really
everything is in there that a handicapper would want to know.


Jeff

I think it is a good book as well. Not sure I agree that it is all encompassing for a handicapper, but it is certainly a good read. Pizzolla is an excellent speaker as well. Upon listening to him, I really sense he has been there, done that, when it comes to betting the horses.

I do not get that same feeling from many other "name" speakers that I have heard over the years. Many are just theorists, not rooted in practical horse playing. Horse racing for some people in the industry is a way to earn a living while stroking their ego and showing off their intellect.

Horse racing for some people in the industry is a way to earn a living while stroking their ego and showing off their intellect.


Jim,

Really great point


Jeff

JimG and Shoeless here is my take on all of it. Michael Pizzolla been there, done that, and still doing that. To truly learn of what Michael says is to like his soft focus, read between the lines. No one can read his book and get it first time through period. You need to go back to it and then back to it again because it really is IMO a work of art. If you read it with preconcieved idea's right there your not going to get it. But if you rid yourself of all the other you will get it then, it's "Eureka".

Trotman,

Good point .


Jeff

This is a good point that I got from listening to one of Pizzola's
seminars


People using software get so wrapped up in the readouts that they
lose sight on how to handicap the race.

I have been thinking about it and I guess the best way to pass or
play a race is if it has value.Also if the race falls under one of your
handicapping strengths.

For example GL45, he only plays Mountaineer and only at the 5000
claiming level and race has to have more then 6 horses.He might have
other restrictions but he seems to do very well.


I remember back in the old Prodigy days I bought a software from John
Rancount who used to own horses,it was called Horses n Courses.The
interesting thing was after you input your data the program told you what
horse to play and if you should bet it or not.

I think the software was ahead of it's time as I dont recall any others
that would do it.


As far as betting goes I dont have the slightest idea but do know that
you should have a game plan going in or it will be pure disaster.

Shoeless I would think that the 5,000 level at Mountaineer that GL45 plays is because he knows the various levels of classification within that 5,000 level
and he is specializing.

Jeff,
4 mtp for race #2 at MNR..... 6/5-8 & 5-8 to win....... wish me luck

Trotman,

Your right


Pino,

Good Luck

I thought Mountain was closed because I saw Deshawn Parker riding
at Tampa, he has over 300 wins this season.

Closing night there. Will open again in March.

Jim

I think tonight is the end of the meet.
No luck in race 2..... I had the contenders tho

Came in 6-4-2-5

6 went off even

6-4 16.80


Really windy here in DC area dont know about Mountaineer area

Pino,

With Mountain closing any tracks you will play or take a break.


Jeff

Jeff,
I will play Pen

Pino,

Ah your old stomping ground where you used to play years ago when
I first met you.

You are a good example for knowing what races to play

Jeff

From looking at all the posts on P&C it amazes me how people are just
concerned about what the software comes up with for a certain race or
what numbers you should look at or pacelines to choose.


They are not concerned about how to be able to make a steady profit
over the long haul with what races to play or pass on and more importantly
how to bet them accordingly.


I have to admit that I was one of the before mentioned at one time,I am
very fortunate that a few people took me aside and set me on the straight
path.I have yet to accomplish these goals hopefully one day I will.

Seasons greetings, Jeff. With that humble attitude, you will.

Best regards,

Jon

BHM does very well there.

Jon

Jon.

Thanks

Season Greetings to you as well

Jeff

I thought I knew most of the acronyms. What is BHM? Thanks.

Jim

Here is a perfect example of not knowing how to bet and also
letting odds affect you.


Sunday Turfway 2nd race

6 horse wins here at 9-2 which was top TPR and 2nd on sort

7 horse went off 25-1


An easy way to play this would have been box 3,6,7 which would have
gotten you a 165.00 exacta


But I had to throw out 7 because odds were too high


These same dumb mistakes will eat your bankroll up in a hurry

I had the 1 horse in a big contest on Derby Wars last weekend (my 2nd pick). I thought he would be about 15-1 and it was the second race of a twelve race contest.

With about a minute to post, I noticed he drifted up to 50-1. My top pick was 9-2. With 10 seconds left, I switched off to my top pick. The 1 won like a 3-5 shot and paid over $100 to win. I was sick about it. Still am. BTW, I finished 9th in the contest (they paid top 8) and with the 1 horse I would have won the contest. It paid $4,000 to the winner.

Long story short. I let the long odds adversely affect my decision making. I rarely do that as I tend to gravitate to longer odds in most contests. After years of playing and knowing better, I realize that I am still susceptible to these psychological shortcomings.

Try not to beat yourself up Jeff. It happens to all of us. As for me, I took the week off on all money contests as my mind is not right after this boneheaded move on my part. Thought I would share. Hope I did not bore anyone too bad.

Jim

Jim,

I think if that happened to me I would have jumped out of a window,sorry
that it happened to you.

Also that story did not bore me at all, Im glad you responded.

Happy Holidays again

Jeff

Just a note about TPR ratings dont just look at the total but how
the horses got it.

Jim,

You seem to fare very well in contests, hope you win the big one
someday.


Jeff

Playing wins on horse is a negative way long term
 

Over 50 yrs and more no one can come up with any answers about why do we look for winners and try to make a profit by betting on wins only or picks 123456
all winners no profit. I think this is a negative way to handicap horse racing to make a profit,i think the best way to make a profit or ROI is to play tri and super .ask any horse player how much time you went to the IRS window per year O for me. how about you or ask any horse player the same question.

Jeff,
just because your horse is a 25-1 you shouldn't pass on him. If was in your top numbers you should have bet him. How many time we talked about this little negative of your.

Me too Jeff. But with each passing year that is looking less likely. Appreciate the support. Hope you have a Happy Holiday as well.

Jim

Jeff review
 

Hi Jeff

Here per your email
are some KGEN readouts in regards to what I showed in the video.

TPRace2 3 year old up non winner 2 races in 1 year
CL5000
races less than 4000 not counted in conditiond

Life and 2012 records
H1 4-29 and 1-10
H2 7-57 and 1-8 EP3
H3 8-57 and 1-9 E/EP5
H4 8-46 and 1-7 EP7
H5 6-25 and 1-8 U
H6 3-22 and 1-11 EP4
H7 7-46 and 1-10 P1
H8 3-21 and 1-12 EP4

Pacelines
H1 No line
H2 line 1 Muddy but I'm looking at its early
position
H3 Line 1
H4 Line 1
H5 No line
H6 Line 1 is a (+) and its first try at TP current meet against open 5000 claimers it was within 2 on the turn
H7 Line 2 Line 1 first try at this condition
after the NW1-y win Line 1 is a (+)
H8 Line 1

contenders 6 8 3 4 and 7
positions RS
6 EP Has passed horses in the stretch
8 EP Never passed horses in the stretch
3 EP Has passed horses in the stretch
4 EP has passed horses in the stretch
7 P has passed horses in the stretch

No NTL E or SUS types !!

Into KGEN

The 6, 8, and 4 are EARLY
the 3 is EP the 7 is S/P

The top 2 on the exdc line graphs have a good chance
because the 3 is a early horse and the 8 6 and 4 break faster
Attachment 33046

The blocks are common to what RDSS shows by segments
F1= The 8 6 and 4 are close and lead the 3 and 7 by a big amount
TT = The 8 and 6 break away on the turn -goodbye 3 and 4
FF = The 7 wins the third fraction but 16 is close behind
with its advantage in F1 and TT the 6 will be tough.
Attachment 33047

Thoromation has the 6 winning
Attachment 33048

Pino,

You are right


Bill,

Nice job showing race KGEN