chuckg - November Learn to Win
 

The purpose of this contest is to learn how to win horseraces. The purpose of this contest is not to try to win the contest. Remember trying is lying?

The best way to learn how to do something is to actually do it. You can't learn how to throw a curveball by watching the ballgame. You can't learn how to throw a curveball by listening to the pitching coach tell you how to throw. The only way to learn how to throw a curveball is to throw the baseball until you learn how to throw a curveball.

To anyone observing this contest and not participating, I recommend that you make a thread for yourself and start learning how to win.

Approach the contest as if you were just hired to teach "How to win horseraces using RDSS 101" at the local community college. You teach one class five nights a week for a total of 20 classes this month. The students are at the 101 level and don't even know where the bookstore or the bathroom is. Taking this approach will force you to work every race card with the eye toward selecting the one and only race that you can use as the example for tonight's lesson. Working races in public like will cause you to zero in on races that you think you can win.

Posting races into this contest in public has made a huge difference in my own handicapping. The results are noticeable between Sept and Oct and are showing up even more so in my real life bankroll.

Nov 5 FL race 5
 

$40 to win on 7
$60 to place on 7

We have three earlies in this race. The 10 looks to be the fastest.

Here is the early group:

Attachment 31562

With three earlies we are looking for an unearly that will run 3rd or 4th and close against today's pace.

Last out the 2 did just that against our early 10 horse. That eliminates the 10 from going wire to wire.

Attachment 31565

Now let's look at the OTE group to see which one can run from the 4th slot and is the closest to the front against today's pace.

Looks like the 7 is that horse and closes against a faster pace than the rest.

Attachment 31564

Here is the BL/BL to make sure that the SRs confirm the pacelines.

Attachment 31563

nice message
 

Thank You Chuckg

Your opening message is beautiful and inspiring
I have save it as a document and it just was added to my
Pace and Cap scrap book of best post

I think you made Doc and Jim very proud and I think of them smiling down on you

Good Skill Mr Sartin Messenger

Nov 5 FL race 5 result
 

Thirdplaceitis today.

8 horse won.

winner
 

Hi Chuck

I know you are a Match Up guy and use the full PP's for
to match the projected POR you used line 8

I just wanted to show the PP's as line 3 looks like a line to use
Line 1 was a plus within a zero and line 1 and 2 look like too high of a class

(for us non matchers :rolleyes:)

Attachment 31572

Why no Hi Ho
 

This was my original workup to post. I thought it was way too busy, so I culled each horse to one line.

I believe your paceline is in that bunch.

Attachment 31582

My observation was that 8 Hi Ho was a stretch runner the kind to "avoid like the plague" according to advice from the matchers forum. Most of the color is in the final fraction. And he did run the stretch today, only from the front of the pack instead of behind. That's why nobody caught him. Generally, you want to see that a horse will run closer to slower instead of keeping the same distance from the lead in every single race.

Add that to the tandem loss to the 7 when they both ran sustained and you have a single bet on the 7.

In retrospect, this would have been a really good race to take on a two horse bet.

Nov 6 FL race 9
 

$25 to Win/Place on 7
$50 to Place on 9

The favorite 3 is the only early, has way higher SRs than the rest of the field.
Attachment 31604
Needs a big lead to win.

Is there a horse that can force the 3 out of its comfort zone?
Here is a line that shows that 9 can run right next to 3 the whole way and beat it by a length at the end.
Attachment 31607
Line for 9 is last out. Line for 3 is fastest pace ever.

If they both wear each other down, is there a horse that can run from 3rd and close against the same final time.

The 7 ran from third two back and won. Also, the third line back shows it can finish 8.5f at the time we are looking for. Looks like the winner on the segments screen.
Attachment 31606
Using any of the last three lines makes the 7 the winner on BL/BL.
Attachment 31605

Nov 6 FL race 9 result
 

Well, they're all on the board, just not in the right order.

Anybody out there good at handling early favorites? My usual routine seems to find a way to hide the favorite and throw out the earlies, even if they are the same horse.

Attachment 31612

The 3 looks pretty tough
 

That last line ? maybe it just didn't want to run ?

Attachment 31617
The 3 is strong on the readouts

Attachment 31613
Attachment 31614
Attachment 31615
Attachment 31616

There is no doubt in my mind that based on "time" you isolated on the #3 and #9 as the two dominant early horses correctly.

Having said that, the #3 is the more consistent early horse at the first call and therefore likely to "get the jump" on the #9 horse.

One last thing to note is, the #3 holds a class edge over the #9. Just compare the last 5 races for each horse. I think the comparison should tell the tale.

Also, I have attached the chart of the race and noted the comment on the #9. It says the horse checked at the start. If this is accurate, it is all the #3 horse would need in order to gain an advantageous lead over the #9.

In the end, some of this is there to see pre-race, while the unforeseen start could not be known until post-race. I think there was enough to see pre-race to logically conclude the #3 was the better early horse.

As to whether the #3 would be good enough to win or not? That is up to the handicapper.

Class
 

here is the 9 horse

Attachment 31619

Nov 7 FL race 2
 

$25 on 2b to Win/Place
$25 on 3 to Win/Place

Spot Play Router to Sprint

Scrolling the contenders I see the 3 horse ran in internal fraction to 6f in 113.7
Attachment 31641
I looked for all other contenders who have finished a 6f race in 113.7 competitively.

Here are the lines.
Attachment 31643
There are four earlies in this race and all take turns fighting for the lead and finishing second or third.
Attachment 31642
That was mess of tandems, but it shows the 4 and 7 to be the regular losers of every matchup.

On the BL/Bl they are all evenly matched.
Attachment 31640
If I eliminate the earlies and the perpetual tandem losers I am left with the 3 and 2b.

Nov 7 FL 2 result
 

Today they finished in the right order.

Attachment 31644

Router
 

Chuckg
Nice call on the router gets you a $73 profit

Attachment 31646

Nov 8 Fl race 6
 

$50 to win on 4
$50 to place on 4

Favorite 1 is sprinter going route. But, today we have a field of nearly all earlies.
Attachment 31683

4 is the least early of them all and was leader in the least tandem race.
Attachment 31682

Comparing last two sprint lines between the 4 and 1 has the 4 on top.
Attachment 31681

Nov 8 FL race 6 result
 

There it is again. All my contenders on the board but in the wrong order. Maybe I'll have to start putting in superfectas. And in the meantime, search the forum for threads on how to deal with early horses correctly.

Attachment 31684

Class early
 

Hi Chuck

Hope you find some helpful stuff about early favorites

I want to bring up something that was just shown to me the other night

look at the life time records for your contenders

1= 3/13
2= 4/74
4= 4/59
5= 2/25
7= 3/13

Not exactly a bunch of breeders cup runners

You have 5 Early runners -that is they use their Energy Early
In these cheap races you have to pay very close attention
to the first fraction and in all races !
Who is going to take control of the race at the start
Most of the vital readouts in RDSS and any program
are influanced by the 2nd fraction and second call
but how and who got to the lead at the 2nd call is very important

Here are some helpful screens

The segments screen
Attachment 31685
The Energy Early Pace Potentail ( not EPR )
and FX
Attachment 31686
Always check your FX readout as its a calculation of the 1st and 3rd fraction
with no 2nd fraction
Attachment 31687
In your race the winner is right there in F1 on the segments screen
Its in the top 3 E/EP and Its rated 5th on FX
with a balance toward early . you can tell this because it has a weak LP
and HE

All this would support a good case for the two top Early horses
nobody uses their energy OTE of your contenders

and thats how they ran

Attachment 31688

Bill,
Thanks for the workup with my chosen lines. I went way back to line 7 on purpose for the 5 horse because it showed him getting the lead and taking control of the race at the stretch call. (At least compared to today's company). I backed off of him because he took forever to make it home from the stretch. There are also three other lines in his PP that had great early paces but then he took his sweet old time getting in. That scared me away from betting him.

That 7th back running line exactly matched his race today, second to first, as you pointed out. The way you had the segments screen sorted out would have won the race, especially in your use of the the second fraction. I notice that whenever I lose a race that I think is an obvious no-brainer at Finger Lakes it is to the horse that has command of the race at the top of the stretch on the segments or velocity screen. Even though I put that old line in there to try to make the 5 the winner, I went searching for a horse who could best the favorite, who wound up coming in second. I took my usual approach of assuming that with so may earlies this race would run late.

I wound up winning the last three races on the card, because two of them went other than early, and got paid for the pic3 at $67. If I had worked up the 6th the way you did the pic4 would have paid me $920.

I will print out your workup for next time.
Thanks again.

I have found that the hardest thing there is for the majority of people to do, is evaluate EARLY horses correctly.

I read a comment by a "pundit", whose name everyone would recognize, that said you could not make money betting early horses because they don't pay enough money. Well, there's one expert that has no idea what he is talking about. If it were not for early horses paying larger mutuals, I would be sleeping in the street!

Most people only land on early horses when they use a line from an early horse where it won or ran a very close 2nd or 3rd. I think the reason is obvious. When an early horse wins or runs a very close 2nd or 3rd, it is no longer real deficient in third fraction or in vdc. However, this is the reason early horses like these pay shorter prices.

In order to be successful, especially with early horses, you have to be able to determine if that early horse that fades (backs up) will control today's pace and go on to win. Not an easy thing to do.

I have written this MANY TIMES. "Hat" said horse racing is an easy game. When the gates open one horse gets the lead. If no other horse can pass it, it wins.
Easy for "Hat" to say, right?
Well, it's easy for anyone once they gain an understanding.

Let me put it this way.
A person bets a closer. The early horse wins and the closer is never a factor.
Are they deterred from betting a closer in the next race? Not at all.
But if a person bets an early horse and it fades down the stretch, are they deterred from betting another early horse? You bet they are!
The commonly heard phrase would be something like "that blankity blank QUITTER!"
No body wants to bet on a horse that they think will fade coming down the stretch, but it doesn't matter to them if their closer doesn't close.
Somehow or another, that just doesn't make sense to me. A loss is a loss.

With millions of horses and hundreds of thousands of races in a database, I can tell you that 40% of all races are won by horses that are running 1,2,3 at the first call. I can also tell you that more than 70% of all races are won by horses running 1,2,3 at the second call. This information was gleaned from ALL races on ALL surfaces at ALL tracks.
Certainly, one should be aware of how horses are performing at the track(s) they play on a regular basis, but that is the overall picture. A starting point, if you will.

I know this doesn't answer your question about "how" to deal with early horses, but the answer does not lie in a simple one sentence answer. All I can tell you is this. If you ONLY rely on energy disbursement, you will not get the answer. That's not going to be a popular answer here, but it is the way it is.

And you better pay attention to the first call..
Although the second call has long been considered the "early" call, the race (at any distance) is mostly over at that point. For example, in a 6 furlong race, the race is 67% complete at the second call. In an 8 furlong race at the second call, the race is 75% complete. So what would you call the FIRST CALL? The first call IS THE EARLY CALL. It is the first call that sets the tone for the rest of the race.
Again, I will call on the "Hat". He often said "the race starts when the gates open". The gates don't open at the second call.

Nov 9 FL race 7
 

$40 to win on 6
$60 to Place on 6

2 horse is favorite in this race, an Early Turf Router with massive class advantage going Dirt. First time at this distance and at this track. 0 for 2 lifetime on dirt.

We also have a sprinter going route. Last sprint line and only two route lines for the 3 show that he can wind up on the lead today by default.

The segments screen show the sprinter 3 finding himself loose on the lead in F1.

Not having ever had the lead, he is shown blowing up in F2 while the normally early 2 horse goes out to get him being followed by the 6.

Attachment 31693

In the stretch:
In 10 lines of PPs the 2 has been passed by 11 horses and only passed 2. In 10 lines of PPs the 6 has never been passed in the stretch and has passed 5 other horses.

BL/BL shows the 6 with an SR advantage advantage but doesn't do justice to the 2 because we only have a 9f line to work with.
Attachment 31694

Nov 9 FL 7 result
 

Loss. 6 came in third.

Nov 14 FL race 3
 

$40 to Win on 3
$60 to Place on 3

This is a sprinter who runs sustained going up against a field of earlies who have been trading leads and losses. 3 horse has best late pace rating as a sprinter.

Attachment 31956

Nov 14 FL 3 result
 

Loss. Not even in the same race. To two early pace horses won and placed (1 & 4)

Nov 15 FL race 3
 

$60 to win on 1
$40 to win on 3

Hiding the favorite and the two slow earlies.

Attachment 31995

Nov 15 FL race 3 result
 

Loss. Favorite won.

Nov 16 FL race 8
 

$100 to Win on 3

Two lowest priced horses are the two dominant earlies. Which one will get the lead?

Attachment 32053

Segments screen shows the 4 getting the jump over the 5 and holding it through the second call.

Attachment 32054

Is there an other than early that can overcome the pace set by the 4?

Tandems screen shows the 3 beating the 4 in 3 of the last 4 races. One at today's distance of 5.5f. Last out was on a my track and might explain why 3 did not pass 4 that time.

Attachment 32052

Nov 16 FL 8 result
 

Loss. I didn't think there would be enough race for the late running 7. 5. 5f turned out to be exactly 3/4 of a lenght long enough. 7w 3p 4s.

Nov 19 FL race 6
 

$40 to win on 6
$60 to place on 6

Attachment 32133

Nov 19 FL race 6 result
 

Serious bomb there. Gettable if you use the best route lines ever for each horse. Segments screen would then predict the outcome. Entire block of F1 leaders went out at a very fast 23.2 leaving only the deep stretch runners with any leggs left at the finish.

Attachment 32142

Nov 20 FL race 6
 

$40 to win on 2
$60 to place on 2

Favorite 8 is main early but this is first time over track and is shown not getting lead in F1 on segments screen. Has to take lead away from 1 in F2. 2 horse beat 1 in tandem races when 1 fights for lead.

Attachment 32150

Nov 20 FL race 6 result
 

2 1 8 on the segments

1 2 8 in real life

Attachment 32154

Nov 26 FL race 4
 

$50 to win on 11
$50 to win on 4

Two horse win bet. Highest odds, highest ranking pressers among 10 early types.

Attachment 32249

Nov 26 FL race 4 result
 

Nope.

Tier 1 horse wins at 3 to 1 off of a lower class level winning line.

Attachment 32250

Win bets ran 2nd and 4th. Favorite not on board.

Nov 27 FL race 3
 

$40 to win on 7
$60 to place on 7

Tandems and class would have this race 6 - 4 - 7

Those two approaches have not been very predictive lately.

7 is the fastest horse at highest ML of contenders.

Maybe he won't remember who beat him last time or how much he raced for.

Attachment 32272

Nov 27 Fl race 3 result
 

All four contenders on the board but in the wrong order again.

7 finished 4th and went off as the favorite.

Attachment 32273

Nov 28 FL race 3
 

$40 to win on 1
$60 to place on 1

Favorite 5 is a 2nd place runner against a sworn E only horse (6).

Attachment 32298

Nov 28 FL race 4
 

$25 to W/P on 10
$25 to W/P on 4

Many early routers and sprinters going route.
Using last lines for all.

10 ran the best early route against the fastest pace last race and highest class, fought and placed.

4 is only Sustained sprinter, almost won last race.

9 is not early but tends to run at the leaders and fade. Lost tandem race last out doing same.

Taking best early and best late pace rating from Bl/BL. Win/Place bets because of ML odds.

Attachment 32299

Nov 28 Fl race 5
 

$40 to Win on 8
$60 to Place on 8

5 and 2 are early and have fought each other even to the point of falling down 5 races back.

Race to run OTE.

Favorite won 5 in a row, should put all other horses at good odds, but is first time over this track.

Taking highest ranking OTE horse which runs closest to the lead positionally relative to pace. Original lines show 8 in the lead at the stretch.

Attachment 32300

Nov 28 FL race 3 result
 

1 horse won. Was bet down heavily. 6 placed.

Nov 28 FL race 4 result
 

My 4 and 10 choice finished 2nd and 3rd.
2 horse won. I missed the tandem win against the 10 two lines back.

I'm noticing that 6 of the 9 winners on the Finger Lakes card each day can be explained by how the horse ran in its last race. The other three winners can be explained by the 2nd line. Only every other day or so does a horse win off of a line deeper than that.