The Preakness
 

My pacelines with RDSS shown below. All horses except Tiger Walk won @ G1.
(Tiger Walk finished 4th).
I didn't use the Derby line for Bodemeister and I'll Have Another. I think Bodemeister will repeat what he did at the Derby.
I believe he was still in the lead at 9.5 F...this time he won't run out of real estate. For those who are interested in the CSR numbers.

Bodemeister - 190, Tiger Walk and Ill have another 189, Creative Cause and Teeth of the Dog - 187.

I am passing this one.... good Luck with your picks.

Ernie

Preakness
 

Think i will have some fun this race and bet the 6 and 4.

Bob

Okay , I changed my setting back to 50% and slid the bar out to -50 and +50 , instead of the -15 and +15 as before. Here are my Preakness, screens with Last Line and then Best Perceptor, last 3 comparable, and then New Pace Screen

I forgot to post my picks, and will maybe key 3 horse as a Longshot, yet my gut tells me that Went the Day Well and Daddy Nose Best, should be contenders and either could get the win .

I may make a few wagers, but will wait till Saturday to decide, 1-2 exacta's and a few little tri's, for 6-12.00 each. If lucky I may put 60.00 into the race and hope for the best.


Good luck all

this is my bet
$10 ex=7-5
$10 tri=7-5-6
$10sup=7-5-6-9
total of $30

I love these big race days. Not because I just have to bet the Preakness like many, but I love all the stupid money bet. I want a horse that has a reasonable chance to win with value and I don't see it in the Preakness. Now when I say stupid money I'm looking at all the other tracks and other races because they too tend to play stupid on big days because they are so intent on picking the winner of the big race in this case the Preakness that there are many good bets with value at the other tracks because of this obsession to be right on the big race. Whatever you should do today, remember it's not how many winners you picked, it's how much of their money your leaving with.
Good luck to all.

So Pretension shows up on top but you choose to out think the software and ignore it?

jms62 if that's your play go for it. I already said the race is a mess and had no value and would look elsewhere. Value with a more than reasonable chance to win is black and white different than relying on numbers spit out by a program. I would best guess that all the software programs would give a different top horse. If you stop looking for winners you'll understand what I mean.

I don't think anyone can run with Bodemeister.

I'll bet him to show if I can get a 1.15 return.

I agree , there are a lot of good size non-maiden fields Going at Calder ,Lad , Ct and Wo . I will work the Preakness for the fun of it ,unless I see a BIG overlay. Good skill to all.........

No more excuses for bodemeister!!!
 

Il have another is flat out a better horse and is getting better!!

Way to go mario.g!!!!!!

"Bodemeister" A professional hanger?
 

The clues were there; the key is to see it early in a horses career while you can still make some decent money betting against him. Bodemiester's low odds are all the more reason to assume he's a hanger in the making. True, nobody could stay with him early, but there was one who could outfinish him.

Hanging in a handicapping sense, and I use a narrow definition, is when a horse makes the lead, or has the lead in the vicinity of the eight pole and allows one or more horses to pass him. Often the kiss of death for a favorite. If you're going to bet this race at all, why put a 6/5, 7/5, low odds horse on top? He's already hinted at distance limitations, or he may be on his way to a career as a hanger. Either way, a poor propostion.

I didn't find this race confusing as long as I kept my objective in clear view; I didn't care who won as long as I took some money out of it. Believe there were only three GR I winners in the race and a couple who placed in GR III. I began by anchoring my superfecta with Bodemeister in 2nd place, put the other two GR I winners over and under him, and ran the field in 4th, then I went back and narrowed my 4th choices, to Just horse that I liked and bet it multiple times. Both bets came in. Had there not been a superfecta in this race I just would have bet win and called it a day, but with a horse like Bodemeister in the field I went for a better score.

Regards,
chris

[QUOTE][/QUOTE Bodie the fav had an easy lead in the derby. Yes the splits were fast but CD always rolls the track to make it like a concrete highway on derby day. I also did not use the derby lines. Ill have another made a power move in the paceline I used and the screen shot here supports that. I felt Bodie was suspect so I went with Ill have Another.

To me, this was a race to sit back, watch, and enjoy, which I thoroughly did.

Pre race, it was logical to assume that Bode should be able to set slower fractions without any real pressure and maybe hang on at the shorter distance.

Last race speed figs showed Bode and I'll 3 lengths better than Creative. If you went back to Creative's San Felipe, that fig was only one length back and Daddy's Sunland Derby was 2 lengths back - neither was a G1 so keep that in mind. Nothing else in the field was close.

I believe Bill Lyster's chart showed the same 4 horses as "best". Don't know whether those are raw or adjusted mile times.

Assuming Bode did slow the pace down, when you looked at the 1st call positions of both Creative and Daddy, it did not bode well for any improvement - no pun intended. And,yes, I heard ad nauseum about Creative's ground loss. Ask me how many times that has reversed itself with a win in the 23 years I've been at this.

So, it looked like either Bode or I'll. I did not find those odds attractive, so I passed and enjoyed. As a SoCal capper, while I don't know how I feel personally about O'Neill, I have no hesitation to bet one of his runners, but I really felt good about Gutierrez' success. Nice young man.

Well, good call, looks like you got 40%. Hope you put some capital behind it. Nice hit.

[QUOTE=dugoutgold;79938]Great! Please tell me how the Nasdaq will close last Friday?

Sounds like sour grapes jms62, dugoutgold made a point and a good one. Yeah I know Pretension is still running or did he even run but that is what the software spit out.

Thanks, Lou. I made a very large bet using 25% Kelly. Got lucky. :>)

Maybe the return came in a bit higher than you expected but no luck - it was a good call and you followed through with it. I sat on my hands as my overall long term record on high percentage show betting tends to hover around break even - up 2%, down 2%, that kind of result.

FYI, all times in the chart are raw, no adjustments.

Bill

[QUOTE=jms62;79947] lol. i tryed to post this before the race but had trouble. I havent been active here in a long here and couldnt get the attachment to upload.
Best doug:):

Had a few inquiries about what program I used to post the screen shot. Its the pace screen from the old matchup program which is in a nutshell a somewhat stripped down version of AODDS98. I posted the screenshot of the pace screen for simplicitys sake.

Thanks dugoutgold, I thought my eyes were playing tricks on me as my Taulbot Pace Calc came up with at first glance the identical screen! Same programer?

Not the same programmer it was Randy Kovich who punched the code for Jim Bradshaw.

Best! Doug

atlasaxis good catch, same programmer Randy Kovich did the code for the Taulbot Pace Calculator software. I too pulled this up after the fact once I saw dugoutgold's post.