Np
 

for the NP RDSS afficionados only, Msalony is making a killing.

MNR.....66 races, won 39 with a ROI of 112.93% Exactas only

few bombs, the last bombs did occurs last night in race 8, RDSS had 2-7/4-6
for a net of $272.20.

A little braggadocio is in order.

Friends
 

Thats great news guys
Its really nice to see true Pace and Cappers
doing well all over the board


Keep it up Mike

thanks for the news Pino

Attachment 26623

GS
Bill

Congratulations Mike. You and Pino have put a lot of time into this. I'm glad to see it paying off. Thanks for letting us know Pino.

Mike, Pino,

Congratulations, and thanks for the news. Could you share some of your decision making process?

Attachment 26624

Attachment 26625

Ted

Thank you folks

Unadjusted speed rating are used.

DREAM SMART..never won a race, what make me think he will win today. OUT

WISE MR. BEAN...a swing horse due to 2nd call beaten lengths in 3 of his last 4 races. in the money last 4 races...IN

CITOYEN STYLE...last 2 races are a tell. Trainer is trying the old FDK angle (form darkening) off the 3rd. race back with no success. OUT

BERNIE'S SURPRISE.....third race off along layoff, that is enough for me, 2 workout races at Penn (faster track), also is stretching out. IN

PROMETHEUS.....good horse bad trainer, the horse won a race after 2 month layoff, trainer send horse out with 9 days rest and the horse gets a show, trainer think the horse is ready and send the horse back out today with 9 days rest. Anybody here think this horse is fresh or injured. OUT (I do pay attention to FTL posts)

JUSTICE EXPRESS....second race after 2 months layoff (good angle). Race workout at CT and at longer distance for stamina, back at MNR with another workout within a race for SPEED. The Taulbot famous or not so famous HW (Hidden Workout), beside the horse has decent finishes at MNR in the past. Why no risk $2.00 at those odds. IN

ROCKET RICHIE...Best of the field, back class and a great workout within last race at 7 furlong, good early speed and topped with the "A" angle, imagine that. IN

RHYD Y BLEW INN....The owner should retire this horse. OUT

lets do it again next week.

Why keep profiles and models
 

In another thread, I said I would not comment on the value of NP, because there were several others that have spent a lot of time in researching that value and I was leaving that to them since they were doing such good work. What I have to say, here, is in no way an effort to diminish their work, but it is a situation that I just can’t let go by. What I am going to show you here is a follow up to something else I posted in another thread. I would rather think of what I am about to post as a continuation of Mikesal57’s and Gl45’s work, especially as it pertains to this particular race.

Below you will see a couple of screen shots.
The first is my track profile for the night of this race. There isn’t much in the way of hindsight here as this race was the 8th race on the card. To anyone paying attention, there were 7 races run prior to this one. In every single race, 1 thru 7, the winner was on the lead by “at least” the second call and went on to win. Pay particular attention to the 6f races that night as well.

If that isn’t enough, the second screen shot shows my track profile for MNR up to and including the night before this race. It is for claiming races at 6f for males. That is what this race is.

Now I invite all of you to look at the PP’s for this race. No, I don’t have them here to post for you. You are going to have to do that on your own.

There is no horse in the race, that in either of their last two races, has been anywhere near the lead at the first and second call, other than the winner, who did it in its’ last race. I know some of you will point to the #7 horse that was in 2nd position last time out. Well, that was at 7f at TAM. There is a big difference between 7f and 6f, but that is another story.

While digesting this, keep in mind that the winner ran that race in another 6f race for males and although I didn’t research it, keep the profile I have attached in mind. It applied to THAT race as well.

The winner broke from the 10 post that night and did the best it could to try and make the lead, all the way to the second call. There is no other horse in today’s race that shows that kind of effort.

My point?
If you don’t keep these kinds of records, good opportunities, like this one, will pass you by.

FTL,
well said. I manually input my data, reason why I play one track and only cheap claimers.

My look
 

Hi FTL

Here are the PP's I have the Adjusted on top and the original on the bottom
As a very learned teacher told me this morning "I one opens his mind to what
Doc taught " The winner is very gettable But you must trust you DECISION
and work in a calm FOCUSED state . With basic Sartin Methodology guidelines
in playthe winner and exacta are top picks If you are willing to go back to
the best of the last three comparable paceline

My lines are hi lighted in yellow
Attachment 26633
Attachment 26634
Attachment 26635

4 5 6
 

horses

[ATTACH]26636[/ATTACH
[ATTACH]26637[/ATTACH
Attachment 26639
Attachment 26639

two six
 

Here is the BLBL

Attachment 26640

confused ???
 

Bill,

Why did you use line 4 as it was not a comparable race due to the track being listed as good.

Just curious? Or am I confused about comparable.

Hope is going well with you.

Bud

Bud
 

It is just a feeling that it is a correct call

Bill

that is the difference between good and average handicapper. Knowing when to bent the rules.

Bill & GL,

I'll buy that.

Thanks,

Hello Ted, on your ratings, wouldn't the 6 have gone in as Price Only?
Rod

Attachment 26654

Rodz,

Just focusing on the NewPace analysis in this race (and then, just the Adjusted SR set), if you let the 6 in as a 3rd Late due to Price Only (the #6 is ranked 3rd Late and separated from the 2nd Late #5 by only 1 point - we sort Late by the SR low), then you also have to consider the #3 horse in as a 3rd Early on Price Only (because it was tied with the 2nd Early #2) and at 18-1 was also well above natural odds.

If so, easy enough to throw out the #3, even only using CompSR. Now you have 5 horses. How to get that down to 3 for a reasonable betting situation? Again - using NewPace concepts - we've got a great analysis by Bill V using straight-up RDSS/Sartin.

How would you do it?

Ted

Ted,
I think the problem is....do I choose Raw TM ratings or Adjusted TM rating. If somebody has a decision model of the two ratings, then would be easy to find out which rating is the most profitable.

In my daily play the only time i look at raw ratings is for a line that is being extracted or projected.The equalized,normalized @ adjusted rating tells me everything i need to know.Work's done for you why mess with it.Doc's par gap formulae is good as any out there.

Success To All!

Hi Ted, from my understanding of the method, if you have chosen 7 and 2 Early; 1 and 3 could potentially be Early Price Only.
The 4 goes in Late and a choice has to be made between the 5 and 6 for second Late horse, with the
horse not chosen going in Late Price Only.
In this case if the 6 was not chosen Late it would definitely be backed Price Only.
How the other contenders, potentially 6 of the 8 runners, were bet would be down to betting preferences.
As the favourite isn’t dominating the others, the 1 or 3 could be backed along with the 2 and 6. In other circumstances the 7 may be backed on its own or with the longshots.

I don’t use NewPace the way it was originally set out but I like some of the ideas and find it useful for sorting out contenders.

Like you I was intrigued by the 'confidence range' ideas in the book ('How to Measure Anything' by Doug Hubbard). I think there is more potential research there.

I’m a bit of a lurker on the site. There are some brilliant posters. I probably spend most time in the MatchUp thread; couldn’t be much more different to NewPace!

I think RDSS looks like an excellent program and one day (when I’ve grown up?) I hope to try it out.
Well done Ted on RDSS and this site.
The posters are so knowledgeable and usually very positive and helpful.
Best wishes, Rod.

Ted...

Just ran across this...

In using Trackmaster 100 DTV setting....it would averted/lessen any decisions...;)

Agreed! But when do you use TrackMaster's SR and when do you use the internal Adjusted SR's? If only we knew in advance which one would give us a better result in the next race ;)

Your 2012 season Mountaineer records using TrackMaster's SR seem good enough. But unless there was a comparable workup using the Adjusted SR, it's not quite certain whether they would have hit a bit better or a bit worse, or averted a few more Loss series, etc.

I believe Bill Lyster's early workup in 2011 comparing TrackMaster and Adjusted SR's (i.e. use in NewPace) found a slight advantage to Adjusted. It would not surprise me that either SR - over a sufficiently long period - would produce comparable results.

Ted

Ted


If we can get some participation with other NP/RDSS users , then maybe we can get a study going...

Mike

ted seem to me that the angles made the #6 stronger condition horse since only 1pt difference

Patience, discipline and perseverance.
Way to go MSalony. RDSS NP strikes again.

Attachment 26827
Attachment 26821

Nice one Mike. Welcome back, Pino!

Ted