Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Sunday - Fair Grounds

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- - Sunday - Fair Grounds - "E" Projected Pace (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8119)

Sunday - Fair Grounds - "E" Projected Pace

Here is the tomorrow's 10th from Fair Grounds. It is a 5.5f dirt sprint with a full field showing.

We have two "E" runners off their last race at todays track and distance, #5 and #9. Both coming back to the races after a 2 month hiatus.

Interesting.

The very best of luck / skill to all who test the Cajun waters :)

Kind of silly do this before scratches, but here goes:

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RACE:  012910     DIST: -  6.0 FURLONGS    COMMENTS:  FG 10th



SETUP  46 111

*************************************************************



NAME        F W     E P     S P     T T     F X     W X

---------------------------------------------------------

#2 Buzz    55.17   55.81   54.85   55.09   55.40   55.28

#3 Yuko    54.86   56.36   54.11   55.04   54.58   54.72

#4 Put     54.20   56.24   53.17   54.37   53.95   54.08

#12 Far    54.79   56.80   53.78   54.99   54.49   54.64

#14 Tam    54.78   56.41   53.97   54.98   54.42   54.60



   



                        



         F 1     F 2     F 3     S C

Pace    58.20   55.54   53.88   56.80                  SC B/L

=====================================        ================

#12 Fa  58.20   55.50   50.77   56.80        #12 Far    0.00

#4 Put  57.81   54.79   50.10   56.24        #14 Tam    1.03

#14 Ta  57.30   55.54   51.53   56.41        #3 Yuko    1.15

#3 Yuk  57.30   55.50   51.86   56.36        #4 Put     1.47

#2 Buz  56.91   54.79   53.88   55.81        #2 Buzz    2.62



                          

                        

                                    RANKINGS

                                    ========



             F W   E P   S P   T T   F X   W X   L P   D R  MED E

             ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===  =====

  #2 Buz      1     4     1     1     1     1     1     1   67.46

  #3 Yuk      2     2     2     2     2     2     2     2   68.50

  #14 Ta      3     2     3     3     4     3     3     4   68.65

  #12 Fa      3     1     4     2     3     3     4     3   69.13

  #4 Put      4     3     5     4     5     4     5     5   69.21

You couldn't squeeze into the conditions of this race much tighter than Yukon and Tambo's have.

From the BRIS At A Glance, in 40 races through 1/26, E running styles have prevailed with 40% of winners going wire to wire with the best posts rail/inside. In the last 3 races, 2 have gone wire to wire with best posts in the middle. It is typically tough to win at 5.5 from outside posts.

Disclaimer: I have not fully 'capped this race.

Scratch #4 and #14...

I'm going against the 5 and 9, looking for an OTE runners against a 22.5 46.0.

#2 looks the best to me.

I will go with the 2 and 6
OTE

Good Skill to all matchers
Bill

With the #4 and #14 scratched, an early horse #14 is out. There are only 2 earlies here. The 5 is not a fighter. The 9 is a fighter. Though the 9 hasn't run in an off the pace role, I think he can run from just off the pace. He can handle the first fraction and can run in the 45's to the half which these others can't do.

The 9 is my choice.

Tim

Hello boys...

I agree with Tim....hope to get those 8-1 odds ;)

mike

My picks are the 2 and 9. I also consider a 2-5-9 exacta box a good play.

Ernie

Ha....the 5/2 exacta kept me above water......Ernie

Nice work Ernie

good for you

Bill

The result is in and the #5 outbreaks the field and crushes them going wire to wire.

Ernie grabs the exacta as the sole casher. :)

Thanks to everyone who jumped in and participated!

Quote:

Originally Posted by lsosa54 (Post 77581)

From the BRIS At A Glance, in 40 races through 1/26, E running styles have prevailed with 40% of winners going wire to wire with the best posts rail/inside.

In the last 3 races, 2 have gone wire to wire with best posts in the middle. It is typically tough to win at 5.5 from outside posts.

Since I recently started a thread in another section about "modeling", I'm going to sending out a big "GOOD JOB" by Isosa, who although he did not handicap the race and share his incites, he pointed EVERYBODY in the direction of the winner if you followed his post.

IF anyone followed the model he posted and arrived at the #5 horse as the correct horse based on that model, you would have two choices.
(1) bet the horse at 5/2, or
(2) pass the race because you don't like those odds.

Isosa's post of this model is a good example of the reason models should be kept.
Models are not correct every time, in fact, sometimes models aren't even "clear cut" (in which case you wouldn't use it, until it becomes clear cut), but when they are clear cut, it pays to use them.

Naturally, models are for the "WIN" position.

You could try keeping models for the 2nd, 3rd and 4th positions, but I don't think that is going to work out well for you.

Post Mortem: with scratches known

With the exception of the hopeless #1 and #11 here are all the horses using the last paceline for all.

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RACE:  012910     DIST: -  6.0 FURLONGS    COMMENTS:  FG 10th



SETUP  46 111





NAME        F W     E P     S P     T T     F X     W X

---------------------------------------------------------

#2 Buzz    55.17   55.81   54.85   55.09   55.40   55.28

#3 Yuko    54.86   56.36   54.11   55.04   54.58   54.72

#12 Far    54.79   56.80   53.78   54.99   54.49   54.64

#6 High    55.13   56.90   54.25   55.35   54.78   54.96

#7 Myle    54.68   55.79   54.13   55.11   53.82   54.25

#8 Mark    54.67   55.04   54.49   55.10   53.70   54.19

#9 Kill    54.95   57.26   53.80   55.18   54.57   54.76

#5 Caju    55.38   56.95   54.59   55.53   55.09   55.23

#10 Bid    54.41   53.55   54.83   54.69   53.67   54.04

#13 Eve    55.14   57.01   54.20   55.36   54.80   54.97

SYNII figured #9 Kill to have the lead at the second call, but not by much as four horses -- #9, #13, #5 and #6 were all within one length of each other.

In actuality #5 Caju had a one length lead at the second call.

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         F 1     F 2     F 3     S C

Pace    58.80   56.50   56.12   57.26                  SC B/L

=====================================        =================

#9 Kil  58.80   55.80   50.34   57.26        #9 Kill    0.00

#12 Fa  58.20   55.50   50.77   56.80        #13 Eve    0.66

#13 Ev  58.20   55.91   51.39   57.01        #5 Caju    0.82

#6 Hig  57.98   55.91   51.59   56.90        #6 High    0.95

#5 Caj  57.97   55.97   52.22   56.95        #12 Far    1.24

#3 Yuk  57.30   55.50   51.86   56.36        #3 Yuko    2.39

#2 Buz  56.91   54.79   53.88   55.81        #2 Buzz    3.86

#7 Myl  55.18   56.39   52.47   55.79        #7 Myle    3.94

#8 Mar  53.47   56.50   53.93   55.04        #8 Mark    5.92

#10 Bi  51.22   55.70   56.12   53.55        #10 Bid    9.90

Here are the rankings:

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 RANKINGS

                                    ========



             F W   E P   S P   T T   F X   W X   L P   D R  MED E

             ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===  =====

  #5 Caj      1     3     2     1     2     1     5     1   68.57

  #13 Ev      2     2     4     2     3     2     7     1   68.95

  #6 Hig      2     3     4     2     3     2     6     1   68.82

  #2 Buz      2     6     1     4     1     1     3     1   67.46

  #9 Kil      3     1     6     3     4     3     9     3   69.48

  #3 Yuk      4     5     5     5     4     3     4     3   68.50

  #12 Fa      5     4     6     5     5     4     8     4   69.13

  #8 Mar      6     7     3     4     7     6     2     2   67.09

  #7 Myl      6     6     5     4     6     5     4     5   68.01

  #10 Bi      7     8     1     6     7     7     1     2   65.58

As a matter of procedure I eliminate any horse which does not have a "1" or "2" in at least one category. Note, I do the same thing when creating models with RDSS.

Here are the final rankings, after eliminating #3, #12 and #7:

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 RANKINGS

                                    ========



             F W   E P   S P   T T   F X   W X   L P   D R  MED E

             ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===  =====

  #5 Caj      1     3     2     1     2     1     4     1   68.57

  #13 Ev      2     2     4     2     3     2     6     1   68.95

  #6 Hig      2     3     4     2     3     2     5     1   68.82

  #2 Buz      2     4     1     4     1     1     3     1   67.46

  #9 Kil      3     1     5     3     4     3     7     3   69.48

  #8 Mar      4     5     3     4     5     4     2     2   67.09

  #10 Bi      5     6     1     5     5     5     1     2   65.58

Even though SYNII didn't get the pace right these are the rankings I'd use to create a FG 6F Model (let's keep it simple and not break it down any further).

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                    F W   E P   S P     T T   F X    W X    L P   D R    MED E

                   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===  =====

  #5 Caj           1      3      2        1       2       1       4      1      68.57

Once I have a least five races in the model (seven is preferable) I'd look to see where the "1" and "2" categories are winning. Note, I make no distinction between a "1" or "2"; I count them both equally as hits.

In our seven race hypothetical model we might see something like this:

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                    F W   E P    S P    T T   F X    W X    L P    D R     MED E

                   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===  ========

 # of Wins        5      3       2       2      2       1       1       5     68.57-69

So after handicapping a race and looking for bets, based on the above, you'd look for a horse who ranked first or second in FW and DR with medium energy between 68.57 and 69.

That's how to use a model.

You can make it simpler. For example, on dirt only keep track of FW, EP and LP. For turf only keep track of FW, LP and SP.

That alone is sufficent to make you a winner, providing your contender and paceline selection is reasonable.

Or, you can make it more complicated. For example, you could track E/L graph, E/l rank, Per 1, Per 2, TS, Decel, BL/BL, Epr, Lpr, Cpr, He, Fw, Fx, Spn, etc.

It depends on many factors you're comfortable "juggling."

Quote:

Originally Posted by alydar_David (Post 77625)

Post Mortem: with scratches known

With the exception of the hopeless #1 and #11 here are all the horses using the last paceline for all.

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RACE:  012910     DIST: -  6.0 FURLONGS    COMMENTS:  FG 10th



SETUP  46 111





NAME        F W     E P     S P     T T     F X     W X

---------------------------------------------------------

#2 Buzz    55.17   55.81   54.85   55.09   55.40   55.28

#3 Yuko    54.86   56.36   54.11   55.04   54.58   54.72

#12 Far    54.79   56.80   53.78   54.99   54.49   54.64

#6 High    55.13   56.90   54.25   55.35   54.78   54.96

#7 Myle    54.68   55.79   54.13   55.11   53.82   54.25

#8 Mark    54.67   55.04   54.49   55.10   53.70   54.19

#9 Kill    54.95   57.26   53.80   55.18   54.57   54.76

#5 Caju    55.38   56.95   54.59   55.53   55.09   55.23

#10 Bid    54.41   53.55   54.83   54.69   53.67   54.04

#13 Eve    55.14   57.01   54.20   55.36   54.80   54.97

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         F 1     F 2     F 3     S C

Pace    58.80   56.50   56.12   57.26                  SC B/L

=====================================        =================

#9 Kil  58.80   55.80   50.34   57.26        #9 Kill    0.00

#12 Fa  58.20   55.50   50.77   56.80        #13 Eve    0.66

#13 Ev  58.20   55.91   51.39   57.01        #5 Caju    0.82

#6 Hig  57.98   55.91   51.59   56.90        #6 High    0.95

#5 Caj  57.97   55.97   52.22   56.95        #12 Far    1.24

#3 Yuk  57.30   55.50   51.86   56.36        #3 Yuko    2.39

#2 Buz  56.91   54.79   53.88   55.81        #2 Buzz    3.86

#7 Myl  55.18   56.39   52.47   55.79        #7 Myle    3.94

#8 Mar  53.47   56.50   53.93   55.04        #8 Mark    5.92

#10 Bi  51.22   55.70   56.12   53.55        #10 Bid    9.90

Here are the rankings:

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 RANKINGS

                                    ========



             F W   E P   S P   T T   F X   W X   L P   D R  MED E

             ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===  =====

  #5 Caj      1     3     2     1     2     1     5     1   68.57

  #13 Ev      2     2     4     2     3     2     7     1   68.95

  #6 Hig      2     3     4     2     3     2     6     1   68.82

  #2 Buz      2     6     1     4     1     1     3     1   67.46

  #9 Kil      3     1     6     3     4     3     9     3   69.48

  #3 Yuk      4     5     5     5     4     3     4     3   68.50

  #12 Fa      5     4     6     5     5     4     8     4   69.13

  #8 Mar      6     7     3     4     7     6     2     2   67.09

  #7 Myl      6     6     5     4     6     5     4     5   68.01

  #10 Bi      7     8     1     6     7     7     1     2   65.58

PHP Code:


		
			
 RANKINGS

                                    ========



             F W   E P   S P   T T   F X   W X   L P   D R  MED E

             ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===  =====

  #5 Caj      1     3     2     1     2     1     4     1   68.57

  #13 Ev      2     2     4     2     3     2     6     1   68.95

  #6 Hig      2     3     4     2     3     2     5     1   68.82

  #2 Buz      2     4     1     4     1     1     3     1   67.46

  #9 Kil      3     1     5     3     4     3     7     3   69.48

  #8 Mar      4     5     3     4     5     4     2     2   67.09

  #10 Bi      5     6     1     5     5     5     1     2   65.58

Even though SYNII didn't get the pace right these are the rankings I'd use to create a FG 6F Model (let's keep it simple and not break it down any further).

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                    F W   E P   S P     T T   F X    W X    L P   D R    MED E

                   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===  =====

  #5 Caj           1      3      2        1       2       1       4      1      68.57

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                    F W   E P    S P    T T   F X    W X    L P    D R     MED E

                   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===   ===  ========

 # of Wins        5      3       2       2      2       1       1       5     68.57-69

Very nicely done, with regard to the model description and how to read one.

You are correct! What you have shown here is a “model”, which is based on each individual’s handicapping of prior races.

What “Isosa” posted up is actually a “track profile”, which in the absence of a “model” based on handicapping, will do very nicely, as can be seen by illustration in this race. So I stand corrected.

Even though I used the term “model” in an effort to not confuse those who may not be familiar with models and track profiles, in the long run I probably should have used the “accurate” terminology. In the long run, one may become confused as they learn about these tools and stating them incorrectly from the outset can only serve to confuse them further. That is my mistake.