Saturday - Hawthorne - "E" Proj Pace
 

Here is the 8th from Hawthorne this Saturday.


#5 Distorted Groom is the "pace Horse" off a 22.0- 45.2 (in fifths) from the last race at this track and distance. He has also equalled or bettered this pace on 2 other occasions at this track(lines 6 and 9).

I punched in the pace so lets see what lines light up ok? also please check the tandem finishes and see if they help YOU as individual matchers. Hat's personal instruction to me was simply this: "Rich if they help you in a SPECIFIC race use them otherwise forget about it".

Best of luck/skill to ALL :)

...

,,,

I looked at this race from two view points. First I matched all the 6.5 f lines and then again with just 6f lines.

the FPLR in either case and either distance appears to be the 9 by quite a ways.

The 6.5f analysis might have 4 on the lead and the 6f analysis might have 3 on the lead and the 9 likes to sit 3rd or 4th which is perfect for the early set up.

The 3 and 4 can press this pace without getting caught in it, but I like the 4 better from positioning stand point.

9 to win and 4 to place plus exacta boxes. these are the two medium priced favorites and I would not expect ML to hold up. Kinda chalky.

Bill

This is the kind of race I would love to play....

First I look at the M/L Favorite to see if he could win....

OK..lets look at the 9....claimed 2 back for 14...off one month and in for 10??
Now hes in for 5 ...Do you think something is wrong here?

I'll go with the 3 & 5

Mike

Hi Mike Lets say the M/L odds hold up
The 9 is 4/1 ML would you take $10-$11.00 if it wins

Thanks
Bill

hmmmmmm.......no!! :)

ok
 

Thanks Mike

Ooops...looks like our pace horse (#5) is scratched...

in that case..2 & 3 for me

gl

mike

HAW race #8
 

With the 5 scratched the pace is going to be slow; somewhere around 22.8 or 23.0 in the first quarter. The 2 doesn't look like he can fight.

I'm looking for a horse that can win against slow paces and stay fairly close to the leaders.

My choice is the 10.

Tim

I am going with the #3 because he comes off the best sustained last fraction and is placed properly today.

With the 5 out I used the 2 and the 6 to come up with a projected pace (in tenths) of 22.5 46.3…I do not feel these 2 will hang on and win so I’m looking for an OTE winner…

#1 fought all the way last time which I like. I also looked at line 3 against 22.3 46.0. The horse won that race from 4th at the 1C.

#4 Won from 3rd position against 22.0 45.4 last time. Line 9 was also a win against a slightly slower pace of 22.7 46.5.

#4 is my top pick and #1 is my second choice…

Going with the 3 and 1. Like them running late

Good Luck
Ken

Nice going Pete and Bill for his mentioned of the 4..
Like I said in my 1st post....it was a value race seeing that the favorite had a negative against him.

For an exercise....

This will take some record keeping but can be worth it, especially if you do a track on a regular basis...

when the favorite loses the race , write down his running style and a possible reason why he lost...

you'd be surprised on how many times the same reason come up

A "value" race

mike

Weekly review
 

I'm having some computer issues so I will not be posting my review.
For those who may be interested, here are the horses and lines I would use. Perhaps you might like to review the horses and lines I chose and see if you understand the reason I chose these horses and lines based on the reviews I have posted previously.
If you want to run these horses and lines through whatever software program it is you are using, please do so and see how it would work out for you.
The one thing to understand is this, when I choose horses and lines, I am NOT trying the find the find the fastest speed rating, final time or total energy for each horse based on a previous line. As per the Paceline Manual, I am just using the "most recent" race where the horse ran 1st, 2nd, 3rd or showed good early form by being 1st or 2nd at the first and/or second calls. If this is not the last line, then there must be a valid reason to go back ONE LINE. Ok, here we go.

#1 - line 1
#2 - line 1 (not that I would use it, but line 3 has no fractional times)
#3 - line 1
#4 - line 1
#5 - scratched
#6 - NO LINE- ML=20/1
#7 - line 2
#8 - NO LINE
#9 - NO LINE
#10 - line 1
#11 - line 2

I have no idea how this would work out in ENERGY, so if anybody runs these horses and lines through that program, please, post up the results. Thanks.

Hi FTL..

I was waiting for your post and your analysis....

here it goes....looks like Energy is on the button again with the 4

BTW..what problems are you having with your PC?

That was QUICK!
Thanks for posting it up.

Yeah, ENERGY got it!
Just remember, it's the lines.
Without the right lines, you may not get the right result.

Oh, the PC question.
It's not my "PC", it's my laptop, which is less than two months old. All of a sudden it won't boot up.

Thats bad....for a laptop to act like that..

Do you have recovery disks to install it back to factory?

Thanks Mike, that sounds like a good exercise indeed and I will take a look at that...

The pace horse scratches but that doesnt stop Pete C for nailing the nice 11 buck winner with his pick and Bill L for having him in his final 2 horse mix. Awesome work guys and a huge thank you to all who took the time to jump in and participate.

Once again the post time favorite is a LOSER in the Win slot a pattern consistently being repeated here with the "Matcher" races for over 3 MONTHS now (post time fav winners are a total of THREE from 21 races I posted up in the "TM100 and "E" proj pace" series)

Odio preferiti vincente ;)

Buon Natale e vi benedica tutti!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQ7BQ...feature=relmfu

[QUOTE=RichieP;76547]
Once again the post time favorite is a LOSER in the Win slot a pattern consistently being repeated here with the "Matcher" races for over 3 MONTHS now (post time fav winners are a total of THREE from 21 races I posted up in the "TM100 and "E" proj pace" series)

QUOTE]

Hey Rich, thanks for another good race...Is there any reasopn for the low favorite percentage in this cycle? Is there something specific you're spotting beforehand or has it just worked out that way?

Keep focusing on repeating patterns of SUCCESSFUL races
 

[QUOTE=PeteC;76566]Hi Pete
Hat wanted me to play win bets at 3/2 when I first started with him. I wasnt good enough to pick enough of them to profit from so he upped it to 2/1.

I told him I still was not going to profit at that level with my picking abilities and asked him for some clues to look for as far as who will be the fav and some things to look for in both ml favs and horses I thought might be favored come race time.

He helped me with some things and then I found Jim Lehane's book "Calibration Handicapping" where one chapter explains how you go about making a line on your contenders. It is an excellent read and some of that helped me a bit too.

Bottom line is I hate low priced chalks so I try to post up here races with fuller fields, more than 2 or 3 real competitors for the WIn slot and some negatives about the horses I think are going to be bet heavily. Doesnt mean we will win them all but ........ :)

You are doing great wotk my man~! Keep focusing on repeating patterns of SUCCESSFUL races ok? Keep focusing on repeating patterns of SUCCESSFUL races. Keep focusing on repeating patterns of SUCCESSFUL races

Good Matching Pete and a very Merry Christmas to you and yours
Richie