Saturday Santa Anita Turf Mile - Grade 2- TM113
 

Here is tomorrow's Oak Tree Mile - Post is 8PM Eastern

Very best of luck/skill matching em up

:)

...

My contenders and eval lines

The 7 is an early running type that can run free, but should be pressed by the non-turfer 9, so I think the race is OTE.

The 3 won last out from off the pace after losing a pair trying for the lead; I think the 3 tries to come from off the lead.

the 3 closest to lead are the 3 that runs 4-3-2 at todays pace of about 47-110.1, the 6 that runs 4-3-1 off a 111.6 and the 8 who runs 5-4-3 off a 110.2

the 6 has never run against this pace, so my picks are the 3 and 8, but the 6 will be an exacta horse for me and the 5 should close well and could place.

Good luck,

Good morning guys...

I see the race very similar to you Bill. I saw that the only two horses have run well against 47-110 are the 3 and the 8. They finished a nose apart in the DMR race 73 days ago and would be the two-horse bet.

I was about to toss the 6 because, as you mentioned, it has never faced close to the 110 pace it will today. But, it did beat the 8 in the last race tandem. I don't have a strong feeling in this case whether to favor the tandem information (the 6 is in the mix with the 3 and 8) or the pace of race information (where the 3 and 8 stand out).

We'll see how it comes out...

The 3, 7, 8,and 9 all look like they could be in the mix up front. The 6 looks like a true sustained horse with a strong power move two back. In the last race, the 6 ran against a 22.3 final fraction and gained 1.5 lengths.

The 6 is my choice.

Tim

How come nobody liked the 5
 

5 wins 9/2; 6 second, 3 third, 7 fourth.

Morning Bill
Just replying to your post about "why nobody liked the 5". EVERYONE who posted here before the race agreed the WINNER would run OTE. Run my contender eval lines through ANY raw matching program and see who the best OTE runner is. Here is RDSS raw (unajusted)with my lines

Richie, why would you use the eighth race back for #5? I'm not suggesting that's the correct or incorrect line to use. I'm just wondering what you were thinking.

Richie:

In my match up I used line 5 for Jeranimo, which if I had appreciated it enough would have been enough to make the 5 the winner. He was one of three who had run against a 110 and change pace. I was more concerned with the 6-4-5 positioning and did not do the alternate analysis of using the lengths back and time to see where in today's pace the five would sit.

The projected pace was 47-110.1 and my other two contenders ran 4-3-2, 4-3-1 and 5-4-3, but if I had taken the 5's pace of race and converted the time, the 5 who ran against 46.2 could have been 4 lengths closer at the half mile, which is in fact what happened. However, the 5 had not shown the propensity to trade running positions at slower earlier times, except in one recent event that he ran closer to the lead on a pace of 48.6-112. In three other races with a 110 and change six furlong time, the horse had run from the 4-5-6 slot. I thought the five would be behind at least two of the other contenders. The 133.6 final time for the 5 in that race would make him win, but I let that detail not enough thought. I will try and not make the same mistake again. You gotta know when to use the Voddoo.... Need to start a new streak!

Bill

Hi David
In THIS race I had no projected pace to go by ( I was not going to project off the #9, didnt even have him in my reads as I thought he was just a wild early buck who had no chance to win this race. There were a FEW runners who could easily overpower him in the last fraction)

When I post races here and have time to work the race I use RAW figs and work the races when Hat was schooling me. We used ALL the pps, ignored days back etc and found the best power line IF we felt the horse was a true contender for win. In these real high class races I want the best line where the horse actually WON or ran a close 2nd ,3rd etc. The ONLY line I will NOT use in these races are the MAIDEN win race.

Here are the pps for the winner RAW and as you see the line used was his best TPR or Power line. I do use software for help as I used to put in 50-75 hours a week racing and now the number is less than 2 hours :). It's all good, life has changed man (for the good!)

the last screen shot shows the original lines of my eval lines and as you see the finishes are all wins or just misses.

Hope this was helpful

Very helpful, gracias amigo.

Glad to hear life is rolling your way. :>)