NewPace / RDSS
 

Just dont know how early horses are picked

mtr 5th 7/30

the 2 is more early than the 5??

late horses are fine but something needs improvement with early horses

Mike,

The best I can explain this is as follows:

*** Ernie, I chose to edit your post here containing some detailed explanations for Mike about how NewPace arrives at its Early contenders. I know Mike got the info, but since this is a public forum and everyone can follow this discussion, you could create a link to this in the NewPace forum to follow up on the specifics of the analysis of this particular race. Sorry - I don't like editing posts, hope you understand ***

Ernie

Ernie......

what your stating is the criteria for late horses...

New Pace is the battle of the early position horses vs the late closers
early horses are the one that shoot for the lead and may wire em...

the objective of New Pace is to get the 2 best early position horses vs the 2 best late horses and play em..

in this race (which is pace less) your throwing money away on #2 which most likely wouldn't be close

mike

I am only using the criteria for determining the E1 and E2 horses as per
Dave Schwartz's New Pace video seminar Video seminar. If you haven't purchased the New Pace seminar then we are on 2 different wave lengths.

I am not even saying I will bet on any New Pace contenders.

If you have purchased the New Pace seminar then I would love to kick it
around with you in the New Pace section.

Ernie

Mikesal57,I sent you a private message this morning in response to your message to me. Did you get it.
Thanks
rmath

Mike,
why #1 and #3 are scratched off?

yes i did

Pino, they are not scratches ..I threw out horses over 90 days...

But in this case one of them won :mad:

even if i didn't , they were not contenders

Well Dave is coming out with yet another seminar on New Pace improvements...

Will he show us better results ?
maybe a chart on bets and ROI and not say it just works

are these his improvements or NP users suggestions?

and YES...its not free :(

After the release at Pace Advantage it died down after maybe 3 weeks...Ted over here has taken it by the nutz and is trying to improve it 10 fold and try to help guys win with it
It just leaves a bad taste in my mouth that after 3 months we have to pay again..Did guys at PA hold back for this...will more improvements be down the road?
The workshop is $114, but its not for new users ....so who else is going to attend but registered users and we get a discount
Come on Dave ..Give us a break!!

mike

Workshop
 

I agree Mike, I know about the workshop and would like to see if there are any improvements, but I just recently paid for New Pace and do not want to pay for the improvements either. To my thinking this would be something like selling my car and then telling you the keys will cost you an extra 500.00.

lmao

New Pace Update
 

I also received an email offering an excellent discount for his New Pace update.

My response to him was that he should not charge for these updates since a number of people have already purchased "New Pace" and some, I believe,have also purchased "Improve/Decline" and "BOW".
He also has access to and will continue to have access to the research stats published by our members....results of boxing the 4 New Pace contenders to name one.

I requested that the updates should be made available (no charge) as a courtesy to those members who have already purchased his product(s).

Ernie

Ernie,

I must disagree.

Purchase of a product does not entitle you to all future developments for that product. If that were the case, what would be the incentive to continue development?

Just so you know, I (and my team) have roughly 100 hours in the improvements that are being shared, as well as another 9 hours in the development of this particular workshop.

My customers and clients are usually thrilled to pay the small amounts of money charged to ensure that they are on the cutting edge. I hope you can see your way clear to view it from that standpoint. BTW, there IS an Improve/Decline workshop coming as soon as I can quantify the advancements into an updated strategy. (That is still several months away, I believe.)


The almost unanimous feedback I have received from people regarding NewPace, as well as the other products I produce, is that the products are being thoroughly used and enjoyed. The feedback also indicates that these products are considered "good value" for the dollars spent.

People in our industry - that would be the horse handicapping world - are clamoring for good materials. In order for such products to continue being produced, there must be a reasonable financial reward for producing such materials. "Free" will simply not work as a business model.

That said, consider just how much really good information we do put out for free. Next Wednesday will be episode 3 of our Handicapping Live TV cyber show. This show is about The Monty Hall Problem. On that show I will offer up a way to concentrate 2/3 of your winners into 1/3 of your contenders. Free. Did I mention it is completely FREE?

I am trying to raise the bar to a high level and keep it high. We are not some "system mill" cranking out products that come with "get rich quick" claims. We are providing serious, deep research behind the products that go out.

The bottom line for all this is that we live in financial times that are difficult for many (most?) of us. We are trying to offer good value at the lowest possible cost while still justifying being in this industry and producing these materials.

I hope you can see that money spent with us supports that on-going effort and results in everyone getting more and better materials to improve their game.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Perhaps I can clarify this a little better... I certainly tried in the product description.

The $114 price INCLUDES the NewPace video seminar, which is (basically) an all-day seminar.

The update workshop is $27. Period.

I think a better analogy would be, "You buy a car, and the company says, 'How would you like to add some more horsepower?"



And when I show you the results that we get when using HSH, would you expect that the results would be the same in RDSS?



You know, I did not realize there was so much negative feedback coming from this.

In the future I will reconsider any advanced workshops. Obviously, I have misunderstood the customer base.

I have no objection to Dave charging for this update seminar,he does have to put in hours to get it together so why shouldnt he be compensated for it.

RDSS/NewPace users are a significant percentage of our users. If the feedback from the RDSS community is this negative, I will consider canceling this seminar.

I learned the hard way that not listening to customers does not work out well in the long run.

So, easy enough:

Does anyone have positive opinions of this or is general opinion "Workshops should be free or there shouldn't be any workshops?"

I value your feedback, either way.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

OK...I understand your viewpoint and I agree you present quality products.

Regards,

Ernie

Jeff and Ernie


can you post your positive results for us?

mike

Short follow up:

I have received several very positive emails from people regarding the posts in this thread. I am going to assume that this falls into the category of "you can't please everyone" and go on in the manner of "business as usual."

I truly care about what our customers think so please DO share your opinions with me either publicly or privately. (I care about non-customers' opinions as well, but everyone in THIS thread is, logically, a customer of ours.)

Seriously, do not miss signing up for next Wednesday's show.
Show 3: The Monty Hall Problem

I just got back from the lake (and never had so many emails and PMs in a 24 hour period) :eek:

I have one small advantage, from a business model point-of-view, with RDSS and TrackMaster's data pricing, compared to Dave's approach with his collection of new video seminar-style products.

If I can create a software tool and if we all can foster a support and learning community valuable enough that people keep coming back year after year and paying the annual RDSS subscription (and keep buying TrackMaster data which I get a share of), then I can keep adding new things to RDSS or refine older ideas, and the repeating revenue stream from doing that (and the increasing interest from new folks, and from previous subscribers rejoining) makes it worthwhile to me to keep adding the new stuff and not charge extra for it. It also helps that folks can step in with a very small monthly commitment to TrackMaster data, while they decide if RDSS suits them and while they get up to speed with it and its history.

As I see it, Dave must also maintain a continual revenue stream to stay in business and keep innovating, but he can't re-license Newpace, or Improve/Decline or Basics of Winning, etc year after year. Instead, he must find alternate ways via new products and 'Part 2' of existing products. I'm sure HSH keeps ticking over regularly with HDW data sales and new licenses, but until or unless he publishes new software with a different data price point, a certain percentage of otherwise serious or interested horse players will prefer to purchase the small one-off products and try to implement the ideas themselves manually, via the spreadsheet tools, or via full blown software 'suites' like I am gradually positioning RDSS 2.0 to be.

I take the same view of incremental up-sales to NewPace, Improve/Decline, etc as I do to those who say $100/year and $2 a race card is too much money for RDSS - let the software pay for itself! Iif you can't find enough good ideas, and good hits from $77 for NewPace or $27 for NewPace Redux - whether or not you could also arrive at the same wagers by existing RDSS tools - well, I suggest you aren't trying hard enough, because the results certainly seem to be there, at least in the short run so far. I dare say you can get lots of hits from standard and proper implementation of the modern Sartin Methodology according to Doc's guidelines (yes, even 10-15 year old guidelines!) that you won't get from NewPace with its sometimes 'brute-force' approach. But at the same time you'll get a goodly number of hits from paying attention to and betting consistently the NewPace contenders that you would have to zig and zag through RDSS to attempt to capture. NewPace is a methodology which takes one type of path through the bewildering thicket of alternative analysis available - and RDSS takes another sometimes converging, sometimes diverging path through the same analysis if you make it your own and apply your method consistently. This has been true for what is largely a similar approach to the modern Methodology Doc Sartin evolved, for over 15 years now, so I know this is profitable. NewPace is in its early days and must still prove itself, and I am only privy to studies people are starting to post online here, some of them not real-time and back-fitted.

But how valuable is one good idea to you? Now that we are starting to get some software tools to study this with (that is, other than Dave's HSH software, which I know people are indeed doing lots of studies with) - if anyone who bought NewPace on faith or on Dave's salesmanship is having trouble implementing it or finding a profitable way to bet it, well that's why we have the NewPace Discussion forum, and the input of the author. We can grill it, make it prove itself. My programming may be at fault sometimes, or TrackMaster or our other Speed Ratings and variants may produce different results to HDW or BRIS or DRF data - and I am not shy to accept responsability for my mistakes or lack of understanding of Daves instructions - and I look forward to his critiques - but I say let him make money from his creative effort. Everyone who has the time and diligence should be able to go out and make as much money as Dave does by betting his ideas. And if the smart people here can't do that, and their documented failed attempts survive a peer review, then NewPace will not have succeeded and I think Dave (and a number of others) will be quite surprised. As will I.

The real interesting thing I am looking forward to (and since the very beginning when I grasped the NewPace ideas) is folks examining the components of NewPace and cross-mixing the ideas with what they get now from the Methodology and the Matchup tools. I have seen half a dozen different approaches to this in the past few months, not all public yet, since up until this weekend only 5 or 6 peeple have been even able to do that. Stay tuned for some interesting ideas and I suspect many more longitudinal studies as the initial 50 or so Beta testers start to report back.

BTW, I made back many times my price for NewPace, after I had programmed it initially in RDSS2, the first week I took it for a spin with real money, bugs and all. And Beth Schwartz told me Friday that I was the first one to sign up for the NewPace follow up seminar.

Also, FWIW, I don't make any money on NewPace from Dave nor does Dave from RDSS. As I mentioned at the top, my aim is to add value to the fantastic set of tools Doc originated, within a consistent philosophical framework: call it Pace if you must (I don't like to), call it the Matchup of Early versus Late. And then have people use (and pay ongoing for) the tools for years - but only if they carry their weight. That's fair, and a synergy I think can work. I'd like to think Doc would have contemplated such a collaboration.

Cheers,

Ted

Yes I can....Here are 6 races from my records that I won using New Pace concepts in conjunction with RDSS. This is before I was privy to RDSS2 and computed New Pace partial by hand and partially where I entered them into a spreadsheet where I set up formulas to compute The totals and percent. I won some of the exactas but New Pace had them. Sorry but it is not lined up but you get the picture.

Date Track Race E1/E2 L1/L2 WIN PAID EXACTA $1 PAID
________________________________________________________

7/25 MNR 8 8/2 6/7 8 8.60 8/7 26.50
7/25 MTH 6 1A/7 2/6 7 11.00 7/6 17.10
7/24 MNR 3 2/6 1A/3 1A 10.40 1A/2 20.10
7/23 ELP 3 4/2 5/6 2 7.80
7/17 MTH 5 4/6 5/8 6 13.40
7/10 MNR 7 4/10 7/9 10 14.40

Ernie

Dave,

Just for clarity, this thread is in the public RDSS 2.0 Forum, not in the private NewPace discussion forum. That's why I had to edit Ernie's reply to Mike's initial question in post #2 of this thread (too technical) and why rmath offered to reply by PM or in the private Forum.

As you know, various people have been posting their NewPace screenshots and contenders in public forums for several months now (sans technical analysis).

That said, all the posters in this thread are actually also NewPace customers of yours. And those readers who are not, are potential customers.

Cheers,

Ted

Thanks, Ted.

LOL - I do, apparently, need a keeper at times to make sure I am going where I should be.

Nevertheless, I am happy with the message and fine that everyone can see it.


Dave

OPPS ! That's ok.... I thought I was being general enough and offered to migrate to New Pace Forum in my next post but you are right...sorry about that.

Ernie

Ernie...

Thxs for your response on the winners...
but what I'm trying to get at is what is the overall ROI...which, I believe, is what we are looking for

Laughable self-promotion
 

Dave,

I have a four-year old nephew who likes to put on a small cape and run around the house announcing that he's a super-hero, although, fortunately he hasn't destroyed any skyscrapers lately. Your tiresomely hyperbolic claims for a product whose value is absolutely unproven brought him to mind.

I have a suggestion: buy a clue and drop the endless sales drivel about the profound handicapping discoveries of you and your rocket scientist colleagues and start posting large data samples of the ROI performance of New Pace, if you expect to persuade anyone of its value. A 3k sample would be a good start. Better yet, send the algorithm to Jeff Platt, the gold standard for quality and integrity in the field of software handicapping, and let him run it through his 300k race database, since this is an option he offers for free.

You probably think I'm being unnecessarily harsh, but think about it; you're offering an unproven product, which is nothing more than a simple algorithm, which is extremely user-unfriendly, without free trial period for $77, and of course now additional charges. The landmark works of handicapping by Beyer, Brohamer, Davidowitz, Quirin, et. al., which contain enormous amounts of valuable handicapping information, are available for about $25. Cool scam.

Cheers,

B Jennet

That is a good question...I handicap my races using the contenders from RDSS and New Pace. (Ted...I feel the following is very general and not technical)

As an example: MTH Race 8 from 7/25/11.
My Four top RDSS contenders were 7-3-6-8 and the New Pace contenders contained 8 and 7. I bet 8 to win and played a 7-3-8 exacta. The result was #8 won and the exacta was 8/7. I can go over in more detail my methodology in the New Pace section if you wish. But the point is: Who should I credit my ROI to New Pace or RDSS ? They both had the winner and exacta horses. I can say New Pace is helping me but as far as determining a stand alone New Pace ROI ...You got me there.

Instead.......................
I suggest you refer to the New Pace discussion section (If you haven't already) there is an excellent post by gl45 where he shows stand alone New Pace stats from MNR and the associated ROI.

Regards,

Ernie

Mike,

I do not have any results on New Pace but do hear from Pino as he has posted that it does well and I value his opinion

Ernie,
your posted results from MNR on race #8 (7-25-2011) & race #7 (7-10-2011) do not match with the Equibase results chart

Sorry they were typos.............The correct races are:

MTH (not MNR) race 8 from 7/25/11

and

MNR race 10 (not race 7) from 7/10/11.

I'll post the summary results later.

Ernie

Hi Ernie....

By no means I am attacking you, your a good guy and respected by me..
Your showing me 6 hits on 5 different days....
New Pace can give you plays with almost each race on every days card...
so these are your only plays on those days?
did you pass all the others?

mike

I don't have any problem paying the measly $27 for Dave's update. The first week of use of NewPace it easily paid for itself two to three times over.

I would like to post my proof but my major flaw is I do not keep sufficient records. I can probably search through ADW record of my activity to find the hits, oddly enough the big payoffs came from Will Rogers Downs (a track I never played before) and Tampa Bay.

Chris

Dave..

We over here at Pace and Cap are a different breed of people.
We are a close knit community that has shared good and bad times with each other. We've met several times around the country and had some good times and continue to each year. We bend over backwards to help each other out and at not one time has their hand open for services rendered.
If you and your team wants to develop products and improvements then by all means go ahead. But remember your doing your advertising on "Free" community boards. Oh yes , I forgot were getting discounts.
Its not the 27 bucks that bothers me, its not much to us OR ever you.
You've taken one concept from the book Percentages and Probabilities and used it to its extreme . Within less than a year you developed Improve/Decline and New Pace and now NP Improvements without a hint of results or feedback from others( I dont consider a one time $100 winner from a poster at PA valid ) . Your a programmer and have a vast database and has a team...how difficult would it have been to produce a program and provide results for everyone to see instead of just throwing it out there?
How much work was done on this when after 3-4 months theres a need for improvements?
On the other hand, Ted has incorporated New Pace into RDSS and has thrown it out to us and didn't ask for a red cent..thats class!!

P.S.- good to hear that Improve/Decline is coming back around again...:eek:

mike

No I played other races on those days, I passed some, I Lost some and won some I didn't post. The total number of races I played on those days was about 20+. What I posted was an extract sample in response to your "show me something positive" request.
I am referring to those races that I took the trouble to manually compute the New Pace contenders using a formula based spreadsheet that helped to shorten the time. It was still a pain. Now it is so smooth with RDSS2. Over a period a month I did about 60 races. And....I would not rely on New Pace alone but would only bet if I ran my paceline contenders through RDSS. I find that New Pace is helping me and I am fine with it.

I'll try to provide any info that you request if I could. In fact................
I can copy my original spreadsheet output for all 60 races and mail it to you if you want to...Whatever.

Best Regards,

Ernie

Ernie..

what I'm trying to get and I'm sure others will look for is....

What is the bottom line with New Pace?

Is the claim "innovation of the century" applicable?

or is it just another tool

mike

I need a way to quit my day job.....

Mike,

I do not understand your reference above. What did I take from Percentages and Probabilities? I have certainly learned from P&P, but I am not sure what you mean by your reference.

Everything is "just a tool." NewPace is a tool, as is Improve/Decline, as is RDSS.

The question, "How good is the tool?" is a valid one. If I post MY results, I must add "your results may differ" then you'll want to know why they will differ. When I say they were done with MY software, will that make you happy? I think not.

You have a guy - GL - who is already posting the heck out of results using HIS version of the TOOL accomplished with the software TOOL that you use. Yet, apparently, these results are not enough for you.

I have been in this business a long time. It is not a coincidence. We're running a business and business, by its nature, runs on money. Money is generated by selling stuff. Longevity is achieved from selling stuff repeatedly to the same customers.

We must be accomplishing this reasonably well or this would not be year 22 for us.

We produce really good stuff that is available at reasonable cost. We try to treat the customer right. Apparently, we aren't for everyone. Apparently, our stuff isn't for you.

Good fortune at the races.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

I gotcha...The best advice I can give you is.."DON'T QUIT YOUR DAY JOB".

Unfortunately I don't know what the bottom line is with NEW PACE. It is too new and there is not enough data to support its authenticity. In any case I am not privy to such data. It is certainly not the "innovation of the century"

From my perspective it is another tool that is showing positive initial results.
This is supported by:

Studies on exacta plays (gl's post)
Running New Pace by Pace & Cap members and posting results.
User feedback.

This is still an evolving product as per Dave Schwartz. IMO it is a very innovative idea.

Like any other product, depending on your understanding and on how you use it, One person can profit and another could get burned. Yet all parties have access to the same information.

That is as far as I can go on this one...only time will tell.

Regards,

Ernie

My 2 cents.
If you want to know if a new handicapping method will be profitable, you must work at it. How many races do you need until it prove itself I don't know. My little project was intended as a black box, with no handicapping necessary.
So far has produced small profits, five more months to the end of the racing meet.
The new screen shot is sample of the collected data from 3/1/2010 to 7/31/2011 for MNR.

cheers

BJ,

I'll presume (feel free to correct me though) that you also believe I have either been duped or am in collusion with Dave to either shill his product which may be harmful to one's bottom line, or else willfully distract Sartin Methodology practitioners from their tried and true tools. After having worked so hard for years to build up what I have done so far, and having gained Doc Sartin's respect, I can't imagine why I would want to do either of the foregoing. So I'm confused there. Make no mistake - Dave did not just parachute into PaceandCap shamelessly self-promoting NewPace - I invited him, I asked to include NewPace as another tool among many in the modern Methodology. And like all tools, users must make it their own, bet according to the feedback from their records, meld it with their other approaches. That's the process I see happening here.

In very short order, you will see larger and larger scale studies and ROI proofs using RDSS and NewPace. Some folks have not been doing nothing with this for the past several months. But I expect everyone's mileage to differ: RDSS' BLBL or VDC screen also gives you 4 or 5 contenders, and some folks have this process automated (either in a canned, private software routine) or mechanically by hand. But there is a very wide variance in how one exploits that intelligence in wager decisions. So a 3000 race study of BL/VDC output would show different ROI results for different folks - and different wagers won and lost.

And the same with NewPace. It's up to Dave to answer for his choice to not supply the large scale studies you require. I got no time to waste on that debate - I'm too busy programming the damn thing, co-ordinating users' research presentations (i.e. spreadsheets of whole season runs using Newpace) and helping folks figure out how to use the rest of RDSS. We're moving on, we're doing it. If the whole thing turns out to be a sham, a hoax, I'll tell the world and take responsibility for having wasted people's time. You may participate or snipe from the sidelines, but at any cost you should not give up what is currently working well for you.

Meanwhile, may I recommend just a tetch less antagonism in your next post. You may critique and disagree with anyone, but you know the decorum required here.

Cheers, and stay tuned ...

Ted

Here are the summary results for those races.

Ernie