New Pace with RDSS
 

Ted,

I have a question for you how would you go about tying in the New Pace readouts with the RDSS screens.Or would New Pace just be a stand alone handicapping tool.

Some folks have discussed that very point in a few recent posts (check the one started by Pino re MNR).

Since VDC, for example, hits approaching 80% Top 3 and ties for Win, one of the NewPace contenders which is NOT also top 3 ranked VDC is likely a lesser chance for Win. Also, recency has a high impact value, according to stats by For The Lead and also Dave Schwartz, I believe. A NewPace contender off for 190 days is a lower candidate for Win or Place (and declining bet for Show as well).

That's off the top. Others have reported a good co-relation between EPR and LPR, and thus also between the classic E/L Differential.

You could use NP as a stand-alone black box, but ties always need breaking and contenders ranked highly because of not-recently-duplicated performance can be down-graded or eliminated - if you approach this on a consistent basis.

Some ideas to get the ball rolling ...

Ted

Not sure where you got this idea, but my answer would be "No, they do not have the IV edge normally attributed to them."

Episode 3: How Big a Factor is Recency?
http://thehorsehandicappingauthority...ing-episode-3/

Or here on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFB7agqTF-k

Dave,

Would you then be in disagreement with the following statistics:

"Over a recent 2 year period"

WIN PLACE
77% 75% raced in the last 30 days
88% 85% raced in the last 45 days
92% 89% raced in the last 60 days
95% 91% raced in the last 90 days

97% 94% raced in the last 187 days

"Over the past couple of years, which takes in over 80,000 results"

75% of place horses have run in the last 30 days
85% of place horses have run in the last 45 days
89% of place horses have run in the last 60 days
91% of place horses have run in the last 90 days

If not, well this is the degree of recency I was referring to.
If so, I welcome your alternate summary.

I will get to those links of yours ASAP.

Ted

http://www.horsestreet.com/BBSImages/Rec-0200.png

Look at the IV column and tell me if you think there is a lot of difference.

Ted,


How would you go about using it with EPR and LPR?


I saw Pino's posts that were very good and was trying to figure another way of getting it down to 3 horses instead of just kicking the favorite out.

Yes , I too was wondering this, and thought that using the VDC, BL/BL to help narrow it down to 3 contenders, especially if you to box them, it would be more economical for me to do so, as playing 12 ex-boxes ate up my small bank money quickly, and even further more if one was to win wager on them too, as I did,

Granted my session plays were with small BR and it only took 1 race to bet 20 ( a 1/4 of my bank ), 4 win wagers and 1 ex-box, and I was defeated quickly, but I feel that having come back here and staying in touch with what RDSS has been doing in EL 2.0, it seems that I kinda jumped into the pool before it filled up completely , and the results posted during the studies being done here , do look promising, so this time plenty of caution, but I can not wait to get in and try a few things out.

Great Job Ted

jeff & pat...

if I can recall...if out of the 4 contenders there are 2 at low odds..pass

in other cases, win bets on over 4-1 horses and 4 horse box ex...

this still can come out to $20 a race

Mike,

The problem there is if you can catch a big number on top of a low odds horse ex still can be very profitable.

This past winter Jeff and I were talking about different tracks and he point me to Turfway Park. I have few races that I'm black boxing as I did with MNR method. I have 21 more cards to go.

Few more races (35) added to previous post. This black box doesn't win much but isn't lose either. 13 more race cards to go

I could easily see now how I would have just had a streak of bad luck when I did my 3 session plays with the following

All Race Classes

Races 85

Lost 72

Won 13


With that scenario, and my small bank of 80 a session, I easily see now the bigger picture of a few quick losses in a row and bam down I go, but if the Bank is big enough and persistence, there is a reward there, to me this is progress.

As it would explain my 3 quick session losses with New Pace, in just say 4 races lost, and looking at the numbers , it would be easy to lose 4-8 in a row before a nice payoff, so I am not as discouraged as before , thanks for this information and hard work , honestly


Patrick

I'm sure there is valuable context to your chart in the video link you provide, which I'll get to, but I'm afraid I can't grasp the impact of your chart to say other than: if faced with an Early or Late contender, off say 190 days, I am less likely to treat it as an equal opportunity to Win (or put equal weight on it on top in Exacta combinations) than I would for any other NP contender returning sooner. That was what I was referring to earlier as recency being impactful, perhaps 'impact' having a different meaning than you mean: I'll hit far fewer > 180 day Layoff horses than < 180. I have many other tools in the bag to help downgrade putative NP contenders, and that was the original question.

Another factor to consider (responding to shoeless' initial query) is that some of the High SRs may come from compromised or non-equivalent races: a horse last week running at DMR (who Bill commented on, can't remember who??) looked swell as a ES% #1 and E1 contender but earned the high rating in a 4f dash last year in a DMR maiden race. at elast using TrackMasters's SRs, that high rating was not equivalent to other high ratings, and the odds, other RDSS readouts and the result were all consistent (finished poorly).

Unless you're just pumping through the volume of races with little analysis (one way to go), even a little other comprehensive handicapping lets you qualify usually at least one of the 4 NP contenders - and lessens the bet cost. It seems.

Ted

190 days off I totally agree with. And it shows in the chart.

But most people try to draw a line at (say) 30 days and that is clearly (according to the table) folly.

Dave

I clicked on the link in the RDSS 2.0 program for the New Pace program; but all I saw was the video seminar. Is the program included in this or is this just the seminar discussing the software?

Jeff,

Dave Schwartz' NewPace is a video seminar, not software. RDSS 2.0 has a new software component which implements the NewPace rules and concepts ('cause doing it by hand is murder and we have races to win!)

The link is to a blurb which gives an overview of NewPace in RDSS2, and the link there is to Dave S' online store if you'd like to buy his video seminar. You need to buy that seminar (i.e. pay Dave for his work) before you can use the RDSS 2.0 NewPace software module.

If that's you interest, just send me the email receipt from Dave when you buy it (if you do).

Cheers,

Ted

New Pace
 

my last run at Turfway Park.

Data was collected from 12/26/2010 to 2/27/2011

Black box, no handicapping necessary. If the favorite is in your New Pace 4 contenders, eliminate the favorite and box the three remain horses. I use BRIS numbers which are different from Track Master, so results might vary.

no much profits, but beats losing.

I am sorry here but this is not winning, as it took 828.00 TO WIN 89.00

Now that is great, but you lost 114 races, how many in a row as this would and has affected me and my smaller banks, is there a way to overcome this, with 114 lost races, a streak of 20 or more could be achieved, and that I feel would drain me dry, unfortunately.

Maybe all tracks or focusing on certain race type's may eliminates such large losses , I am looking at Saratoga current and will look at last year too in time, I may have to do this by hand still as I am not yet up to using my spreadsheet yet, but will have a tutor soon, I hope.


For example today at the Spa

8 wins for New Pace and 1 race not able to do, as it did not open

pays ranged from 2.60/5.00/29.60/5.00/5.10/8.70/38.00/6.80 = 97.20

That leaves 9 races at 2.00 win bets 9x8 = 72 plus 25.20

also no big exacta's either, biggest of the 2 was 25 for a 2.00 wager and 19.80 for 2.00

12 x 9 = 108.00 - 22.40 = 85.60 negative


so win betting today showed a small profit, but needed a 72.00 to wager

Now if the favorite was dropped and only 3 horse bet then 1 of the exacta's would not have been hit, maybe both of them , leaving a 54.00 loss 1 day, much better than a 108.00 loss


Okay enough, there must be a way here, maybe not, 1 thing for sure more work is needed.

Thanks to all the guys putting up great stuff

I only hope my stuff will help you too

patrick

Patrick,

PMFJI, but this is a $2.21 $net. While I have seen higher $nets on exacta wagers (and GL has posted such), that is over 10 cents per wagered dollar. If you are expecting more than that then you have very lofty and perhaps unrealistic visions.

I personally know of several people who make very high-quality livings at the races with much lower $nets.


On that topic - what ARE your expectations?


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Patrick,
Losing streak was 9 races. Keep doing just that and you'll be cashing big bucks.
Good luck

Dave you know darn well what my intentions are we discussed this many times, and for you to come here and say that I need to wager 828 to win 89.00 , you got to be kidding.

you saw how many races were lost 114 losses and 24 wins and that spread is too large for me, who is to say when those 114 losses take place, for all I know 1/2 of them could happen before I win, or 1/4 of them are over 25 races, very possible, for a dime in profit, come on, let me talk to people making big money with these numbers, I have found none so far.

But Dave I am not here bashing this as you may think, but stating what happened to me int he past as you well know, and for you not to remember, well , what can I say about that... here on RDSS 2.0 forum we discuss this stuff till we figure it out , we do not denigrate , if the right word, others for having a smaller bank roll , and not be able to throw a 1000.00 into something to make a 100.00 , if that, as it is not guaranteed.

How many 1000's must I play to pay my bills at a 100 a pop, well 10-15 at bare minmum, 10-15,000.00 to possibly make 1200-1500, man that is too much investment for me.


Forgive me RDSS software users for bringing this baggage, might not be right word, over here to this forum, it was not my intention to do this, I love this program, honest I do , and the people here are awesome, not to say the same about HSH people they were great to me also, thou me and Dave have butted heads before, it seems to be a weird learning curve for me to do this, as sometimes afterwords things get changed or redone, but it seems when Dave feel I may be degrading anything of his he gets a little testy, for which I understand, I do, but I am only trying to learn here, and make it work and become a winner, and sometimes that means saying things others do not like, oh well I am sorry , honest I am.


Ted I will let you decide if maybe I need to chill out for awhile , thou I will hope I get to continue with the testing of EL.2 and RDSS 2 as it is great work and fun to play with, I love it...

patrick

Sorry, Patrick. I will keep my opinions out of your posts.


Dave

OK thanks Ted! I will look into Dave's material. For some reason, I was thinking it was a software program. Less work is what it's all about-if it's profitable :cool:

I need Evangeline Bris File for May 13,2011. Any help will be appreciated.
Thxs