No confirmed "E" runners plus a "Marathon" race- Friday and Saturday
 

Here are 3 races running tomorrow and Saturday where there are no confirmed "E" types. Yes there is a runner or 2 who has shown the ability to take the lead.

Friday we have a poly sprint from Arlington with a big field of 12. Also a poly route from Woodbine with a nice field of 8 entered.

Then we move to Saturday with bonus coverage of a Grade 3 12f Turf stakes race at Churchill Downs. That night under the lights at Penn National we will look at a race with a full field of 10 runners (9 betting entries)going a route on the dirt.

Have a great Memorial Day weekend everyone and good matching! :)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBVi2...eature=related

Friday at Arlington Park here is Race 9 going 6f on the Polytrack

Friday AP Race 9 cont

AP Race 9 on Friday cont

Ok now we move to Woodbine on Friday for the 6th Race going 8.5f on the Polytrack

Woodbine Race 6 on Friday cont

Let's move to Saturday's racing.

Here is the 10th from Churchill Downs a 12f Marathon Turf Grade 3.

** Refresher on Hat's method of working these marathons can be found here:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2026**

Churchill's 10th on Saturday cont

The 10th from Churchill Saturday cont

We move to Saturday night at Penn National under the lights. Here is the 6th Race going 8.5f on the dirt

The 6th at Penn National Saturday night cont

6th at Penn Saturday night cont

Friday's races
 

AP #9:

The tandem race looks very fast. The 3 ran the best but has no other race in the form which is even close. 3 is out. My contenders are the 4, 6, and 7.

4: S type with no power move. I think this race will run E/P.
6: E/P handling a 23.1 (tenths). To slow. Out.
7: Consistent sort with lots of 2nd and 3rd position runs. Can handle 22.1 on dirt.

The 7 is my pick but I would pass this race if not in the public forum.

WO #6:

You're right. This is a paceless race.

I'll put the 7 on the lead in 24.8 49.2 1:13.5 1:44.5

2: Coming out of sprints and may get tangled up on the lead. Mostly, the 2 runs from way back. Out.

4: Has been closer in last two sprints. May be a factor but I can't get away from all those late lines last year. Out.

6: S type coming from 5th position against a 24.3. Contender.

7: E and no fight. Out.

8: S type showed a little bit in last. Deeper in PP's shows win from 4th position once and fifth position twice with a power move.

I'm on the 8.

See you tomorrow. Good luck.

Tim

Friday:

Arlington Race 9 -

Scratch #9 and #11

The 3, 7 and 6 should be on or near the lead today. The 3 sticks out to me as much faster based on fighting at the 1C and then missing by only a neck in the FPLR.

Woodbine:

#7 should be the lead horse, pressed by #2 who goes sprint to route. Matching OTE off a 49.2 113.5 (tenths) pace from #7’s last race, I like #6 off of line 3.

Pete

WO R6:

#6 Village Drive has a HUGE class edge. No world beaters in here and he'll be very tough to beat.

#7 has a huge against the grain run last out. Last against the grain run was 8/2/2010. Doesn't like to win, and is a risky win bet but is a must use in exotics off last.

#4, some decent efforts - especially the against the grain WIN on 10/31/2010.

#8, needs help to win; i.e., multiple moves, where he makes the last one. Not likely to get that today.


Odds will determine how I'll go here but, most likely, will take the 6 (depending on how strongly he's bet) over the others in TRI'S

agree with Petey on ARL....3 looks much the best.....taking him with the 5 in ex


sorry...I dont touch Woodbine :(

Saturday Races
 

Marathon at Churchill:

There is so little speed in this race that it's ridiculous. Any horse I pick can't be very far behind. Using the method for calculating the mile time, I come up with:

3: 1:34.4 Sustained
9: 1:34.3 Sustained
10: 1:36.2 E/P

The 3 is going to be in front of the 9. The 3 is my pick.

Penn National:

I am stuck on the tandem with the 1A, 6, and 7 in 22.9 for the first call. It was a very fast track on that day. The one does not measure up and is out. The 6 looks like he might get caught up in the pace. The 7 has run against other fast 1st calls and can close from the 4th position.

I'm on the 7.

Good luck,

Tim

Churchill Marathon:

Focusing on time and position at the mile mark, here’s what I get….

#3 Line 4 140.8 – 6.4 (tenths) = 134.4 (tenths) 3rd beaten 1 at 8.5 finish (2-2-4-3)
#4 Line 8 134.9 2nd beaten 1 at mile finish (8-7-7-2)
#5 Line 5 140.9 – 6.4 = 134.5 1st by a neck at 8.5 finish (9-9-4-1)

The 3 is faster than the 4 time-wise AND looks to be closer to the pace early. The 5 is very close to the 3 time-wise, but, again, the 3 runs much closer to the pace. The 3 it is.

***Question: For an 8.5 furlong race, you use the “backup time” (Final time – 6.4 seconds) but use the 8.5 finish position and beaten lengths?

Pen:

I’ll use the last race tandem as today’s pace (22.9 46.4 111.1). I see the 1,4 and 5 as e/p types getting cooked tonight.

I get down to the 6 and 7 as final OTE contenders. I’ll take the 6 as my top choice.

Have a good weekend everyone...

Charts for Saturday races
 

Here are the charts for the Saturday races. I was at the off-track today and it was an incredible finish after 1.5 miles in the marathon. I thought the 9 was also a contender and he was in the mix as well.

Attachment 22391

Attachment 22392

Congratulations Pete on the nice price at Penn National. You were literally a nose away from getting both races.

I haven't been doing anything with long distance races. There was a race at Belmont just before the Churchill race that figured according to the long-distance formula even though it paid just $4.80. I'll pay more attention to these races in the future.

Tim

Thanks a lot Tim! What a race that was at CD! You're right about that 9 horse too, which I missed initially. Looking at line two you get a mid-134 time similar to the other main contenders. I don't spend a lot of time on marathons either but that's why I'm glad Richie is posting these races. Something new to look for.

Thanx to ALL who chimed in!

Congrats to the winners of the AP race on Friday and a huge congrats to Pete C who nails the Penn race Saturday night and just gets nosed out for the Marathon win at CD same day at a nice price.

Let me see if I can find a nice one for tomorrow's Memorial Day races.

I really appreciate you guys taking the time to lay out the "why" part including your analysis/ thinking etc etc. That is KEY to helping both yourself and OTHER matchers who can feed off your writings when you win to see if they can "get there from here" so to speak

THANK YOU all for sharing :)