Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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classhandicapper 06-20-2010 03:59 PM

Energy use and turns vs. straights
 
Is there anything in the Sartin methodology that tries to account for the fact that horses tend to run slower on turns?

Let's assume we have two horses:

A. Runs consecutive quarters of 22 23 24 for a 109

B. Runs consecutive quarters of 23 22 24 for a 109.

The only difference between these two horses is that they flipped flopped the first two quarters. Horse B ran his fast quarter on the turn.

Are these two horses considered equal/similar or is horse B considered superior because a 22 on the turn uses more energy than a 22 on the straight?

That's one thing I've always been curious about. It's easy to prove that horses tend to run slower on turns. It's not so easy prove how much energy is consumed.

tom 06-20-2010 04:56 PM

Hi Class! Nice to see you here.

Factor X would be better for A (F1 and F3 average)
The energy profile by fraction would differentiate the two, and an oldie from the old days, Factor S, Contender Factor, which is F2 and 2nd call averaged.

I'm sure there are others in the newer stuff that I am not familiar with yet,

hansend 06-20-2010 10:07 PM

I have read this one in a follow up and Dr Sartin said that if the turn time is faster than the first two furlongs you flip the times around.

For The Lead 06-20-2010 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper (Post 66981)
Is there anything in the Sartin methodology that tries to account for the fact that horses tend to run slower on turns?

Let's assume we have two horses:

A. Runs consecutive quarters of 22 23 24 for a 109

B. Runs consecutive quarters of 23 22 24 for a 109.

The only difference between these two horses is that they flipped flopped the first two quarters. Horse B ran his fast quarter on the turn.

Are these two horses considered equal/similar or is horse B considered superior because a 22 on the turn uses more energy than a 22 on the straight?

That's one thing I've always been curious about. It's easy to prove that horses tend to run slower on turns. It's not so easy prove how much energy is consumed.


Are ALL turn times run "on a turn"?

lsosa54 06-20-2010 11:36 PM

Once you get out to 7F, not much of the turn time is on the turn. The purest is probably 5.5F.

Bill V. 06-21-2010 11:53 AM

lines
 
Cool question

Hansend you are very correct you would flip the calls

Also around the time of the Entropy program
It was published to eliminate horses with 2nd calls faster than the first
But Doc later would amit that doing this was not researched enough
and a false "never do this "

anyway I caompare lines in KGEN but both lines must be entered as

22 or 23 / 45 / 109
so KGENS line are exactly the same

tfm 06-21-2010 01:06 PM

The reason Michael Johnson was such a superior runner was because he was an exceptional TURN runner. Of course, he also participated in an event where turn ability really mattered: the 200 meter dash. And, of course, he was RESTRICTED to a lane in this event (as were the other runners).

How fast a horse runs on the turn as opposed to the straight would be relevant and interesting if horses were restricted to LANES. Since they're not and since pace is more often than not a result of how the race shapes up (and the position of a given horse within this setup and on the course), noting how fast a horse is going over a particular distance of ground with no regard to the overall context of the race is pretty much meaningless. Of course, for those who believe that numeric pace (raw or otherwise) is a larger set that SETUPS, it's gospel.

For The Lead 06-21-2010 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lsosa54 (Post 66998)
Once you get out to 7F, not much of the turn time is on the turn. The purest is probably 5.5F.

You are correct. The only distance with a "true" turn time (a.k.a. second fraction) is 5.5 furlongs.

You are also correct that 7 furlongs has "no turn" in the turn time. The first half mile (1st and 2nd fractions) are run on the straight.

Without an adjustment, it makes it difficult to compare turn time between one line at 5.5f and another line at 7f.

The second fraction (turn time) in a 7f race is going to be faster than in a 5.5f race and the difference in this time varies from track to track where 7f races are run.

classhandicapper 06-22-2010 06:32 PM

If you are willing to flip the fractions, then it appears you think 22 23 is equal to 23 22.

Part of me (the intuitive part) seems to want to believe that the horse that did a 22 on the turn had a tougher trip because turns tend to slow horses down. So to run 22 on a turn you'd have to really be motoring. But obviously I don't know or I wouldn't have asked.

Bill V. 06-22-2010 07:47 PM

reason
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper (Post 67009)
If you are willing to flip the fractions, then it appears you think 22 23 is equal to 23 22.

Part of me (the intuitive part) seems to want to believe that the horse that did a 22 on the turn had a tougher trip because turns tend to slow horses down. So to run 22 on a turn you'd have to really be motoring. But obviously I don't know or I wouldn't have asked.

I would have to think a horse running faster on the turn is fighting for position or maybe just broke slow in the gate
with out positions and beaten lenghts its all a guess

For The Lead 06-22-2010 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper (Post 67009)
If you are willing to flip the fractions, then it appears you think 22 23 is equal to 23 22.

Part of me (the intuitive part) seems to want to believe that the horse that did a 22 on the turn had a tougher trip because turns tend to slow horses down. So to run 22 on a turn you'd have to really be motoring. But obviously I don't know or I wouldn't have asked.

If I were you I would listen to the "intuitive part" of yourself.
Just keep in mind the distance of the race and "where" on the track the second fraction (turn time) is being run.
When horses leave the gate they run as hard as they can and reach a peak speed. From there they slow down through the remainder of the race. Horses that "close" and appear to be speeding up ARE NOT. They are just slowing down at a slower rate the the early pace setter, thus the "deceleration" concept.
Seldom does a horse run a faster second fraction than a first fraction, especially a full second faster. What made SECRETARIAT such an incredible horse and his KENTUCKY DERBY such and incredible race, is the fact that he ran every quarter mile of the race faster than the previous quarter of a mile. He had such a tremendous ability to run fast on turns. This set him apart from other horses. If you want to see that ability, go to YOU TUBE and look at Secretariat's Preakness and watch him on the first turn!! Absolutely incredible!! (let me know the next time you see a horse do this on the first turn :))
If you can determine, as Bill V. suggested, that a fast second fraction came about because the horse got off slow, then don't look for the horse to repeat it, unless you think it is going to get off slow again! (lol) In which case I'm not sure I would want to play that horse anyway!

RAMON201 06-27-2010 08:12 AM

some points to keep in mind
 
1. All tracks are not created equal. Some have tight turns and others have wider turns.
2.In the first quarter you have to keep in mind the run-up. The distance from the starting gate to the point where the race begins. At some tracks it will be short and others such as Churchill it will be longer and it will vary with the distances run. Human beings are placing the starting gate and 'good enough' sometimes is the rule of the day.
3. Does the track have tight or wide turns?
4. Whats the distance of the turn ? The point from the straightaway entering the turn to the point exiting the turn.
5. When it comes to comparing turn times knowing the track layout is essential.Shippers coming in from other tracks to the one your at will have run under different conditions as far as these distances go. Theres much more than this to keep in mind but the bottom line is tracks are different and that has always got to be a consideration.


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