Penn Natl Race 5 12/18
 

Post Time @ 8:23

Heres another ...

If anybody is wondering how and why I choose a race....

I look for a non-maiden sprint with a nice size field and hopefully a fast track
also a late race so that enough people have time to look at it
I know some people like Penn...so maybe they'll chime in too..

good luck

mike

Morning Mike.

I've picked up Penn now that Woodbine is closed and have been having some luck there.

Unfortunately, I can't play and post at the same time, I find it's disastrous for me, but I'll be thinking of you and will look at your posts when I have a chance.

Have you noticed that Parker, the jockey, has moved from Mountaineer to Penn. I find that whatever horse he is on gets bet down to nothing.

I have found that the later races are better too.

Havae a good day.

Barb

I
 

Hello Barb

Yes I too find Penn a lot better although turf and poly lines
do get to be troublesome

D Parker I think is headed to AQU, maybe just stopping over at Penn

Good Skill
and I hear you about posting and working races at the same time
its tough for me too

Mike,

Thanks for putting another one up. I will do my best.


Line chosen for each horse

1---2 Back
1A---2 Back
2---Last race
3---Last Race
4---Last Race
5---Last Race
6---Last Race
7---Last Out
8---4 Back
9---Last Out
10---2 Back



Gained and lost lengths at pace

1---45.1---111.4----Gained 1
1A--45----110------Lost 1
2---45.1---110----Lost 7
3---46.4---111.3----Lost 1
4---45.4---111.1---Lost 7
5---45----110.3----Lost 6
6---44.4----111.3---Gained 1/2
7---45.4---111.1----Gained 3
8---45.2---110.2---Even
9---45.2---109.2---Lost 2
10--44.2---109.2---Even


The eliminations should be 1-3-4-5-6. The 1,3,4,6 were gaining little or lost lengths against slower pace. The 5 is eliminated due to Losing 6 lengths against mediocre pace. Keeping the 7 as the Biggest gain, even though pace was just mediocre.

The 2 should probably be eliminated next, as lost many lengths against 110 pace, which others have done okay against.

The 1A should be eliminated next, losing Tandem to #10, where the 1A was no better than 6th at any point in that race.


Top 4 horses are 7-8-9-10.

Again, you can stop and put thses 4 horses into your software and let it do the crunching, but again I don't use software.


I will continue for those who dont use software.

The 8 should be the next eminated, as again, lost the tandem with #10 in last, and was no better than 5th, which was at the first call.


Contenders 7-9-10.

7---45.4---111.1----Gained 3
9---45.2---109.2---Lost 2
10--44.2---109.2---Even


I would then probably eliminate the 7, as the 7 although gaining, raced against a SLOWER pace than he will face today.

The 10 seems to be the all around fastest finishing 2nd at the 109.2 pace.


The selection is 10.


Good Luck

Thanks
 

Justin for another lesson. So if i am understanding this rt todays race is 6f so we pick a line at 6f. so if the last race is 6f thats the line we use? even if his 3 races below that had faster half mile times. Example, horse last race at 6f was run in 46, race below that was run in 45, we use the 46 line being that was his last race at 6fur? Now what if the last race the horse had at 6f was a troubled line, would u still use that?

Bob

good questions Bob..

Justin to save time...can u give us some "what ifs" that you think we might ask or that you have ran into

mike

Hey guys,

have to head back to work right now, but will def. give some what ifs this evening. To be honest, this method works many times, around 64% of my top 2 horses win. It doesn't always work, but does show a nice profit over time. I really hope things all work out. Will post some helpers tonight!


Justin

Justin ...do what you have to do...man

your post are very much welcomed and appreciated

as you can see , your technique has opened some eyes :eek: and got some interest
we needed new blood in here


we will be here for you and anyone else that wants to join in

mike

Thanks for the post and another possible view
 

One thing I see from Justin's posts that he is pretty unforgiving in his choice of pace lines. Another occasional poster on this site is pretty much the same way in his choice of lines. If horse has raced in the last 30 days he pretty much uses it for today. Maybe I've been giving too much credit to these animals (i.e. looking for too good of a race).

Anyway, I don't disagree with how Justin posted and came up with his winner, but I do have a follow up on one of my past posts that might have some effect on other than win placings tonite.

The 6 Valiant Humor can win either on or just off pace and the pace tonite looks about 22.2 45.3 or so, so he won't fade as bad as he did in last. VH won 10 back at Penn for Cl 5000 and comes back after a competitive Cl 4000 loss at FL. Race 10 is almost exactly the estimated pace for tonight and he won handily.

Unadjusted TPR numbers:
From race 10 (rough #) early 92; late 84, total 176
From race 1 early 95.5; late 76.5, total 172

This horse looks like a true 2:1 horse. The early today at first call is 4 ticks slower than race 10; the 2nd call is 4 ticks slower, so adding 8 ticks to the 76.5 = 84.5 (makes his final fraction a shade less than 25 seconds and his total TPR = 176.5). So I think the six does well with this pace tonight on or just off the lead. I think the 10 beats, but maybe not.

If you look at 10 he ran 25 second last furlongs in all his best races, but no better, even when the pace was slower! I think he tops out at 25, so that any other close-to-the-pace horse with a 25 second closing fraction will be competitive.

If they run 45.2 or 45.3 I think winning time is 110.2 or 110.3 which is still good enough to win and still the only horse finishing near that is the 6 with the 7 as a contra closer (3 places in last three races).

I think a 6-7-10 box is in order.

Amazing, isnt it, when someone else, meaning Justin, lays it out so effortlessly?

Justin, thanks for laying this race out for us.

Ok guys here goes another winner :o

what I do first in traditional PDF PP's is look at the race summery down at the bottom
The PPG ( Pace Pressure Guide) that Randy Giles book talks about will give me a clue on how the pace will run...its 27-0...which means a lot of P type horses but no real early...So what I do now is label each horse E S P ...and throw out any horses that need to win as a "S Type "based on the numbers above..When JB taked about throwing "groups" out ..I assume that he determined how the race sets up then out they went..if the race was determined "OTE" out went the "E's"

ok

1-7-9 look like S Type...out
1a-4-8 look like no-form horses ..nothing in last couple races

left with 2-3-5-6-10..isnt it ideal when u can get a field of 11 down to 5???

projected pace..( Tom's tip)

I see 22.4 45.3

#3 last 2 races 46+ 2c's...out

2-5-6-10
#5 fades last 2 races at this pace
# 6 abnormal last race and wins at slower pace..out

2-10

I see the 2 ahead of the 10 in the race

#2

mike

Hi Barb..

Dont worry about posting pics while your thinking :rolleyes:

But if you can put them up anytime after so that we can see whats folds

gl Barb &the rest of you guys

mike

If wondering Penn and WO match-up about the same...now the question..can the horses...

Mike,

We both had the winner! :)

Post up a hard 1 lol. Just kidding, but nice capping guys... Way to show off the match-up skills...


Mike...you havent lost it, not 1 bit!

Okay,

guys as requested I will post some FAQ's. I know this isn't the way "The Hat" did it, but just posting my way.


1. Don't go more than 4 races back.

That rule is key. No matter whether 5th back is at todays distance and all or not, DONT go back more than 4 races.


2. Use the MOST RECENT race at todays distance if horse has raced at todays distance in last 4 races.

This is another KEY point. It doesn't matter whether 4 back was 25 BEYER points higher, we want the horse's most recent form at todays distance, if possible.


3. If no races in the last 4 races are at todays distance, use best BEYER AT TODAYS SURFACE!!!


4. If no races are at todays Surface in last 4 either, use BEST BEYER in last 4.


5. Never use positions, for anything more than identifying style. Always use beaten lengths when it comes to judging how a horse runs against a pace.


6. If you follow these guidelines STRICTLY, you should have a very good paceline, in which all the horses can be judged by.


Hope this helps some. Anymore questions feel free.

thxs Justin...

Whats the ole saying here..."there are no rules"

What ever works for you..just do it!!

mike

nice exacta...:)

whata tag team we got here..

p.s- dont know how much i can get in tomorrow...we have a snow storm heading up here...hope that snow blower is working:o

mike,

Storm is staying down near Philadelphia I think.

Anyways, will be ready when you are again. We could make some money with some good tag teaming! Ya know?

Dont get snowed in with the wife... OH NO

thxs man...with that said..i cant sleep now..:eek:

Hey...heres a site where I get my PP's
If I cant get around to it...just post something for yourself and the guys
http://mysite.verizon.net/whobet/trks2day.html

Justin, a couple of other points to address or not:

In point 4 with no races at todays surface, do you opt for the race closest to today's pace? If last four are say, a half a furlong off in either direction, do you favor the shorter race or the longer or just the best Beyer?

In RDSS we don't have Beyers, per se, but adjusted speed ratings. Can they be considered as equivalent?

How do you choose races for horses with layoffs. You may or may not classify layoffs by some "days off" criteria. Do you have criteria for 30-60, 60-120, or other or longer layoffs?

Tandems. How long do you consider the results valid? Obviously recent is better, but sometimes we see several from last year or similar long periods. "Tread softly" or how do you see it?

Thanks for what you have posted already.

Bill L.

Excellent questions Bill.

First, layoffs mean nothing. A horse can, if fit, race back to previous form.

Also, best beyer works best. Your RDSS speed ratings are fine, as they are basically the same thing.

As for Tandems, I would say if the horse was just way out of the race, regardless of recency, then eliminate. If the Tandem race was over 6 months back, and the horses were close in the race, then both can stay in. The reason is a horse that is close in a Tandem a ways back can make up a few lengths over that time period, but if horse was just blown out in the tandem race, it doesn't matter how far back it was.

Hope this helps some.

Hello Bill and Justin,
I’m sorry for breaking into your discussion, but I just felt the need to do so.

Bill, first I’m going to give you my answer to your question about “how long tandems are valid”.
Right up until the horses pass the finish line in the race in which they ran together. After that, forget about it.

Example: Horse “A” runs against horse “B”. The ONLY horse in the race that is “early” is horse “A”. Every other horse in the race cannot even be REMOTELY considered and early horse. Horse “A” wires the field. Is there anyone that believes horse “B” cannot beat horse “A” in a future race over any period of time? Even if horse “A” is one of many competitive early types in a race where horse “B” is the lone closer?

Or, let’s take the opposite. Horse “A” is a stone closer. EVERY OTHER horse in the race is an early type and also very competitive early types. Horse “A” closes to beat the field. Is there anyone who believes NONE of these early types can ever beat horse “A”, even if one of them end up as the LONE EARLY in the very next race with horse “A”?

This is common sense, basic handicapping 101.

Next, let me assure you that I am not what you would call “a matcher”. However, I understand it. I understand it to this extent. Every race (line) you pick to evaluate a horse in a computer program and/or every race (line) you use in your “match up”, brings with it the “match ups” from THAT RACE. If you believe you are a “matcher” then you know that is true. You know that it was the “match ups” in that race that directly affected the outcome of that race, that is the VERY REASON you are trying to find the various times and styles that will allow you to understand which horse(s) will most likely win today’s race based on that information. Once you have made your determination for today’s race, win or lose, what good are today’s match ups the next time any of these horses run again? For any of the information you gathered today to be valid after today, the next race would have to be EXACTLY the same and we all know that there will NEVER be another race like the one you are looking at today.

Justin, you say, “layoffs mean nothing”. The first thing I would have to know is, what period of time between two races do you consider a layoff. Until then, let me offer some facts.
1 – 76% of all winners have run within the last 30 days
2 – 88% of all winners have run within the last 45 days
3 – 92% of all winners have run within the last 60 days
4 – 94% of all winners have run within the last 90 days

Let’s look at it another way. If you are considering betting a horse that has been off

1 – more than 90 days, you have a 6% chance of winning
2 – more than 60 days, you have a 8% chance of winning
3 – more than 45 days, you have a 12% chance of winning
4 – more than 30 days, a 24% chance of winning

It seems “time off” severely impacts the chances of a horse winning once you go beyond 30 days since its’ last race.
This information is based on more than 500,000 races.
Without doing more research, my guess would be, that many of these horses that make up the group of horses that won after having been off more than 90 days, would be those horses at the top of the class ladder that ARE capable of being off for long periods of time and come back to the races in peak form. These horses make up a very small percentage when compared to all the horses in training throughout the year.

For the Lead,

I think the question was refferring to how I use the matchup. When I get down within 4 or 5 horses, I will then look for tandems. I never look at layoffs. I understand most horses win (90% according to you, but my database shows 87%), but a horse has to be good enough BEFORE the layoff to win in the 1st start back. Some horses in your query doesn't stand a shot based on the pace the horse has faced previously before the break, and therefore wouldn't be a contender anyways.

As far as Tandems, as Jim I am sure, would have agreed, that although a horse lost to another, its HOW and WHY he lost to that horse that counts. If the horses were close, and its been awhile, the loser of the 1st race def. can beat the other horse. Now if Horse A beat horse B in the Tandem race, and in that race Horse B was no better than 7th the entire race, I dont care whether the race was yesterday or a year ago, Horse B will most unlikely beat Horse A.

Again, I believe the question was HOW I USE THE MATCHUP. I may have been mistaken, and if so I apologize.

FTL...those are awesome numbers from a vast data base and a good tip to look for lines within 90 days ..nice

But Justin is comfortable using his last 4 no matter what..this is what works for him

With tandems bro...let me tell you...I dont keep data or models or track profiles ...but let me tell you...when I look at a race after the fact( i know its wrong) I see that the horse lost to another once in the PP's..ok that said..

next time I cap, I look and see if a horse lost to tandem horse before...ok..he did...but theres no way this will happen again...guess what ...it does..no matter what I thought , somehow he loses to him again..this is just my opinion and what I remember..

p.s- 500,000 races :eek: you just gave away your age...lol


mike

Lol how old would you say Mike....60?

As far as the recencly of last race goes, again horse has to be better before the layoff to win todays race, otherwise horse is a kickout anyways. I dont want to offend you FTL, but I posted 3 races in last 3 days and winner in top 2 in all of them. The match-up is what I use, not handicapping 101. lol. I use what Jim teached, using different fractions. I dont even lable horses E/P/S at all. If a horse can compete and keep close at a 1:09 time for 6 furlongs, and nobody in the race can compete at a 1:10, I dont care whether there is a Lone E, Lone S or what, the horse that can go 1:09 and finish strong can beat a horse closing or setting the pace in 1:10 anyday!

Mike, will you be doing some live races today?

Justin...I have a foot of snow in front of my house..I am dreading going out there cause I dont know when or if I'll return...:confused:

good to see your an early bird too

mike

shhhh...i think hes older..lol

and speaking of tandems...look at my Hollywood 5th..


I picked the 6 thinking I'll get a speed dual up front and he'll close on them

guess what...It didnt happen and the 1a that beat my 6 prior...did it again..

mike

there is only one MU, "The HAT" MU.
All the others references not using 100% "The HAT" guidelines are not MU, just proficient methods which might incorporate some of The HAT ideas, that's all.

Pino..true..but the bottom line is....PROFIT!!

like u said

and my opinion from what I've seen and read and tried...no one can do what that man has done..so 100 % ...forget about it

I would have to agree gl, that there is only 1 Jim Bradshaw. But that said, NOBODY can do what he did. NOBODY. He has vision like nobody else, and everybody on here will agree, nobody can pick winners like Jim.

With that said, I derived off his ideas, instead of matching up how the horses will setup the race, my idea makes it so that you can see IF the pace is SO and SO fast, only these horse can be close...

I am in no way saying it is the "matchup". Everybody on here has tried "the matchup" with moderate success, mostly due to the fact Jim was an expert at what he did, and I really dont think many can re-create his actions. Its the same idea, just different approach.

Mike, and the rest that are following along, I will be posing selections today from time to time, using my version. Feel free to stop by and chime in. Wish you all luck today.

Justin and FTL even though you disagree very good posts by both of you

Its not disagreeing Jeff...its ones opinion

One last FAQ?? or not
 

Justin:

I forgot these last questions in my first question post awhile back.

First question has to do with the use of lines from recent maiden win horses. The Hat did not appear to want to use maiden lines.

I understand the need to use the maiden win line when its from last out. And I know we basically learn how the horse wins (E, P, S type) from that race. But in reviewing lines after maiden wins for "Oh so long" (back off Mike) few really advance off those lines, most regress.

So the situation is, with respect to your earlier guidelines, what line do you use when the best of last four (and the other guidlines) puts you on the maiden win?

Part Two: The maiden won and then improved (by any standard) but the improvement race is not at today's distance. Use the improved line or not? Why or why not? I know it sounds like common sense, but I want to hear it from the actual user instead of doing my own variation.

Much thanks you have crystallized the process for me greatly by your posts on this subject,


Bill

Bill,

I have been working on this approach for sometime, and just recently found a passage-way that works MUCH of the time. I will continue to refine the line choice, to try to better the model. At the present time, its very simple. I choose the most recent race at todays distance as the line, as long as it was in the last 4 races. If the horse hasn't raced at todays distance, I use the line in which the horse posted the top beyer.

I am kind of confused why Jim didnt like to use Maiden win lines. He said he NEVER looks at class, so it shouldn't be an issue what class the horse posted the race at. I mean its obvious claimers will probably run faster fractions that Maidens, so based on the 1st off Maiden win, the horse will probably be eliminated anyways.

I will continue to post the full approach, so some can study it a bit more. I do not use E/S/P until down to final 2 or 3, in which I will see whether the race will be run Early or OTE, and then make the selection. The method has posted a FLAT BET win profit betting TOP CHOICE only to win EVERYDAY for the past 2 1/2 weeks. Just imagine what a little refining can do. Thats kind of WHY I decided to show my cards. It seems you all here are experts on pace handicapping, so I'd figure you all could help refine the method some.

Thanks for your interest Bill!

Justin

Justin, First Post, This is the best site where people try to help each other. (Bar None) I really enjoyed Richie P. Tutorials and now you and Mike challenging . I think this is great. Keep up the good work. Thanks Bryan

Thanks Justin:

With my overall record being considered a pace expert seems a long ways off. I am striving to get my selections more centered and consistent, so all help is appreciated. My questions are coming from my interpretation of what I understood from Jim's writings, so the more you post the quicker it will sink in. Keep it coming as you have the ability to post.

In talking with one other member of this forum some time back he advocated (paraphrasing here) using the best of any races run in the last 30 days and using the last line when there was only one race in the past 30 days, but not if that one line represented the horse's worst past performance. Other than that little bit of latitude his method of line selection is much like yours.

Continued success,

Bill L

First ...Welcome to P & C Bryan

Second...theres lots to read and learn...patients is needed

Third... We dont have a clue what were doing...:confused:

good luck

mike

Bill,

I will post when I can. There wasn't much going on today race wise, so only actually bet like 3 races, during my breaks at work. Here is a race that ran today. I will post a race in the morning for tomorrow also.


12/21

Calder

Race 2

1- No races at todays distance in last 4. Will use best beyer.
2- The line is 3 back, at todays distance.
3- No races at todays distance in last 4, will use best beyer.
4- No races at todays distance in last 4, will use best beyer.
5- Last out was at todays distance.
6- The line is 2 back, at todays distance.
7- No races at todays distance in last 4, will use best beyer.


1---47.01----106.73---Even, but this race is at 5.5 Furlongs.
2---46.80----113.45---Lost 10
3---46.25----113.79---Lost 3, Set the Pace
4---47.79----112.49---Lost 3
5---46.93----114.43---Gained 1
6---46.73----113.19---Even, Set the Pace
7---46.99----114.09---Gained 4, Press The Pace


Eliminations will be 3 due to the loss of lengths at the 3rd slowest pace. Next elimination is the 5, who gained only 1 length against the slowest pace. Next elimination will be the 2, who lost 10 lengths against a mediocre pace.

Leaves top 4 of 1-4-6-7.

Many would ask why keep the 1. Well the average seconds for 1 furlong is around 6 to 6.5 seconds. That would make the 6 Furlong time on the 1 of around 112.73 or so.

With the remaining horses left, I would say to kick out the 4. The 1st 4 furlongs was the slowest in the field, and horse lost 3 lengths. Is actually the only Top 4 horse to lose lengths.

Top 3 would be 1-6-7.

The 1 is a horse that NEEDS the lead. May not get the lead the horse needs to win, but will be up front early. The 6 needs an even bigger lead to hang on. Last out can be excused due to the turf, but will def be near the lead early. The 7 is a Press/Stalker. The horse has a kick late. With all the early speed in here, this one could be the one to catch.

SELECTION 7 With 1-6



The race finished 6-7-1.

Excellent Justin....

p.s- does your boss know that u bet while on the job!!! nononono

lol

mike

HAT used ALL running lines to pick his horses and he did use Class