Wednesday -- August 5, 2009
 

Saratoga Changes
Wednesday August 5, 2009

The Main Track condition is now: Fast

The Turf Track condition is now: Firm

The weather at the Track is now: Mostly Sunny, 75

Race: 1
1 Lady Valiant Has been scratched (part of entry)
2 Sage the Rage Has been scratched

Race: 2
There are no changes at this time

Saratoga
 

Dd 8-6-4/1-9-8

SAR 1st:

Results at Saratoga
Wednesday August 5, 2009

Race: 1 Win Place Show
1st 7 Disco Diva 53.00 17.60 8.80
2nd 8 Driven by Seattle 4.00 3.50
3rd 5 Saarlandisourland 7.30
4th 3 Touchof Perfection
$2 Exacta 7-8 210.50
$2 Trifecta 7-8-5 2483.00
Refunds: 2

Race
 

3 Saratoga 2-5-6

AP, R1, #4, Rime Ice

looking to get at least 6:1 for a win bet

Arlington Park - Race 1
# Win Place Show
2 $4.00 $2.80 $2.20
5 . $4.00 $2.60
4 . . $2.60



3rd at 5:1

R4 Saratoga 4-8-5

SAR R4

#10, Luckylead

@ >= 7:1

Saratoga - Race 4
# Win Place Show
5 $5.40 $3.20 $2.60
8 . $4.10 $3.60
4 . . $7.90


$1.00 Exacta 5-8 $14.80
$1.00 Quinella 5-8 $9.80
$1.00 Trifecta 5-8-4 $137.25

Good hit.

Thanks tfm. R5 Saratoga 4-5-6

Sar 5th


Number 2 over 4, 6


GLA
Patrick

Sar 6

Here's an opportunity for a double single in the pick 4 bet


the number 10 horse in the 1st leg and the last leg too

so 10 / all / 1,2 / 10 2.00 for 12.00 maybe punch it a few times


Just a thought

Patrick

The 10 certainly can win it but it's a risky single. The 7, Marscaponi, ran his best race to date last out and could easily win the race.

Race 6 Saratoga 10-5-2

Sar r6

double 7/1

True it is just one of those things that you see the card from a far and your
1st gut instinct, or mine was the late pick 4 has 2 single, maybe 3 , and being a truck driver who use the 10-4 and 10-codes all day, I see a 10 book-end pick 4.

race 6 Yes the 7 and 5 are tough here, but 10 is a great play

Race 7 wide open 5 and 6 stand out, but "all " is nice, then hope

Race 8 Cocoa Beach can be a single play easily

Race 9 10 is stand out here again, but 4 and 7 too


Just my initial gut feeling is all, nothing more, play your race and good luck


Patrick

Someone please shoot me.

I had Essex Ferry on my "horses to watch" list. I saw that the horse was running in today's second race at SAR, but I had something important to do and didn't want to bet the race blindly. I knew I was going to have to structure a bet in a way that was going to take more time than I had this morning to think about because the horse was not a high probability play. I just got home and saw that the horse paid $37. I can't freaking believe this. They are torturing me so far at Saratoga.

Donovan apparently liked that horse last out. I assume because it had had consistent gate problems. It was the 'other' in my 'wipe-out otherwise' angle. (Then again, the 25:1 winner of the 1st was the 'wipe-out' of the 'wipe-out otherwise' in its last race.)

I noted it before the race but got involved doing other things and forgot about it. Serling mentioned it and used it in P4's.

Should I start a list of all the BOMBS I screwed up recently and didn't play? Not about 'picking' them but about 'playing' them.

I'm listening to Blewitt and it just amazes me how challenged he is when it come to even the basics. He still doesn't understand that horses that show speed at a particular distance, then cut back, from 5.5F to 5F even, will show LESS speed. The 5 in the 7th probably is the speed by default but the 1 could easily go today, if she breaks well (assuming their intent is to send her).

The 1 is the DUNCE CAP horse for Searling. If she wins, he wears it.

I know what you mean, but I almost never miss these kinds of things. I usually make a point of at least getting something in on the horse. I'm not having a good meet so far. So it stings a little. The good news is that my new watch list is producing flat bet profits without any handicapping so far. So I guess I should just take it as an encouraging sign and move on.

tfm could u share with us what you mean by wipe out horses? R7 Saratoga 9-1-7

The 1 in the 7th is an example. It's a race where all the other horses are losing ground in relation to the winner. The trick is to figure out which of them was a good setup and which wasn't. I hit enough of them but many get by me because they're too impossible to believe. Like the 45:1 that won the $500k stake at Woodbine over the weekend, that had just wiped-out a maiden claiming field. How do you bet that horse?

Yes I was curious too, Wow the 9 Seminole Lass , how come??? Just curious again


Patrick

I don't think Blewitt is a super experienced handicapper. I think he's getting "on the job" training from Serling. But I try not to criticize anyone because we all have different insights. The trick is to capitalize on what you do know and perhaps steal a few things from others, not to find other individuals' flaws. We all sound like fools from time to time when we talk about things outside out circle of competence.

I'm sure I sound like a dope when I talk about Sartin methodology, but I am open to learning from the experts here. Others may sound like dopes to me when they talk about comparative class handicapping because I've been studying that for decades.

As long as we both win, it's cool. :)

TMF,

I don't know all the components of your "wipe out" horses, but I use a similar angle.

I have found that big winners that draw off through the stretch do better if you focus on the sub group of them that are lightly raced and that are not coming out of a race where they were the dominant speed against much weaker. Lots of times a dominant speed will torch the rest of the field with a pace that's fine for it, but too fast for the inferior competition, and then draw off. Those horses are often very good, but their form is clear and they get bet.

The ones that draw off under a more normal pace scenario are sometimes WAY better than their figures indicate because they only did some serious running in the last quarter mile, but if they are lightly raced, no one knows it yet. So the prices can be more attractive. The trick is to eliminate some of the ones that were just easy trip winners (like loose lead etc..).

That's fine but you and I aren't on a show playing the role of experts. Serling knows his **** when it comes to tripping but the other 2 are clueless. They shouldn't be allowed to talk about trips as neither is particular knowledgeable when it comes to them. There are people out there watching the show that are being influenced by their poor approach. They're both good at getting the Formulator stats and should stick to that.


P.S. there might be a speed/inside bias sprinting on the turf. Once it starts up there, it continues for weeks.

AP R6

#3, is very square at 11:1 and I can't resist playing

he comes from way back and there appears to be some speed in the race

take an ebox saver with the Calabrese chalk dropdown, the 4.

Do you really feel the other 2 influence that many, now we all know how good Andy is, but the other 2 could never get me to change my mind, and how long was that 10 horse in race 7 scratched, what a foool I feel like, putting up a Pick 4 to a scratched horse as a single, too busy...


we could go 2 / all / 10 that might work, not that I am wagering today, as I will now win bet as I promised on here I would do, but I can still post my picks here anyway

Patrick

The other two mimic Andy and someone new to the game would probably buy into it. I guarantee you that over 95% of those trip handicapping are focusing on trouble.

In the meantime, I've gone completely COLD. I have so much outside work that I just can't focus on betting.

I have two horses on my watch list in the 9th at SAR

1. Mesa Sunrise is coming out of fast fast race

2. Fatah Field made a nice wide move after being off a step slow

Now I just have to figure out what to do with them, if anything. :)

exbox

His last race on dirt?

Yea, that's one of the major question marks, especially because there's other speed in the race. Generally I would pass on one like that, but I'll probably use him with the 10 because prior turf form OK.

That was also a wipe-out otherwise win for him. I don't think he has much heart but what scares me is that I believe, from what happened in the 7th, there's a speed/inside bias. I'm not playing this race. Looks like the 10 won't be much value either.

Odd are changing in a way that is not helpful to me. I'm taking the 10 a very little and using with the 4. Cut way back.

the truckers special 10-4

you guys have no sense of humor, i've been told that for years , and they were right, now I'm trying to

patrick

Good catch on the potential bias. Worth watching going forward. That was quite a wicked pace by the #5, but he held on. More evidence of it. He looked like the fastest horse early going in, but I'm always reluctant to use first time turfers unless I know something. The exacta was very good. Oh well, time to do some work now.

When the winner wired the field in the 7th, and they went 1 to 4 around the track, I knew something was up. She's not that game and I thought running on the lead was not her strong suit. You should watch the headon replay of the 1 in the 7th. Widest chasing, under the whip on the turn, behind horses in the stretch, carried out a bit very late, and was GAINING on them. This is a sure betback on a fair track.

SA R3 #8, Mendota Bay, win @ >= 6:1

one of my 'fighters'