H.A.N.A. Mnr 2nd race
 

This is the "Pool Party" race that H.A.N.A. has designated to play this week.

It is tonight's 2nd race at Mountaineer.

Here are the entries along with APV and CR

All comments, feedback etc are welcome

Here are the pps and lines chosen using program default settings and best of last 3 races chosen by perceptor rankings shown on lower tab.

...

Here are the Tpr and Bl/Bl screens with all horses/lines

Hiding one at a time to top 5 this is what I see.

1) Pace of horse velocity screen
2) Pace of race velocity screen
3) Tpr and E/L graph screen
4) Segments screen showing Cbl and F3+Tp
5) Bl/Bl screen

Very best of luck/skill if you jump in

Hi Richie...

My take...I see the 1-2-7 fighting for lead ...OTE Race..48.3...114.4

#3...mars horse..out
#4...3rd race back matches pace..came in 2nd..in
#5...slow horse..out
#6...sprinter...close to projected times.....didnt lose ground..in
#8...no form...needs real slow pace...out
#9...last race 2nd vs projected pace ...won from 2nd and 6th position..in

left with 4-6-9
#4... did a 58 after doing a 72 s/r...tailing off?
#6...stranger in race
#9..improving s/r last 3 ..will not shoot to lead from outside should be sitting 4th..

betting 6 & 9*

mike

While I think that HANA is a very good thing, it might be a good idea for them to focus on what's really important to the horseplayer: DATA, and it's availability and accuracy.

While I'd like to play MNR regularly, I DON't play there at all, because they just can't seem to time their races consistently. So, there are always N/A's where numbers should be in the charts. Which means that it takes me an extra minute or so to do charts for a card. Which means that I really can't be bothered as there are smoother run operations. Which means that maybe HANA should focus on doing the race of the week thing at THESE tracks and not those tracks that basically couldn't care less about the bettor -- since they could care less about their data.

Accurate (and accessible) data TRUMPS just about everything else in terms of importance when it come to handicapping.

My Fair Odds for MNR 2nd:

I'll take an exacta box 4,6,9.

Classic Mountaineer result:

yeah...my 6 had the overland route most of the race and the 5 enjoyed a rail trip...:mad:

H.A.N.A. race 2 at MNR
 

I did not play this race or even look at prior to the race. I do not use RDSS or any commercial software. I use my own program. Here are the horses and lines I used. These lines are computer generated. I did not pick them manually, therefore, these are the lines that would have been used before the race as well.

1 - L1
2- L1
3- no line
4- L1
5- L3
6- no line
7- L1
8- L1
9- L1

Many of you may disagree with the line selection, but that is a topic for another discussion.

Keep in mind that my computer program makes all adjustments for dist, track, variant, etc. automatically.

On this basis my #1 TPR horse was #5. #5 was also my #1 FFR horse.

Perhaps one or more of you using RDSS or other commercial software would like to re-work this race using the same lines I used just to see the difference.

Kgen
 

Hello sir

Since I'm using your lines let me show you what my old friend KGEN
saw

Note: The instructions for KGEN say to enter any Beaten Lengths over 9
as 9 .. For this example I just exported the lines you used raw
many were over 9, but I left them as is

First screen is your lines on the Energy Gen
Attachment 17147

Next the Program is calling for the 2 adjustment
so I will use it
Attachment 17141

Next are the adjusted Kgraphs SP and EXDC
Attachment 17144
Attachment 17142
Next is the first Stop action Pre Play the SP comes up first
Attachment 17143
both the PrePlay and the SP Kgraph agree 5 is the horse ranked first

Thanks
Bill

Thanks Bill. Very Interesting. Sometimes the lines one uses GETS THE WINNER and sometimes THEY DON'T!
Just one note about your post. I think a check of the lines will show that, only 1 horse had beaten lengths greater than 9, the 7 horse (13). All the rest were under 9 lengths, including two winners (#5 & #2) one 2nd"hd"(#9) and one 2nd(1/2)(#4).

One additional note for those who might be wondering, my computer did not pick a line for the 6 horse as it has no recent route races or the 3 horse because its' two recent races were sprints and it doesn't go back 7 or 8 months to get a route line.

And I guess one other note is in order regarding the #5 horse. In all of the lines used, all the horses showed either a win or close finish or early speed (sign of life). In the case of the #5, its' last race was sort of even, the 2nd back was horrible (coming off a win at NW2L going to NW3L), so the most recent race where the horse showed signs of life (a win) was the 3rd back just 52 days ago.

I think this exercise shows that with "certain" lines even a horse that appears ungetable IS getable. It is all in the line selection and horses chosen to be "in" or "out".

Anyway, thanks again Bill, for running that race through KGEN.

WOW...what a difference between kgen and rdss...using the same line (3) rdss has the 5 at the bottom..via match-up the fractions are too slow last 3 races and was also a toss :confused:

mike

what lines did you use for the other horses in the race?

did you leave the 3 and 6 out?

Another interesting note: on the Energy Generator, of the 7 horses, 5 are 'early' and 1 is 'ep'. The remaining horse (#5) is a 's/p'. ;)

Kgraohs
 

Hello FTL

Yes your correct, The 7 really is the only horse with over 9 beaten lengths

Thats one of the reasons I like my friend KGEN. Numbers sometimes are
misread. The pictures of the graphs help me with this.

One thing I did notice As you said, Look at the ESP running styles
all Early or EP except the = 5 S/P

The Kgraphs are showing a very close race, I rarely see all the horses
with such similar running lines. The 2 and 7 as showing any real difference.
Fast early and a quick drop.

The engen also shows the 2 7 and 9 with high Med energy numbers

The first screen to come up on the PrePlay was the SP screen

The program called the race Other Than Early
The lone OTE got the lead and the others could not run it down

FTL..via matching up....the 3 I didnt even consider...why...I got burnt with so many horses like this in the past...look at where he runs from...last..so out he goes since there wasnt going to be a sizzling pace

with the 6....projecting a 6 furlong # for his last 3 sprints gives me somewhere around a 114.2 or 114.3..which is just on with this bunch and also he doesnt lose ground which is a general rule with sprinters stretching out

mike

Mike, it seemed to me from your post that you ran this race through RDSS and used line 3 for the FIVE horse. What I was wondering was, did you use the same horses as I did and ALL the same lines as I did?

Thanks.

Bill, the #2 adjustment was only for legitimate contenders, not the entire field. Look at that energy spread. I'm fairly certain using the #2 adjustment would be wrong in this case. Don't you agree?

2 adjust
 

Hi David

Yes I do. I will not enter a horse into Kgen unless I feel the horse is a contender. I pick my lines based on guidelines from the follow up
and manuals pertenant to the time of these programs.
Therefore when I am notified of the possiblity of the need for the 2 adjust
I always will use it. In my last 7 races using KGEN I have been asked
if I wanted to use the 2 adjust in 6 of those races I have used it and the winner was on the correct kgrah
(based on the first preplay screen) 5 times. I feel my contender and pace line skills are fine so I will use the 2 adjust when I have to

Now in this case I strickly was following FTL's request to enter his lines into
a software.

I was asked If I wanted to use the 2 adjust and I agreed
This is all base on FTL's lines

Bill

My look
 

Hi

here are my lines I did this race Friday night
I missed the race by 1/2 hour so I was very mad

Using the last line for my contenders
here is the Engen
Attachment 17150

Here is the 2 adjust warning

Attachment 17151

Here are the Kgraphs adjusted


Attachment 17152
Attachment 17153
Here is the first Preplay screen The EXDC comes up first
The 5 in the top 2
Attachment 17154

i didnt use rdss...match-up is eye balling it :cool:

Thanks Mike, I understand matching. I guess I misread your post.

Thanks Bill. To me, this remains interesting. The difference is that you used the last line for the #5 horse and did not include the #1 and #7 horses. As a result, you get the EXDC screen first rather than the SP screen.

It seems to me, that although the total energy for the #1 and #7 horses is low, they are the pacemakers in this race as shown in the SP screen you first did for me. Also on that screen, the MP for the #2 horse shows it next to last. In fact, in the last race the #1 and #7 ran together and alternated the lead through the first two calls. By eliminating the #1 and #7, the #2 shows a clear lead (by default) on the EXDC and also as the winner, but my thought would be that this cannot be true with the #1 and #7 horses in the race.

Although you may throw out the #1 and #7 from the 'win' for having low total energy, they clearly effect the pace of the race AND the outcome as you have shown.