Friday Racing July 9
 

Hi Guys...

I'm going with Monmouth Park today and going to cap it with P & C' s favorite Mom ( probably the only one ..lol) Barb Craven approach using the 2 horse betting...I'll make some mistakes , but please dont hit me with the ruler...ouch!!

mike

Race 1
 

took off the bottom 2 horses(4,7) to get to 5

betting teir1...5/2 odds

betting tier 4 ...overlay at 11-1 with a few corollaries ( whatever that means)

#6 & #2 to win

mike

4/5 fav #1 won

#6 2nd
#2 4th


Woodbine 1st...#5 to win

Mon Race 2
 

heres the 2nd race...there were 3 scratches out of 8 horses this race :eek:

I am going with my match-up gut and say..

the2 will try to get the lead but the 6 will pressure him and go by..I think the favs big number was because of a easy trip vs a fast pace..in his PP's he needs a slow pace , like 47 , to win..i think hes too far behind here..

OK get the ruler out...

# 2 won at 4-1

#4 2nd at 5/2

i was right about the 5

blew $10.00 winner

mistake #1

HIT ME NOW!!!

race 3

with 5 mins to post

betting teir 2 & 3

gl

mike

6-5-1.......:(

race 4
 

betting the 9 & 12

mike

long shot 10?

8-9-1...:(

race 5..betting overlays 3 & 1

gotta go out a few


mike

nice....# 3 won at $18.80

and the #1 was listed a non starter and got a refund...:rolleyes:

race 7

3 & 6 to win

teir 2 favorite won

review of race 6

teir 4 favorite won at 9/5

race 8

betting the 2 & 5 after hiding the 6

6-3-7

race 9

hiding the favorite...we bet #4 and tier 3 #6

5-7-6

summery

bet 9 races

2 horses each= $36

2 wins $10.00 & $18.80

1 refund $2

bet 36 returned $31 ( rounded)
-14%

2 teir 1 favorites won
1 tier 2 favorite won

Should I get the ruler out now Mike? You have to admit the two you won paid more than$4-$6. LOL!

Barb

Not a total bust...but you can still whack me if you want ;)

mike

Mike
 

Hike Mike

I watched you in action today . You did well. It might not appear that great
looking at it as you did here. As a day at the races .. "How did you do today???"

Its much more telling if you look at a set of races. At least 20 race cycles..


some points...
You had 2 nice winners. $18.80 and $10.00.
Looking at a day at the races these look like "Thank God " wins.
They saved your day from a bust. In 9 races you had 2 nice winners.
In 20 races lets say you were on a pace for 4 or 5.
In a 20 race cycle 5 nice winners is something much more positive to look back on.
This is a big step in learning to believe. To sit back and look at
a big picture of what your working for. Those 4 or 5 winners will
feed your confidence. You will get stronger and more sure
that you will catch those big profit fish.

You will be more in focus as to what makes winners.
Looking at a day of races will get you to "At least I didn't lose" thinking.

You bet all 9 races You didn't pass any race. That is something I rearly see in the follow up.
In 3 of the 9 races a tier 1 -2 favorite won.
With practice most Sartin Methodology users might "feel"
that the favorite in one of these races is too strong to beat.
I think you were more working to see how the methodology guidelines would hold up after a full card. But knowing when to pass is a pat of the methodology too.
Also I know your a win place wagerer. In races were you have a strong favorite sometimes you can still get nice place prices on longshots.
Look at race 9 today. You went against a 3/5 favorite ranked # 1
Not that you - nor I for that matter had the 7 horse. However, in a race with a bet against 3/5 favorite, The place horse paid $37.00

The name of the game today is profit from 20 race cycles
not win percentage

I suggest to Sartin Methodology students That you follow what Mike and Barb are doing.
Look at your results in 20 race cycles.
Your goal sould be to get better in each one.
The simple act of jotting down some of your feelings after each race,
will only help you in the next cycle.

GS
Bill

thxs Bill...u summed it up perfectly...this was my first trail run at 2 horse betting and I was just looking at what Barb's guidelines would give me.
yes i was automatically throwing out the favorites and looking at prices, but with a little more practice maybe i can hit an exacta with a strong fav..


well, i look at this way...in the past , if I would have bet all the races like this I'd be in front of the train station with a paper cup looking for money to get back home..

mike