7/5 Arlington 2ND
 

can u see a horse with open lengths lead going around the track???


mike

Mike,
Looks like th #5 can go all the way if He doesn't get challenged. The #1 seems like the closer.
Ira

The 5???

i see the 3 :eek:

Mike,
After taking another look. The 3 looks pretty fast. If the 3 gets hooked up in a speed duel with the 5 we may get an OTE. If you look down the PPs for the 5 he did a 21.4 Albeit @ Hawthorne. Good Luck.
Ira

heres a carbon copy of the 2nd race i put up...

if you think the only speed horse #5 cant wire them, then I think the the OTE horse will be the #7


good luck with these races..

mike

Way to go
 

and away he goes
Great work Mike !!! 16.oo++++

3 -5 exacta too Ira

GS
Bill

Man is without question "En Fuego"

FPLR again Mike?

With "Hat's Longshot Pattern" to boot?

#:1:

3 races at AP

3 wire jobs

interesting to see whether there's a speed bias as they all figured (had pace advantages)

with times of 25.1 and 50+ change, that 3rd race was a steal. Excellent bet-against next time if he has to face some early speed. Although he should have plenty in the tank if he comes back anytime soon. Other two races were speed worthy. Doesn't AP play more towards the front-end anyway?

Nice analysis in the 2nd, Mike.

Hi Guys...

thxs

Just watched the races monday morn..

U dont know what its like to see this at the start of the day :)

the second race was easy...

not being greedy :p, if anyone watched the replay of the 5th..you would have thought the 7 was at Coney Island on the bumper cars...the 5 did a right turn into the 6, which bumped the 7 and the 8 did a left hand turn into the 7..so he got it on both sides and still finished 2nd :mad:

Don...Arlington is not usually speed favoring but the last few days a little speed didnt hurt...but its been a hell of a good track to match up...very honest


Match-up

Morning Mike
I did see the race Nice call on the 7 OTE
I had a show bet on the 8@ like 30/1

:(

Mike--
quick question. Do you find the synthetics kinder to the match-up over the dirt? Or is there no difference?

Donnie...

My answer would be yes.... I try to stay with sprints under 7 furs ( no maidens..if I do bet its just a small action bet)

what I would do is..

take any track...go to drf.com and look at the pdf results of the past few days(make sure track wasn't off) and try to analyze how the tracks playing

cap a day or 2 and just watch..

get a handle on whats going on and then give it a whirl :D

I'll tell you, I cant do well at all in my home tracks at NY...but maybe because there r easier ones elsewhere

gl

mike

Mike,
Great call on the 3. Iboxed my 5 with the 3 for a nice 110.00 exacta. Thanks for your insight it was very helpful for me with the matchup.
Ira

nice going Ira....:)

i wish I could have play some exactas with my picks here ...but I got burnt so many times in the past

one day ;)

mike

Guys ...

The match-up isnt that hard if you apply it to certain races...

there are plenty of sprints( 5, 5 1/2 , 6 , 6 1/2 ) claiming , allow, races out there..my weakness is routes

give it we will never be a genius like the Hat, but we can certainly find races and /or tracks that we can get comfortable with and win..

read The 5 Step Approach

label horses E-S-P
project 1c and 2c times from the early horses
determine if race is "early" or "ote"

then eliminate horses that cant win vs the projected times
no-form
"mars" horses that always come from far out of it

I'm sure that you will be left with possibly 2 or 3 horses in each race


mike

Way to go Mike! This one is a reminder of something posted here many times: You've got to look "left" (on the lead vs 22 and 45) while everyone else is looking "right" (finish position).

You did and nailed it! Great job.

Thxs Pete..

as long as "Joe Public" keeps using Beyers ...we'll have the edge :D

mike

Thanks for the response Mike!

Never did well at HOL until they went poly....now I like it.

Modeling the track is no problem. I use HTR and with the push of a button I can survey the last 10 winning lines for any dist/surf.

I am currently getting back to basics. Used to use pace pretty extensively, moved a bit away from it, but now re-incorporating it back into my style. Hence, you'll see me in and out of discussions and asking questions and reading and re-reading.

Appreciate your insights!

BOL!
-Donnie