Hollywood Friday Night
 

Race 7

Proj pace from #8 Best Mon
22.0 - 45.0

Here are the full pps with lines lit up by today's projected pace.

Middle tab will show tandems when they exist.

...

I'll start....


Dont like the #1...out

mike

thats it

Contenders :2:, :3:, :5:

#2

just wish he weren't adding distance. the worry is that he'll be with the pace (too close) early.

This kind of a race would usually be a pass...young horses with a few races...can u really define the 8 as an early horse after 2 races...
I think that race was impressive ..fighting from the half to stretch, then drawing off...can he sit behind the 5 and let others fight him..too many questions on how the race will be run

mike

The 3 and 9 really didnt make up much ground..but the 2 made up 7 lts from start to finish vs this pace..:eek:

profile
 

speed and inside has been good at this distance..

I agree with Mike on the 8. With a %med of 68 he probably does not need the lead today and may not choose to take it as others in the field with more early-like %meds might be more interested in having it.

The question mark for me is how to evaluate the improvement shown by the 5 when it jumped to 8 furlongs. TE improved almost 2.5 points! The horse's 1st start was early &fading with %med = 70; the maiden win looked more like a fighting presser, but the attempt to wire the mile field, even with the big improvement resulted in an early like %med of 69.2. this horse has been off 63 days, has had 5 bullet works and one 2nd best at 5F out of 27 and 2 works ago ran a workout 2/5ths faster than the mile race it lost!! That being the case the only question might be why drop back in distance to a sprint? To me, indications are that this horse is better now than its last race. If you use the last race this horse is 6 pts better early and 3 pts better combined.

I think the only other real contender is Mike's 8. Might have to hit the ALL button to hit the trifecta here.

Hi Bill....thxs for chiming in...always enjoy your incites...what i would like from you to do , if you can, is to elaborate the way to decipher a races unfolding by means of the e/l graph. Since this has been brought up, it has intrigue me and I have noticed that horses that has a edge in epr or lpr is doing better than what the top tpr rated horse is. You seem to go that direction also.

thxs mike

I put this race up because after the first quick pass through the pps I got a feeling that the earlies 5 and 8 are fastest horses in race.

Then second and third times through I started talking myself off them with O.T.E. guys like the 2 and 9. I can remember doing this many times with Hat and having one of my original bucks come through and win with Jim telling me "Rich the first time through you had the horse and let him get away from ya. You gotta stop doing that". This race feels like one of those races man.

So I have to go with 1st thought and have 5 and 8 as win contenders. I don't bet low odds horses anymore to win (less than 5/2) so the ml on the 5 of 7/5 does him in leaving the #8.

I like the thought that the 8 might also be able to go OTE if the 5 gets out front fast. that race 2 back holding position and lengths 1c-2c against fast pace is encouraging.

:8::5:

Anyway I put the race up so I would HAVE to stick to my guns and also cause it looked interesting :)

Best of luck everyone and thanks for jumping in

Mike:

Remember, this is only worth what you are paying for it. (Other readers, I'm winging it from memory here [except for the page reference below] so feel free to correct errors of fact)

When Sartin, Hambleton, Schmidt and Pizzolla wrote Pace Makes the Race (PMR) there was a chapter devoted to the development of Total Pace Ratings or TPR. Pretty much the rest of the book was devoted to analyzing races using the fully adjusted TPR ratings.

In RDSS, that analysis happens, with all the adjustments provided by the program (thank you Ted) on the TPR + E/L screen.

The PMR authors said on page 205 that winners come from the top three TPRs over 80% of the time. In practical use at the time and in Sartin's Follow Up journal we were directed to consider for win any horse within five points of the best TPR. I suspect the five point range probably coincided with another guideline which was to consider contenders within about two total energy points - but I don't know that for sure.

IMO, once you have assigned a visual running style to a horse you can compare like-style horses to one another, as long as they really are the same running style. In tonites race I agree that with so few races its hard to really know if the 8 for instance needs the lead or just found no one else there in his maiden win. His %med is low which hints strongly that he could press and I like the observation of fighting at the stretch call, which I think adds credibility to your observation.

So tonite, look at the TPR screen and with the lines chosen for each horse see how the running styles match the EPR positioning. The ESP is calculated by the program; the RS is the visual running style we identify based on review of all of the horses running lines. In a perfectly simple world in this ranking the top EPR horse would be early and the rest of the horses transitioning from EP to S. But it would be a really good sign if the top EPR horse was something other than E (the farther away the better - EP-P-SP-S) and all the other horses had running styles closer to the lead.

Note for this example, that except for line 1 for the 5 that the spread of total energy is only about .80 point, indicating a fairly well grouped field. If line 1 is representative of the 5's ability, then perhaps only the 5 and 8 are contenders and if you took those within 5 pts of the best, the 2 and 1 could be eliminated from win consideration.

Also, knowing a little about the E/L tendencies of Socal poly tracks any horse in a 6.5 furlong race with a negative number really has a lot to overcome, so I would focus on two lines from the 5, the 6 and the 8.

If the 5's line 1 is real, then a true E horse would have to try to keep up. So the 8 would have to run 7 ticks faster early to eye ball him; the 6 would have to do the same and since the 6 has slightly less late fuel 91.4 vs 92 you wouldn't expect those two to change places. a little reinforcement for that opinion would also come from the fact that the 8 has slightly more total energy, but I might be splitting hairs. Unless the 8 and 6 have massive amounts of improvement in them they would burn up trying to match the 5.

If the five reverts to how it ran in line 2 he is not out of it though. If the 8 duplicates its 92.5 and the 5 fights or presses it has one unit of energy more to give so it can either match, push or sit slightly off the 8. You would mentally convert the excess early units into two late units and the resulting CPR would be 184.5 making it equal to the 8. If the 8 didnt collapse from the pressure from the 6 and 5 you'd have a pretty tough 3 way call.

One caution to note here is that these are just two static numbers. they dont interact with one another, they just measure what happened to each horse for the first part and the second part of the race.

You can get a little more insight by combining the review of the TPR info with the three panels of information on the velocity screen in RDSS. On that screen you can visualize a little better each horses position at first fraction, 2nd fraction, second call and finish fraction time to see if the visual positioning is maintained all the way through the race as predicted by the EPR and LPR info.

The more you get into what the program puts out, the more you can appreciate what Howard and his band of merry men have already thought through, pretty thoroughly in my opinion.

Big subject here, so ask more if its not so clear.

Bill

Thanks for posting that Richie. The question I have about this race is what is the #5 going to do. He was unratable in his last race, out of control, he was pulling Gomez like crazy. He worked 8 days ago 5F in 58.4, 2 / 27. In the last month Baffert has given him 6F , 7F & a 8F works, maybe to give him some stamina , take his speed edge away. Check that work tab ! Horse has many bullet works since his last race. I say he goes very fast tonight. I also landed on the same 2 contenders. If the #8 can rate off the #5, he may have a good shot to get him in the stretch, hopefully at a nice price :)

#5 Zensational Work Tab
 

That is some work tab.

# 8 opens at 28-1 :D

Thought the #8 had a chance at the top of the stretch, but not tonight the #5 was too good. Great race !!

Result
 

Wild fast fractions and neither the 5 nor the 8 have the lead during the early stages of the race!

I put 2 conditional bets in and went to sleep:
1 for the win on #5 if 5/2 or higher - that didnt go through
1 for win on #8 if 5/1 or higher - did go through - loss

8 can not run OTE against fast horses. This 3rd race lifetime of his showed that I think. He was looking around when sitting third like "whats going on here"

5 can run OTE against fast horses and is very dangerous going forward I think
Appreciate everyone's feedback!!

PS - Hey "Zaf" great to hear for ya man! :)

Right back at ya Ritchie ! See you in Saratoga in August :)