Match Up Query
 

Does the #1 move up positions and come out on top in the head to head with the #8 against a Pace of say 22. 6 - 45.8

Thanks in advance

Look
 

Hi Charlie

using the tools I have ....!:)

I would say that the 1 would move up

Bill

Thanks Bill

Could you post the positions you think each horse will be in please

No
 

No Charlie
I can't
The reason why I think the 1 would match up and move up more than the
8 is because looking at the stretch position the 1 horse is right there
in both races The 8 seems want to be 3rd or 4th except for the mud line

I would say that is a tough question without looking at the entire race and ALL the horses total pace performance.

There are questions that need to be asked.

1) Is the 8 "normally" a presser?

2) Is the 8 "normally" a presser that challenges for the lead?

2a) WHERE does he like to challenge for the lead if that is his character and usually at what position?

3) If so, what fractions does he like to challenge?

4) Are there "other" pressers positioning themselves as 2nd or pressing for the lead? How does he handle this situation?

5) Or does he like being "alone" pressing or chasing the leader?

6) How does he handle the lead or being in the lead?

7) What does he do when he overtakes the lead?

8) Is he "alone" when he does this or are there "other" horses right with him and HOW does he handle that, based on his past performance?

9) Is his "BREAK" position a factor or not, according to this horses PP's? How many horses does he have to pass to get his "preferred" 1st Call position and at what Fraction?

10) Is the race going to run "Early" or "Other-Than-Early"?

Questions I ask myself all the time, to get some pattern of "THIS" horse, "TODAY" in "TODAY'S race, because one has to ask himself, "the way the horse runs "TODAY", and how he "feels" TODAY(condition) and the types of competitors/characters/personalities he is facing TODAY may make what he did YESTERDAY useless and obsolete, TODAY.

Just some thoughts.

VoodooFan

Here you go Voodoofan

#1's PP first, #8's PP second

Now here is a guy who has been doing his homework AND thinking about it, not just trying to get it done!

Every pace line you look at carries the characteristics of the “match ups” that were a part of that race. Without knowing what those characteristics were, it is difficult to assume the horse will react the same way in today’s race.

"IF" these were the ONLY 2 horses on the track, a two horse race......

The 8 will get the lead.

He fought off a challenger in a 46 to win the 6 furlong portion before losing at 6 1/2 on March 16.

He fought for the lead from the 1st call to the end of the 6 furlong portion, winning that portion, before losing at 7 furlongs on March 28.

At a fast 21.4-45.1 he was 3rd only 2 to 2 1/2 lengths off the leader, demonstrating current condition and willingness to STILL expend energy early.


Now the 1 is mostly a sustained presser, like MatchUp 2 says, a presser that presses pressers, also with some sustained ability.

But TODAY, he will be a presser, based on this being a two horse matchup race ONLY with no other positional or character influences from other horses.

2 of the 3 times, when this horse gets in a 2nd position, he WILL go after the leader in the next call and try to take the lead.

For some horses, this works only if they get that position in the 1st call, others at other calls , and some, either combination of the two scenarios.

His last three races show decline and their is no additional supported evidence in his past performance that he can duplicate his January 11 performance at those fractional speeds.

Even at 1's BEST line, he is STILL 2nd 1 1/2 lengths off the leader, NOT PRESSING THE LEADER AT THE 1ST CALL OR GOING AFTER THE LEADER IN THE 1ST CALL MAKING THE LEADER EXPEND EXTRA ENERGY.

He will do so again, being 2nd.

That means the 8 can run SLOWER than the 22.3 and have enough to fight off the 1's 2nd call challenge for the lead.

NOWHERE does the 1 show he will fight, press or go for the lead at the lst call. Very important.

The 1's last three 1st calls : 10th-6 lengths off at a 22.1, 5th-2.5 lengths off at a 22.2, and 4th-1.5 lengths off at a 22.3, content to sit behind, even at
2nd position , not pushing the leader at that all important 1st call, the portion of the race where the most energy is spent, where later deceleration is affected and more importantly, the portion of the race where conservation of energy is most critical.

Also, the 59.2-112.2 portion of the 1's performance, getting that lead is a decline compared to his other two performances when he was 2nd, then getting the lead at the next call or closing in on the leader(s).

Compare THAT to the 8's March 16 and March 28 fractional performance.

That March 28 fractions and fighting on the 8 would give me more confidence in his ability, although I would downgrade that performance a tad because he got a boost coming out of a chute.

THE HAT said that 6 1/2 and 7 furlongs run faster than 6 at the 1st two calls, I think he said he added and extra fifth of a second to the 1st two calls because they are getting a boost coming out of a chute.

The 1 is going to break 1st, at the break call, but the 8 will pass him, since he is the only horse that he has to pass, and get the lead at a much slower time, giving him extra energy to fight off the 1 at the 2nd call and sustain his energy , at least, till the end of the 6 furlong portion of the race.

The 8 shows two races where when fighting, a willingness to sustain his lead at least to the 6 furlong portion.

Win , lose or draw, my bet would be a one horse bet on the 8, to go
wire-to-wire.

VoodooFan

Lets put this to bed




I had the #1 -#6 and #8 as the contenders

#6 On lead with #8 as maybe pressing or just sat in behind and the #1 behind these two.

I bet #6 and #8

The way the #8 ran does not help analysis , but I was interested to see if other Matchers saw the #1 moving up and being ahead of #6.




Contenders

Chart

In hindsight, looks like the question was, who would challenge Froggy for the lead or does he have enough to fight off a challenger or can he go wire-to-wire?

Richie posted that THE HAT said Early means wire-to-wire without a challenge.

I guess that also means that if the Early horse's fighting ability and fractions is more than an edge against the nearest would-be challenger for the lead, THAT is not considered a challenge.

VoodooFan

I actually thought there was a very good chance of the #6 wiring Voodoo, but thought i'd play safe betting the #8 too.

#1 surprised me in being up so close, but in hindsight, i suppose if there is no #8 to run ahead of him, maybe it's logical for the #1 to be in it's spot.

Last races are killer on both, neither seemed indicative.

Threw out the 8 last race because TODAYS pace would be much slower, based on his 2nd and 3rd back, would make HIM 2nd, and in addition, the horse always seem to fold when he is not 1st or 2nd at the 1st call.

Would compare the 1 last race to the other two, and if no trouble line comment, would say he was declining.

But am not sure if I would throw him (the 1 horse) out if I felt the race was going to run Other-Than-Early, would have to compare him to the other OTE horses in the race.

Not that I would have won it, but this shows why THE HAT does not do "what if" scenarios.

Like he said on tape, someone called him and said, "ok jimmy, I got horse A who runs a 22 - 45- 110 all the way, and I got a 2nd horse who runs a
21.4-44.4 110, who wins the race?"

THE HAT said he told him, " you made up the race, YOU pick it."

Like he said on the Vegas 91 tape that this race will run ONE TIME only and will NEVER be run again. You'll never see it again.

I think I recall where he said he looks at non-contenders to "see" if anyone can "hurt" "HIS" horse.

He looks at the ENTIRE race and the ENTIRE performance of ALL the LINES of ALL the horses that are going to race in that race today.

VoodooFan

If those two lines on the 6 is his last two lines on his PP, that is very frustrating.

He needs a comfort zone, but at a 22.3 , you would have thought he could get it.

VoodooFan

The Minds Eye also says this horse WINS at a 21.4 with a with a 1 length comfort lead.

A 5.5 furlong 1st call to 2nd call may be faster than a 6, thats the portion of the race thats "shorter"....maybe should have added a fifth or two or at least downgraded the 1st fraction , but his "other" PP need to be looked at to verify this kind of call, comparative analysis.

Even still, don't see how anyone could've got close at the 1st call to him, especially at that slow a fraction, 22.3.

Could've been some other non-contender.

Really don't like those "tenths" and all, whats a 22.7 and such?

VoodooFan

Froggy

The Minds Eye , at least mine, says that at a 21.4 or slower with a 1 length lead, this horse can go wire-to-wire.

The only question is, who can get closer than 1 length at a 21.4 ?

If no one, we walk to the window to bet the 6.

BUT, this horse HAS TO BREAK 1ST OUT THE GATE...he must go wire-to-wire.

He DID break 1st, he did get his comfort lead, at his comfort fraction.

Charlie, THIS HORSE CANNOT FIGHT!!!!!

And not a PROVEN fighter at that.

So the rest of the question is, who could possibly challenge this horse at any call?

If the I thought the 8 would be 2nd position, which I did not because of the 8, he would DEFINATELY challenge at the 2call for the lead.

Heads up Charlie Dude, have faith in Jim "THE HAT" Bradshaw's MatchUP, still learning , man.;)

Though that last line of 6, verifying his other wins, I think I still would be betting him to win, one horse bet.....if there is an advanced MatchUp principle we did not see, we are not seeing, IF this was a winnable race.

VoodooFan

The race before running may set up perfectly as we picture it, but the MatchUp principle WILL still apply....like when we predict a 21.4, or when we predict a wire to wire win, some OTHER horse may get the lead, or other horse characters enter the mix, but THE HORSE is still the winner, whether he runs like we predict or not, the principle is constant.

The 8...., he can get the lead at a 22.4, lets say, downgrading his 6.5 f longer 1st call speed.....

The 8 can FIGHT for the lead at a 22. 2-22.3 lets say, downgrading that chute boost a tad...

Based on this, the race will run OTE.

The 6 and the 8 will fight at one or both the first two calls.

The 6 has not proven he can fight, nor that he can keep going after being challenger or that he will not quit after being challenged.

The hard call comes, can the 8 do this at 6 f, or only at longer chutes?

The way the 8 lost badly in the stretch and final of last race, how is one to evaluate that race compared to his other two good races?

The 8 at 6 f normally runs 3rd at the 1st call and finishes badly in the rest of his lines.

Maybe its how bad he lost that last race.....had he been within 2 or 3 lengths of the leader in the stretch before finishing badly, the call is the 8 still has his 2nd back and 3rd back performance and conditioning....last race may have shown those two races were his best ever, compared to his normal other lines.

My Minds Eye also says, that when this horse was closest to winning, he NEEDED TO LEAD.

His ability to PRESS is a fluke today because there is no other lines to verify this as a normal ability or possibly duplicatable.

Minds Eye says he did not really press BUT was fighting FOR the lead, anyhow.

The MatchUp says we do not look or lock on any one line, the TOTAL performance of a horse , now, just to see this BEFORE the race.;)

Boy, if we could only MatchUp a horse with HIMSELF, more accurately.

THE MATCHUP, JIM "THE HAT" BRADSHAW style, to me, is the BEST factor analysis tool there is.

VoodooFan