Aftermath / Thoughts?
 

The Euro's absolutely kicked ass both on the Pro Ride and turf. Yesterday was a joke as our horses basically were overmatched in practically every race.

Expect more of the same next year possibly worse as the venue will remain the same and the Euro's will have seen the destruction they did and more quality runners will be coming here.

Matching horses and pace readouts will be meaningless as winner after winner shows Euro lines with no fractional segments.

Here is a quote from Doc Sartin years ago on what he considered a "playable/workable race". Food for thought.

"A playable race is one where EVERY entrant has at least 3 North American running lines to evaluate".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6_NGtIr14c

1-The Timeform ratings were fairly useful in determining whether the foreign contingent would be competitive from a performance ratings standpoint based on final time. Whether you used CJ's conversions (Timeform to Beyer) he posted up at PA here:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...39&postcount=2

or used the handy conversion chart seen here (seemed to give you some slightly lower numbers):

http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comp...speed_figs.htm

,they were certainly useful. Unfortunately, they don't include Trackmaster speed ratings.

Of course, you had to believe that the foreigners would take to the Pro Ride, as most had not run over it. Interesting what Curlin's trainer said: his biggest concern obviously was whether he would take to the Pro Ride. He said that training well over it, as Curlin's workout showed, doesn't mean you'll run well over it. Interesting. He said that first time around when he saw Curlin off the bit, he knew he was in trouble.

There might have also been some vulnerability in the steroid free version of Curlin, as it seemed he was just a notch below the monster he was before he was taken off the Winstrol in January. In any case, many kudos have to go to Jess Jackson for placing sportsmanship and the horse's well being first.

2-You certainly could not do a numerical pace analysis, but if you read the comments line on most pp's ( I had BRIS and DRF), you could get an idea of where these horses typically ran positionally. A rough idea, but an idea. I also figured that running positionally early in Europe still may not mean that they would be "up front" even on the Pro Ride, due to the much slower paces on the turf courses in Europe, where they really save themselves for the final quarter. To me, most of these guys would be running in the stretch.

The Breeder's Cup reaffirmed a shift in the way I now approach the races. This shift started about 3 years ago. In the past, I had my favorite tracks I liked to play. I would download pp's for 2 or 3 tracks I liked to play, look at my software printouts, and proceed to bet most of the races offered at those tracks. Some days I won, many days I lost.

Nowadays, I download pp's for most racetracks and cherry-pick races looking for value. I still may bet 10-15 races a day but that will likely cover 6-9 tracks. This has been really successful for me.

Breeder's Cup and Kentucky Derby Days are the 2 days I bet only 1 race track. Yesterday, I played just about every race in the Breeder's Cup and lost money over all. I played much less than I usually do, knowing I probably would lose but I wanted to "enjoy" my day watching the Breeder's Cup on TV and playing from home. As always there was a price to "enjoyment". Today, I go back to investing.

Hope everyone has a great day.

Jim

The Sartin Methodology
 

That the way I look at these days Fun Exciting but
I have to keep my swing sharp for the rest of the year

TIME TO GET SERIOUS Follow up # 6

I had a really good day yesterday focusing on the P3's.. As far as the Euros went I knew I would have to pay up to include them because I didn't have very much to handicap. There were a few that I was able to throw out with confidence but I just paid more for my tickets... The pools are just too big not to be playing Breeders cup day IMHO...

Running style and post position are major factors at OSA. Something to use to pare down contenders with.

Looking back at result charts not many were won on or near the lead earlier this week. The ones that were were mostly maiden races.
Front runners were up against it.

Outside the marathon, which at 1 1/2 isnt relevant to a bias discussion for lack of data, Midshipman was the only runner who held a lead from top of stretch home.

The 1-3 posts have been death, only Zenyatta was able to overcome and she has the running style that negates post, and best in the world talent.

This bias held up for Fri cup races and again Saturday.

I also consider that i 'paid a fee' for the enjoyment of being in the (win) pools the two days, but I lost money for the first time in several years by betting against the Euros. I think European trainers may be figuring out better how to ship horses and who to ship, and I suspect we'll be seeing more and more top flight competition from across the pond.

This makes it difficult for me to employ an incremental energy approach to analysis (i.e. Sartin Methodology) and I wonder if I will simply be more selective in future BC races. Doesn't dim my enthusiasm for my chosen method, because race after race I found my horses coming in the money, or winning (or ranking on top) those times when mostly everyone had ratable lines.

My favourite races and winners of the weekend was a toss up between Zenyatta and Midnight Lute, but the whole process was quite enjoyable (now that the discouragement at losing $ has worn off :)).

Ted

Ted: I have to add Goldlikova. That "turn of foot" in the stretch was one of the more dominant ones I've seen, esp. for a 3 yo. against older, even though she wasn't running against a stellar field.

Hi guys


I know the pools are large and strong, but above are wise words imo. It's maybe better to treat BC as fun like Bill says and get serious at Philly, CT, MNR or whatever track does it for you

I think the game is changing. Expect more synth surfaces, and more foreign shippers. Turf courses may be a thing of the past in the near future. What we need to do is find someone in Europe to get half times for us so we can do third fractions on the shippers. :D

The Timeform conversion numbers did outstandingly yesterday. I killed the Marathon and the one after it, that one on place money only. The two that flew by Curlin in the Classic both had better converted numbers than Curlin did. Can't do pace on the shippers, but didn't really need to.

not 100%
 

The guidelines for playable races might not be that strict
I do recall on the original Validator demo tape that came with the program
Doc doing a race The winner and place horse were in the blbl
but the show horse was an Irish horse- North something
I recall Doc saying the winner and place horses are right there
we do not get the trifecta the show horse was an irish horse with no north
american lines I think the need at least 3 lines for all races was the
personal preference of Aline Best

I believe the guidelines are any race with more than 1 horses
with no usable pace lines should be a pass
Rich if I'm wrong please let me know
Thanks
Bill

Lou, Tom and others i've read seem to give thumbs up to the TF conversion, so maybe using that is the answer until someone gets thier act together.

Don't know how they went on, but PTC produced Beyers for Euro's this time around

starting to come to frution
 

I believe the events of this year's WORLD CHMPIONSHIPS are the beginning of a need to "wake up" the North American breeding industry to the fact that STAMINA is disappering from their offspring.

Myself, and my good friend Erwin (leftcoastracing.com, a Hasting's website devoted to an aspect called his "stayers watch" for stamina horses and his lamenting, like I do, that it is disappering) have harped on it for years: breed speed to speed and eventually we are going to have 4 furlong horses. It is this aspect of racing that I HAVE EXLPOITED FOR YEARS, knowing that earlier horses have a huge advantage since stamina is disappearing in the breed. In 1991, in Unbridled's Kentucky Derby BLOODHORSE issue, the editor's published a long winded editorial I wrote about just this thing and received good feedback from reader's who agreed with my contention that without graded stakes stamina tests, the breed would ultimately be doomed. EQUATIONS need balance, and when speed is overwhelming this one and stamina is under represented, that equation just cannot endure.

If you do not provide a GRADED stakes platform to allow breeder's to understand where stamina lines come from at that level of competition, it will be just a guess as to where those genetic lines come from. The Breeder's Cup MARATHON was a real joke this year and all you had to do was bet all the European horses. THEIR idea of a marathon is the Ascot GOLD CUP, a race of 20 furlongs, and there are many of them. Muhannak was stamina laden with turf pedigree on the top and bottom and even the "dirt" is no longer sacrosanct to the North American speed types.

Time to wake up or the times for European dominance of these WORLD championships is just beginning.

oops that was 1990

This published yesterday
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2008...7/horseracing1

excerpt:
Curlin's failure to make the frame in the Classic was surprising enough for the local fans, as Raven's Pass, from John Gosden's stable in Newmarket, and Aidan O'Brien's Henrythenavigator filled the first two places. But it was just the last in a series of nasty surprises for American racing on an afternoon when five of the nine Breeders' Cup races were won by horses trained in Europe.

Even that statistic does not tell the whole story, as Europe did not have a runner in the Sprint, and only a no-hoper in the Dirt Mile. Look at it that way, and it was five from seven. No wonder the racegoers looked dazed as they walked into the Californian sunset. This was a rout, a rearrangement of the accepted order and the aftershocks may be felt for years.

Four British-based horses returned as winners, while Goldikova, from Freddy Head's yard in Chantilly, took the Mile with a performance that would have been the clear highlight on any other afternoon. In addition to Raven's Pass, Donativum took the Juvenile Turf for Gosden, Muhannak, from Ralph Beckett's yard, won the Marathon and Sir Michael Stoute's Conduit beat Eagle Mountain, from South Africa, in the Turf.

It was an afternoon that, from a European perspective, you hoped would never end. And in a sense, it won't, for another 12 months at least, since the Breeders' Cup will return to Santa Anita next year. After Saturday's performances, you have to expect that the Cup will be overrun with Europeans next year.

Marathon - US challenge here is non existant
Mile turf - US challenge here is Kip deville
Juvvi turf - US challenge here is ????
BC Turf - US Challlenge here is non existant
Classic - US challenge here is Curlin



This is why Euro's won 5-9

Something to tuck away for next year especially for players of Horizontal wagers.. Since we don't have much to go by pace wise with the Euro's. A common trait among all of this years winners is strong recent form. Every winner won last out as a matter of fact, every winner had at least back to back wins.

Consecutive Wins

Muhannak 2
Goldikova 3
Donativium 2
Conduit 2
Ravens Pass 2

words of wisdom from a dear friend who is a very good trainer: MOST of the winners today SURVIVE the pace, they don't close on it. Remember that when you wager. Out front, the others have to come and get them and they usually don't, not the majority of the horses bred in North America.

European Connections
 

I look at connections when I am trying to evaluate Euro shippers. Also as has been pointed out Pro-Ride was a determining factor for many more European horses shipping in. As Richie pointed out this will happen again next year.

Connections BC Mile Race 4. – Goldikova – Trained by Freddy Head. He was the jockey on both of Miesque’s BC Mile wins. He comes back as the trainer and Freddy Head has compared Goldikova to Miesque. I find that European horsemen tend to be more candid when evaluating the chances of their charges. This is my impression anyhow. Owner and Breeder Wertheimer and Frere. The Wertheimer brothers won the 1993 Breeders Cup Turf with Kotashann and the 2003 BC Juvenile fillies with Halfbridled.

BC Race 5 – Midshipman – Owner Darley Stable (Sheikh Mohammed) ruler of Dubai.

BC Race 6 – Donativum – Trainer John Gosden. Owner – H.R.H Princess Haya of Jordan and Darley Stable. Dettori the jockey. Westphalia – Owner – Mrs John Magnier. Trainer – Aidan O’Brien. In all reality owned by John Magnier who is said to be the most influential man in horseracing and breeding worldwide even over Sheik Mohammed bi Rashid Al Maktoum. His business associates include Derrick Smith and Michael Tabor. His wife is the daughter of Vincent O’Brien legendary Irish trainer.

BC Race 8 – Conduit - Trainer Sir Michael Stoute – He has won 4 BC races. And with Conduit this particular race 3 times.(Pilsudski 1996 and Kalanisi 2000) Owner and Breeder – Ballymacoll Farm. An excerpt :

Racing Career: Since it's purchase in 1960, 27 individual winners of Group 1 races (including two Breeders' Cup champions and three British classic winners), who were successful in 48 Group 1 events have been bred at Ballymacoll. Going back to 1957, the legendary steeplechaser, Arkle, was born at Ballymacoll. The best products of the stud include Troy (winner of the 1979 Derby, Irish Derby, King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes and Benson and Hedges Gold Cup), Sun Princess (1983 Oaks and St Leger), Admetus (1974 Washington International), Prince of Dance (1988 Dewhurst Stakes), Pilsudski (1996 Breeders' Cup Turf, Grosser Preis von Baden, 1997 Champion Stakes, Japan Cup, Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes), Golan (2001 2,000 Guineas, 2002 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes), Islington (Yorkshire Oaks 2002 and 2003, Nassau Stakes 2002, Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf 2003) and North Light (2004 Epsom Derby

Ballymacoll Stud is a 300 acre farm originally owned by Dorothy Paget, which, along with its stock of over 100 horses, was sold by her to Lord Weinstock and his father-in law Sir Michael Sobell in 1960 for £250,000 ... Sobell was a self-made television tycoon who was involved with the stud until his death at the age of 100 in September 1993. Lord Arnold Weinstock had a 33-year career as a director and chairman of the General Electric Company (GEC) before his death in July 2002. Since then the stud has been run by Weinstock's executors on behalf of his family and has been a stand-alone operation having to fund itself and not make a loss ... Peter Reynolds has been the stud manager for the past 35 years. His daughter Liz Reynolds is an instrumental part of American bloodstock agency Paramount Sales headed by Pat Costello and Gabriel Duignan in Kentucky

Eagle Mountain – Trainer – Michael de Kock – South Africa’s leading trainer. The growing popularity of the Dubai Racing Carnival on his doorstep prompted Sheikh Mohammed in 2006 to expand his operation to Dubai and Mike de Kock was recommended as a trainer to support him. They met with Mike and Mohammed Khaleel visited South African on the Sheikh’s behalf and liked it.


BC Race 9 (Classic) –Raven’s Pass – Owner – H.R.H Princess Haya of Jordan and Darley Stable. Trainer John Gosden Jockey- Dettori.

Henrythenavigator – Owner- Mrs John Mangnier. Trainer –Aidan O’Brien. (See BC Race #6).

Breeder’s Cup Races 6, 8, and 9 had some decent exacta’s. Races 6 & 9 the top 2 finishers had the same connections. This does not suggest this will happen next year, but in the absence of any pacelines I use the information that I do have available which also includes their performances and also Timeform Ratings. Of course you can always pass these races, and it is true that certain years the European horses in the BC races have not performed as well. In any case I think the European horsemen view the Pro-Ride surface favorably and I expect them to enter more horses next year. Other than Curlin in the Classic I think many of the U.S. Based horses were severely overmatched in several of the BC races.

BC Results
 

I did get involved in actually betting some of these "Connections" I was talking about. Alot of action and a little profit ($95.00). My money management needs work.

The ignorance of the North American handicapper is hard to fathom, when, as in many other areas of their lives, they are clueless to what is happening in the rest of the world. I wrote an article in the 90's called Courses for Horses (appeared in THE BACKSTRETCH) and was really amazed at the feedback I got.

There is a huge thoroughbred world out there which functions independently of what goes on domestically.It would help for folks to have broader horizons in all aspects of how we share this earth.

There is a much more definite "pecking order" in European group races than our graded ones. Horses in Ireland, England and France are far and away the best there with Italian and German group ones realistically are on par with group two's in the former group.

For example,any winner of the St.James Palace Stakes, Queen E II Stakes, the Prix de Moulin de Longchamp, or the Sussex at Goodwood are usually far and away the best milers over there. There are about 4 major sprints as well. The longer races are usually two tiered between older and those limited to three year olds.

Look for Euors on turf and poly, but forget them on dirt.

Jms,Houndog

Thank you for the feedback! Honest to goodness you guys came at it from 2 directions completely foreign to me! Wow!

I need to make sure I can find this thread next year :)

Thank you

They have now seveal courses that run in Winter and Spring made up of some of the same materials that we have here. THEY have noted a certain percentage of their runners perform better over it and even have a Breeder's Cup prep day at HAYDOCK and Great Leighs.


You have to have a GLOBAL perspective not just the narrow North American take on EVERYTHING in order to stay current.

From the Ascot website: "Tonight, at Great Leigh's biggest All-Weather meeting to date, an eight-race card boasts quality "prep" races for the forthcoming Breeders' Cup in California and Frognal in the Thoroughbred Open Juvenile looks one of several handy rides for champion-elect Ryan Moore."

I knew the Euro's both turf and poly would have a big impact. I adjusted my wagering accordingly. My handle for Win bets and Vertical Exotics was much less than in prior years. I focused on P3's and P4's and went much deeper than usual. It really worked out very well as I had my best cup day yet. I had all the Euro winners included except 1:(... And you can guess which one when I told you it killed 2 live P3's and a 2 P4's to 5 horses and 3 P4's to another single whose name rhymes with hurlin which I felt like doing when I knew no US horse had enough left to be any kind of challange about 200 yds from home.

No, actually you don't. You have to "know thy track" as Doc said.
I only need know the track bet at. I know Euros do well on turf and poly, and the lines can be interchanged, whereas on dirt, you cannot do this as successfully. The BC was a goldmine if you threw out all dirt lines period. You were hardly hurt at all, and you caught the price horses. When the Euros run on our dirt tracks, they do not perform nearly as well, with only a handful of exceptions over the years. Both the first two finishers in the Classic had better numbers than Curlin, and Tiago was almost as good as Curlin this year.

The class edges are so great you do not need ( nor can you do!) pace ratings, and just a rudimentary acknowledgment of the descriptions of how the Euros ran - early, closers, etc. Howard always said if you don't have all the information you want, use the information you have. With the Euros, you have only so much available - better get used to it until they provide us the fractions we need to run our programs. In the meantime, I think we will see a proliferation of Euros coming over all year now, now that we have been exposed LOL!, and with more and more synthetic surfaces, there will be golden opportunities for good scores. Turf of poly from Europe are going to be winning a lot of races here. I only wish we could get third fraction times *sigh* for the shippers. Being ahead of the crowd is going to pay off.

The Racing Post converted figs CJ gave out on his site were awesome. Betting them blindly was profitable. The marathon winner - $29 - was a top fig horse...the Classic exacta, even the turf races. Yes, this thread is already on my reminder program for next October!

[QUOTE=tom;42431]No, actually you don't. You have to "know thy track" as Doc said.
I only need know the track bet at. I know Euros do well on turf and poly, and the lines can be interchanged, whereas on dirt, you cannot do this as successfully."

Sort of encapsulates your WHOLE philosophy of life: LOOKING BACKWARDS when it is change that really makes things what they are....The Europeans have made major strides in training for dirt and their breeding program continues to have stamina...a lost aspect on this side of the pond, but stand still,don't re-evaluate and stay stuck in a single mode, that's par for the course with the majority of handicappers.

philosophy of life meaning CONSERVATIVE

just a rudimentary acknowledgment of the descriptions of how the Euros ran - early, closers, etc.

I could not agree more. I closely read the race notes of each euro horse and chose those in good form that closed and I felt could make the distance... It's not pace handicapping but it is adaptability to what was presented. The Pools are too huge to ignore.

[QUOTE=Tim Y;42432] Tim, you make a lot of good points but how can you criticize someone for "looking backwards" when you are constantly harping about early early early. This mantra may be true from the 80's dirt tracks but it simply does not hold up today on synthetic surfaces. This weekends cup put an exclamation point on that.

Regards,

JMS

[QUOTE=jms62;42452]For years and years I surveyed tracks and limit my wagering on early courses which abound, in spite of all of the hearsay that they are otherwise overbet. Evidence constantly backs up this contention as it is re-evaluated weekly. It is what is happening NOW at these courses:You can go to the synthetics (but then they are not anywhere close to being the same, course to course, as Woodbine barely changed energy distributions over the last several seasons and gets crazy early in the cold). For the rest of the synthetics, I simply watch, recognizing those changes as closers have MANY inherent problems with traffic, etc,

Also if you re-read my statement about this, it is NA Breeding, a contention that I predicted would eventually show up and voiced that opinion years ago in a BLOODHORSE editorial that I believe to be responsible for the shift on Saturday along with the change of course.

All of which has nothing to do with betting and winning BC races. Quit being a "musterbator." Your way is hardly the only way. How did your E/L do that day?:rolleyes:

I am not limited in my play like you are. One needs to adapt. Howard taught that - all of Pirco did. Remember the idea of dropping a potential teaching member into new track by parachute and making money from what limited info they could gather? I remember Dick Schmidt and Tom Brohamer were going to Woodlands for it's inaugural meet. Dick was making a track profile from two days data. Tom was betting after the first day. The spirit of this methodology was winning. Not whining.

Caine: Is it good to seek the past, Master Po? Does it not rob the present?
Master Po: If a man dwells on the past, then he robs the present. But if a man ignores the past, he may rob the future. The seeds of our destiny are nurtured by the roots of our past.

Eastern philosophy knowledge limited to a TELEVISION show, why am I not surprised?


To learn what it is all about refer to the Tao Te Ching

Hmmmm..., I wonder...??

If a truth , on it's own , is measured and proven to be true, and useful, what does it matter from the source it came from?

How many famous and/or skilled people where inspired to greater things as a youngster or such , by things , for instance, like comic books or other entertainment ?

So contrived imagination expressed as entertainment inspired absolutely no one and nothing in the scientific or industrial world, ever ?

By the way, that "silly" television show, along with the Green Hornet and others like it inspired a many to delve deeply and with earnest into the serious study of Martial Arts and Eastern Philosophy.

We are supposed to posses knowledge, not have knowledge POSSES us....like some demon from a nether world with a life and purpose all its own.

A knife can be used to heal and used to maim. The knife is not in question but the heart of it's possessor.

A hammer can build shelter or crush a skull, the choice is yours.

True possession of knowledge is humbling, for although it may answer some questions, it opens even more doors, for even more questions and possibilities yet to be imagined.

Was it not arrogence that sank the Titanic ? Because it was unsinkable and the most technologically advanced boat ever made at the time, right?

Even when the lowly man in the crows nest warned of possible impending danger that should be investigated, the captain said not even God himself will stop this ship from it's scheduled course.

The uniqueness of the Sartin clients ADDED tools to the methodology, not snub the different approaches of THE HAT, Tom Brohamer, Sam Wada, Bob Cochran, Michael Pizzolla , Dick Schmidt, Tom Hambleton, Bob Purdy, Burt Mayne, etc., if both approaches are proven profitable, added together makes it even more powerful.

Crushing differences for the sake of one ups-manship is not a cool pasttime.

We are not here to make the other say "uncle", or " now whose your daddy?"

Knowledge is supposed to foster cooperation,wonder,possibilities, advancement, teamwork, fellowship, for the betterment of all, not used as a hammer to breed contempt.

Yeah, I WANT you to be better than me, I would be eager to help you, for then, you will see further where I can not, then you can help me better than I helped you, and the cycle goes back and forth unto infinity.

Real humanity.

Rather than try to understand the reasoning, Caine simply slew Able. Problem solved, so he concluded.

Let's not slay each other.

Condescension does not foster sharing. Someone keeps slapping my hand, eventually I will get the message and not reach out again.

The Titanic, Rome, Egypt, The Great Depression, I guess we will never learn.

VoodooFan