How best to match just using raw/original times and the entire past performances?
 

I mentioned this subject matter in another post area so why not address the question here.

I find myself too many times trying to match a race using both original times and Trackmaster adjusted times. This is seemingly a big mistake because the outcome many times is completely different as to who is early or who can run well against the established earliest. Projected pace is a nightmare without trying to adjust the raw times somewhat especially when considering what the Trackmaster adjustments are doing with the manipulated original times.

Rich, you had mentioned in another post that you prefer to match using raw times and all of the past performances. I would like to pick your brain a little (and perhaps that Hat’s) as to just how do you apply the rest of the past performances when selecting the best pace call time for an individual contender. I must guess that like staying away from very high SR’s you stay away from pace call times that are not proven in the PP’s as being somewhat the norm. If that is the case I assume again that this is a problem with lightly raced horses.

Perhaps you could post some examples of just using raw times where decisions have to be made as to what earlies need to be disregarded as to raw times evaluations.


Thanks,

Robert

Hi Robert,
I'm on the phone with Hat.

We are not understanding what you mean by the above quote. Could you please explain exactly what you are looking for so we can better understand and be able to help you.

Richie

Rich:
Sorry for the confusion. I am trying to utilize the Match Up methodology using raw or original times. You had mentioned in another area that you have given up on adjustments (i.e. track to track and track variant) and were just projecting the pace by way of raw times and the horses entire past performances. I was hoping that you could further explain specifically in which way would you use the horses entire past performances in lieu of adjustments. Or, if you could, provide us with an example of applying the MU methodology using just raw/original times of the pace calls and how would the total PP’s be used in this regard.
I am of cause not talking about a software match with the Trackmaster included adjustments. This is what confuses me so much since there are so many adjustments that many times the pace call times are completely different from the beginning raw times. I want just a pencil and paper like MU application using raw/original times something like “The Hat” would do with just the DRF. I have some ideas of how the past performances would come into play here but rather then guess it would be great if you could provide guidance.
Thanks,
Robert

Mufasa,

Excuse me for intruding, I'm fairly new to this site - but I might be able to assist in light of that.

Many years ago Ray Taulbot made a statement that transformed the why I look at horse races in general and pacelines specifically.

He stated "A winning horse either sets or overcomes the pace of the race it runs against." The key is to look at the way a horse ran in relation to the paces in its individual races. This way you get a feel for how a horse runs when the pace is hot, moderate, or slow.

The premise of the matchup isn't about the fractions your horse ran in: ala adjusted times, the premise of the matchup is about visualizing how your horse runs against various pace scenerios: ala raw times versus running position. So using adjusted times totally destroys the entire premise that the matchup is based upon.

Well before you can get an idea of how this horse might run today you have to project a pace, once you have projected the pace of todays race, now you have a basis for comparison.

Try to visualize the position this horse likes to run in from the past performances, and then pick a line that matches how that horse most likely will run today. Once you have selected that paceline then you can compare the pace of the chosen line to the projected pace of this race to determine how your horse will hold up.


Dallas

"Mu"

Ok got you covered man. I'm going to put a race up which hopefully will help you.

It will also deal with questions regarding how to determine if a race goes early or other than early.

It will also deal with "Power Lines" and using them to pick the winner in TODAY'S race.

All this in ONE race where the outcome i think you will agree is most pleasant for matchers following Jim's teachings.

I'll post full pp's for the field and step by step rundown of the application of Jim's Matchup concepts.

"Mu" please give me a day tops to post up. Things very busy here BUT the race will be up by tomorrow morning.

Richie

Here are the pp's for the field.

I ask that you NOT go and look for the result online.I have lost well over a hundred races online with Jim when he was teaching me.Races I could have EASILY went and found the answer to ahead of time.

The question that needs to be asked of ourselves is this: "Do I REALLY want to learn"?

If you DO then please do NOT look for the result today/tonight. Just look at the horse's pp's.

here are links to threads posted up that NEED to be understood to follow along with this race.
1) Power Lines - http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2619

2) Early or other than early - http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3063

After I lay out the working of the race tomorrow morning the Hat will come on and explain what went down here.

Today's distance is 8.5f on the dirt.

screenshots of original lines

continuing with pp's

Tandems
 

Hi
Ragin here ,
Rich I see you are showing the tandems screen
on the lower half of the screens But the 6 7 8 and 11 all
are coming out of the same race PHA Nov17 race 10
is this right ? because its blank?

Ragin KGEN

Good catch man! I hadn't even noticed. Let's leave the setup and folks can note that the 6,7,8,11 are all tandem from last race.

Good eye and thank you for the heads up

Thanks Rich, I know you are busy so take your time since I am confident that as usual you will deliver big time on your promise.

You know I reviewed the information on Power Lines and OTE you had suggested on your following post to this one (do not worry no peeking), and it was very much re-enlightening. I feel I was thinking more clearly then and since have lost the way. I have started trying to adjust or consider the absolute need to adjust especially after working with the “software matchers” post over in the RDSS area. It mixed me up because of all of the adjustments that Trackmaster makes and it made me think that somehow I needed to follow suit.

I prefer to learn the match up the way Jim has written about it just using the DRF and the horses past performances as given. As to the software because of the different colors used on the faster pace call times it can help in the selection of power lines.
Thanks,
Robert

Thank you for being so honest. Let me do what I can now to help you restore some clarity.

1) When we work with raw data FORGET the word adjust. Trust me.

2) The entire pp's of each horse are there to be used when needed to match horses.

3) Go back and re read the "Power Lines" thread. We MUST know what that is and be able to find each horse's in the pp's.

4) Here is something I would like you to do "Mu". Starting with the 1st horse look at his pp's and determine his running style. Take only a COUPLE of seconds looking. This HAS to be FAST. Trust me again. I'm doing EXACTLY what Hat did with me.

Post here their styles so Jim and myself can see them ok? Do NOT worry about right or wrong. Look-determine style quickly - post them here please.

Use these styles:
E - early
Ep - early presser
P - presser
S - Sustained.

5) When we work with raw data FORGET the word adjust. Trust me.

6) After identifying styles find each horse's POWER LINE and identify it here.Take your time and remember
a) NO adjusting
b) entire pp's are to be considered

Ok Jim and myself will wait to continue til you do the above. Again thank you for being so honest Robert.

ANYONE wanting to participate feel free. You are among FRIENDS here ok? "Hands on" helps and also let's Hat see what's going on with folks.

Richie

Rich, I believe you just want to see how I do at establishing running styles and picking Power Lines even though in maiden races sometimes like in this race it is a stretch to say that a critter has either established a running style or Power Line. In any case I will assign each both an ESP and PL.

1-Romeo’s Gold: S; PL #1
2-Sorry wrong Number: E; PL #4
3-Eight Second Cowboy: S; PL #5/6
4-Kirkwood Ranger: S; PL #2
6-Sapid: P; PL #5
7-Granny’s Lil Angel: EP; PL #2
8-Marquet Capper: EP; PL #1
9-Empire Blvd: S; PL #1
10-Falmouth: P; PL #5
11-Capatain Frank: P; PL #2



PS;
You know Rich after having done this race as to running styles and my selection for Power Lines I have a feel for the race and I will give it now but if you think that in any way that it will cloud up your planned instructions for this race cut it out and forget it. Or just cut it out and if you or Jim could just show me where I might have gone wrong by way of a private message.

The #2 horse is going out for the lead with the #7 right with him definitely by the half. The #2 horse caves in like usual and the #7 goes on with the # 10 and the #8 in hot pursuit and the #11 somewhat behind. In the end I think the #10 horse wins the race with either the #8 or # 11 for second. If I was betting two horses to win it would be the #10 horse and the #8 horse. I would be afraid of the #4 horse for place in an exacta play but not for win against the #10 horse.

Thanks,
Robert

Okay,

Here are my choices for styles

1) Early - but never gets the lead
2) E
3) S
4) S
6) S
7) E
8) E
9) S
10) Ep
11) E

Thanks
Carl

REALLY liking the above quote.

This is where we want to work be Robert. In a frame of mind where the styles and power lines of the horses begin to "talk to us" and guide us to THE horse in THIS race.

Adjustments of any kind have NO PLACE in your above quote. NO PLACE.

Richie

Morning Carl
Thanks for jumping in. Btw welcome to P&C!
Richie

Power Lines:
you have 1-2-3-4-6 nailed.
7 is line 1.
8-9-10-11 are nailed Robert.

Excellent work! I'll put up YOUR lines where we can see them together for evaluation this afternoon. Then we can see what we see about the race.

Very very good stuff "Mu". I mean that

Thanks Rich. Just for the record the #7 horse was the PL#1 but somehow I either typo in the 2 or mistakenly wrote in 2. For the #7 horse the first pace line would have to be the only possible choice.

Anyway thanks again,

Robert

Early or Other than early ?????
 

To determine how the race will run first we identify the EARLY horse(s) in the race.

Early - Horse who has the LEAD at 1st call.

Who is the EARLY horse (s) in this race?

Rich, I am thinking that the #2 horse is going for the lead with the #7 horse catching him between the first call and the second call. Once the #2 horse is hooked by the #7 he will fold as in the past as I see it for this match up. Consequently the race is going to be OTE.

Robert

OK 1st call lead time of the #2 ?

I would think 23 and 1 or 2 5ths if made to go faster he is really dead meat.

ok now the 1st call (4f) lead time?
The screens I show do NOT show the 1st fraction positions Robert. They show 1st call (4f) positions.

ok

Rich, I am getting the times from your page 1 entrie data for this race. They are showing for both the #2 and 7 horses the 23 + call times. Anyway since this is a route I think the #2 horse would like to do the route first call in 48 but the # 7 horse is going to force a 47 and 2 or 3. The # 8 horse can even get into the mix to force this 47 and change time as well.

Perfect.
let's use your 47.2-47.3

Line 3 looks right for projecting 1st fraction and 1st call. last 2 are off tracks. line 3 lines up nice. Would you agree?

23.3 - 47.5 - these are tenths shown

ok here is screenshot of the 2 and our initial projections marked up on top.

If you are good to go now who is the 2nd call (6f) leader and what time?

Yes Rich as to time I am working with 5ths and convert the RDSS data as I analyze it.

I always thought that this race would have a projected pace of 1:13 and about 1 or 2 5ths because the #7 horse was going to make it so. The 1:13 and change definetly hurts the #2 leader and could IMO hurt the #7 in the 3rd fraction because in his last race a 1:13 and 3 was a problem. I am thinking and hopefully correct that a somewhat duel between the #2 horse and the #7 horse to the 1/2 mile call will produce the lower 1:13 figure. And yes Rich I would say that the #2's 3 PL is the line to us to figure if he can go all the way.

ok so if a different horse has now been projected leading at the 2nd call HOW is the race going to be WON.

Early
Other than Early

??

screen shot of the #7 who you project to lead at 2nd call. Let's use his last race 2nd call time of 113.7 (113.3 in fifths) as the time though I see your point about the horses pushing one another faster.

"Mu" I will be back after supper amigo. Races are calling man.

OK Rich, I am working or should I say suppose to be working.

[quote]ok so if a different horse has now been projected leading at the 2nd call HOW is the race going to be WON.

Early
Other than Early

??

screen shot of the #7 who you project to lead at 2nd call. Let's use his last race 2nd call time of 113.7 (113.3 in fifths) as the time though I see your point about the horses pushing one another faster. [end of quote]

Rich, if the designated early horse can not go all the way then it is an OTE race.

I am thinking the #7 horse takes the lead away from the #2 horse by the half mile in something like 1:13.2/5ths which might be a little too fast but he is definitely not letting the #2 horse run the half in 1:14 and change. This is my basis for wining this race with now the # 10 horse because again the #7 horse has run too fast to put away the #2 horse. Even if the #7 horse were to run the half in his more seemingly comfortable 1:13 and 3/5ths the #10 horse with his solid power line and power move in his 5th pace line should blow right by him.

The #10 horse in his 5PL back ran a nice race against a 1:11.3/5ths with a first call time in the 8.3F race of 46.0 so he is a P that can stay comfortably close at today’s project numbers and pounce at the half to win the race. In addition as support the #10 horse in his 7th race back in the slop showed that he can stay close at today’s projected pace.

The only question that could remain for me would be conditioning, and forgive me for bringing this up, but his 2nd race back IMF and his last race of running within 3.5L to the half suggest some good form. I would consider the #10 horse without this form consideration but since it is there why not mention it.

Thanks,

Robert

Other than early/Power Line evaluation
 

ok so we have the 2 horse setting the pace at first call and the 7 taking over by the 2nd call. So with different horses we know that THIS race will be WON by the FASTEST horse with an other than early style.

Here are Robert's POWER LINES for ALL the horses using the last line on the 7.

Other than early/Power Line evaluation
 

Now watch this man. Since the red highlights FASTER pace of race then projected KEEP as final mix those competitive against the red.

Let's do the field FAST.

1- out
2- out
3- red but NOT competitve - out
4- red but NOT competitve - out
6- red and competitve - IN
7- out
8- out
9- red but NOT competitive - out
10- red and competitve - IN
11- red and competitve - IN

Here is what is left. The final question is simply this:

Who is the FASTEST horse and will be closest to the lead horse?

Race result
 

Here is the result of the race.

No chicanery,omissions or skulduggery as you just saw.

Just some RAW in your face matching of horses Jim Bradshaw style.

THIS is Jim "the Hat" Bradshaw's matchup.

TREMENDOUS work Robert.

The ONLY thing we need to focus on when going deep in pp's for a power line: Is the horse still a horse looking at his last couple of races.

Robert you did this race pretty much solo and NEVER used or worried about that dreaded word - ADJUST

May I ask if this was a good experience for you?

Also while we are here let me drop some of Hat's favorite tracks on you to consider ok?

1) Philly
2) Delaware
3) Aqueduct
4) Belmont
5) Saratoga
6) Calder
7) Gulfstream
8) Churchill
9) Turfway
10) Fair Grounds


Richie

Wow Rich this definitely was a great experience. You know if you look at my first post this morning I had considered the #11 horse for place. I am not saying this to pat myself on the back but I really felt good about this race. You know the pace lines looming thing.
When I first started with this race the only thing I was thinking was forget about adjustments just let the past performances show me the way and before you knew it the #’s 2, 4, 7, 8, 10, and 11 were talking to me. I really felt good about my observations and win or lose this was always going to be a good experience.
Thanks for this exercise Rich the need to adjust fog hopefully is gone forever. I now know how I feel when I think I am in the MU intuitive state and hopefully again I hope I can pass any race when this special feeling is missing.
I have played and mostly like all of Jim’s suggested tracks so now I will concentrate my best efforts when they are running. I definitely love Belmont and Saratoga for which I still visit religiously at least on one of the weekend dates when they are running, weather and family permitting.
Thanks again,

Robert

Practice race #2
 

Here is another race emailed me by a member here.

Let's take this step by step.This time I will wait a couple days between steps if folks want to participate.

Here are the pp's and tandems shown for the field.

Step 1 - Identify running styles of the horses and post them here.
E- Early
Ep - Early press
P - Press
S - Sustained
Nothing else please.

Practice race #2
 

continuing with pp's

Thank you
I was not able to do the last race
Thanks for doing another for us and giving some more time

1. Well Documented: E
2. S.S. Crafty: P
3. Game of Skill: EP
4. Kid Hendrix: S
5. Smoke’n Review: E/P (if needed)
6. Nine Positives: P
7. Proudly Pyrite: P
8. Brooker D: P/EP (if needed)

Running Styles
 

1 Well Doc Early
2 S.S Craft Presser
3 Game of Skill EP
4 Kid Hendrix NF
5 Smoken Rev Early
6 Nine Positive Presser
7.Proudly Pyrite EP
8.Brooker Sus

RK

Rich, are we still working this race? Next is PL's right? Or can we give PL's with some opinion on the running of the race to include choices?

Thanks,
Robert

lost
 

Rich
I am lost with the power lines
because of the turf and stretchouts
can you help me get started
RK