Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Sa 3/30 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2143)

JimG 03-30-2007 04:58 PM

Sa 3/30
 
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Race 6....Here is my BL/BL on this race. For me the plays are the 3 and 7 to win. The 6 is strong late and should be thrown in for exotics.

JimG 03-30-2007 05:07 PM

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Race 7 below. A tough race on the downhill turf course. I do not like horses that are off slow on the inside so I am downgrading the 1 a little although he has huge late numbers for the race and should be included in exotics. My win plays here are the 5 and 10.

Dumptruk 03-30-2007 06:18 PM

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Race 7 SA

I think the 2 Rockn USA will be tough here. Only one other bonafide speed in here and he's coming off a long layoff.

admin 03-30-2007 06:59 PM

Hill and Dale
 
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wild line selection

I will agree with you guys
win bets # 2 and 10

JimG 03-30-2007 07:45 PM

No joy in race 6 but the 10 does win in the 7th race and pay $12.60 cash money.:D

admin 03-30-2007 08:00 PM

I'll take it
 
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Thanks Jim

I have not done a Hill race for a while
$12.00 :)

shoeless 03-30-2007 08:12 PM

Bill,Please explain how did you come up with the 2&10?Jeff

admin 03-30-2007 08:44 PM

2 and 10
 
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Quote:

Originally Posted by shoeless (Post 17226)
Bill,Please explain how did you come up with the 2&10?Jeff

Hello Jeff
I did the race very quickly because i wanted to join in before the race went off

here are the APV and CR

Code:


1.  102.5%      2.64
2.  107.4%      3.14
3.  38.0%        0.72  out
4.  132.6%        2.60
5.  74.7%          3.54  OUT
6.  93.4%          2.85
7.  95.5%          4.25
8.  88.0%        1.96  0ut
9    56.7%        3.10 Out
10.  84.6          1.74

Because I rushed I left out the 6
when I was setting up the screen shots I saw this
thia is why the BLBL is slightly different

I eliminated the 3 5 8 and 9 because of the low apv
I ignored the CR becuse a few horses never ran on the turf let alone down a hill

Then I just took the best speed rating of the last 3

I hide the 4 who was 6th on TE and PLS
and this is the BLBL

admin 03-30-2007 08:47 PM

Hill
 
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I went to the Engen and saw the 70 med energy on the one so it was out

Since it was a turf race I looked for the best Late Energy Potental
lep and Hidden energy
I saw the Lightly raced # 7 on top with the long layoff
and went with the 2 and 10

shoeless 03-30-2007 09:36 PM

Bill.Thanks for explaining and good job.Jeff

froggy 03-30-2007 09:47 PM

Interesting race.

Everbody thinks that because this 6.5f race is run faster than most 6f ones that they are looking for early speed. Just the opposite is true, routers do quite well here.
You guys did a good job $12+.

Froggy

emilio840 03-31-2007 06:52 AM

Bill that was a good HIT. I found this race to be extremely easy. I treated this race as a TANDEM RACE. Even thou, it was not a Tamdem race. The Hat has said that when a Tandem race is faster than any of the other horses. You throw all the others out and your winner should come out of the tandem. These 2 horses were in the fastest pace in their last race.

#3 times were 20.4 43.2 106.2 112.3

#10 """"""""""""" 20.4 43.1 106.3 112.3

Since I play only one horse I decided to go with the #10 because he gained lengths at the end while the #3 lost ground

emilio

admin 03-31-2007 07:01 AM

Nice
 
Good Job Emilio

Yes very very slowly (for me )
its starting to come together about the pace of the race the horse ran against

I still tend to want to fall back to blindly taking the best -highest -
speed rating of the last three And i did that in this race ,
But I am seeing the pace a little better

GS
Bill


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