FairGrounds Race of the week mess up
 

Hi Rich
Thank you for the lesson . First off great job on the race
to you ,Racetrackjohnny and all the big winners this week.

Rich, I went back over the race You are the man!!!
Now I see the 114 for horse # 5

Here you will see I must have not been sharp today

fisrt here are my APV CR for the race

# 1 109.2 105
# 2 084.2 0.75
# 3 047.4 0.92
# 4 057.0 0.79
# 5 073.0 1.02
# 6 138.7 1.23
#7 061.6 0.72
#8 098.2 0.99
#9 069.4 0.97

Now here are the original lines I entered into Valm

Right away I should have seen the 114.2 for horse #5
also like I was telling you about on Thursday I sould have
said out load 24.1 48.3 114.2!!! 146.3

AdPacelines
 

Here are the adjustment made by Valm

Hide the 6
 

I am hiding the six Although its my top apv and CR horse its
6th on Total Energy and PLS
here are my top 5

Blbl
 

Now for my mess up
ok I took a chance with the nine a turf horse but with the off track
I thought I had a shot after Valm ranked the LAD turf line so well
when I wass picking lines I saw the 2- 3 tandem
I figured this as the pace of the race However I felt that the 3
would again take care of the 2 now my choice was the
5 or the 8 one of them would win I for some reason
Not BLBL
NOT APV/CR
no Idea plus had I been sharp I should have seen that 114.1!!
woulda Coulda shoulda
Thanks for the lesson
maybe in real time next time I will bet
3 8 and at 45/1 a small bet on the wild card 9

thanks Rich
Bill

Hi Bill,

Hey as long as we stay consistent in OUR way of working races it is ALL good buddy. NO right or wrong way of doing anything regarding racing. Look at the race I posted the other day at Fg ( mandatory contest race) in the RDSS forum. A lot of folks would keep the winning 1 horse ignoring the fact that the 7 beat it. They would have a nice winner right? I HAVE to toss that horse in THAT situation because the matchup consistently applied( as I understand and have been taught) throws him out PLUS 1 horse win betting can NEVER get me to that horse in that race.

CONSISTENCY in applying what we do is much more important than winning any INDIVIDUAL race. I know that you know that too.

2 Quick observations of the race from a matchup point of view:

1) The #7 is a 1:15 2c horse running against 1:11 and 1:12 horses. Couple that with a DEEP sustained style and you have a "no shot" horse if there ever was one at least from a consistently applied matchup application.

2) The #2 showed 1:10 2c paces from Fg 8.2f distance. WHY did I throw him out? Because there is something WRONG with the timing of that distance COMPARED to the 8f and 8.5f races run over the same track. How do I know? I have 5 horses pp's who have raced at the 8.2 and also the 8 and 8.5f distances. The 8.2f distance RAW is 2 SECONDS faster at 1c and 2c CONSISTENTLY. This HAS to be a run up or timer issue as it is definitely NOT a one horse anomaly.

Regardless it is ALL GOOD and sometimes even a blind squirrel finds a nut :)

Richie

Richie A Question
 

Richie, nice hit on the Fairgrounds race of the week. I re-worked the race in Energy since I left the winner out. My question is for the winner would you consider the second race back a "power race".

Although in that race he lost by over 12 lengths he set a pretty quick pace. When I entered this paceline for the horse and using 9 beaten lengths for the finish he shows up good. The reason I am mentioning "power race" this concept was in Jim Bradshaw's Match-Up 2 book. I am just not sure if this race would qualify as a "power race".

Power Line
 

Hi "Dog"

here is a screenhot of the winner's pp's. I have checked 3 races that can be considered power lines for this horse ok?

The Power Line is what makes the horse FAST.

Line 6 we use the 1 mile "backup time" at the stretch call AND position (1st).

Line 4 when we subtract 6.4 seconds( in tenths as these numbers are) and factor in pace of race becomes a very fast line indeed. This subtracting gets us to a distance of 8f where we can COMPARE to the other 8f times shown in the other checked races ok?

I would not consider line 2 for myself ( but it is all good ok) because the
horse stopped like it was shot right after the 2c Mike.

Hope this helps
Richie

Power Line Thanks
 

Richie, I see your point with your pacelines. This horse had several good lines you could use that would definitely make him a contender. After seeing your examples I don't know why I left him out of the program in the first place.

"Dog",

If I may look at line 7.

LOOK at the 1st FRACTION. 23.0 that is a TWO turn race on a slow racetrack Mike.This sucker is FAST early man. Matter of fact in the pp's thread before the race ran THAT line is the one I show for this one.

Hey man listen. Try this WHEN you get a chance ok?

Make today's paceline distance 8f
take the first fraction and first call from that line 7
23.0 ( fifths)
46.4

then switch to the last line and take the 2c and finish time
112.1
137.3

ok Now we have a "Virtual line"
23.0 - 46.4 - 112.1 - 137.3

let's use the positioning from the Mnr line 7 race ok?

2nd - 1.5 back
1st
1st
1st

I have attached a screen shot with the 2 lines I refer to checked
See what the horse looks like now on readouts.

Dog I am DEAD serious when I tell you THIS is what The Hat is teaching me to do in my head with horse's and pacelines. HE does this ALL the time and is a BIG part of his "Voodoo" stuff man. I would never lie or embellish the truth.

What I just showed you goes WAY beyond the 5 step approach and a VERY open mind is needed to even CONSIDER this :)


Hope this helps and that you don't consider me INSANE :eek:
Richie

American Man Voodoo
 

Richie, I did as you suggested with American Man. The first screen attached here is the Match-Up / UXR Screen. I left #2 Perfect Sand in to illustrate why you could eliminate this horse as a win contender. First of all the F1 is 36.44 which is really high for a route race. His F2 and F3 is lowest. Also has the highest UXR. This horse is really deficient in F2 and F3.

Further Confirmation
 

Although Perfect Sand is the 0.00 MUV horse his rankings other than EP are at or near the bottom. This is one are where I will look at the rankings. THe horse is only 3rd in Paragon A and nowhere Paragon B.

Final Thoughts
 

Richie, what you have shown us in this race is really important. I would have never thought of doing this with pacelines. This is powerful stuff. Using the paceline as you suggested the American Man "VOODOO" line really shows up well. As you said this is way beyond the 5 step approach.

Even though #5 Bright Hall comes out on top, in retrospect I think that 3rd line back at CD is atypical for this horse. All that being said American Man is definitely a win contender. Thanks much for your help on this. I am still learning the Match-Up, and I think it is well worth the effort to learn these concepts the best I can.

Mike,
when u get a chance could you remove that 0.00 Muv guy who has no other corrolary support? Just curious if the winner gets into the paragons and what he looks like on the other screens man


Thanx
Richie:)

Removing Perfect Sand
 

Richie, first I will show you the Energy Generator with #2 Perfect Sand left in. Will take him out in the Energy Program. Notice the first call Energy Expenditure of 37.20 on this guy. This was off of his last line at the Fairgrounds at the 1mile/40yard distance. I would agree with you that these are some weird clockings at this distance.

Engen Screen 2
 

ESP Profile

Energy Screen 1
 

Eliminating #2 Perfect Sand

Energy Screen 2
 

2 pacelines for the winner #8 American Man. The last line and the "VOODOO LINE".

Energy Screen 3
 

The rankings screen.

Energy Final Screen
 

The Match-Up EXDC Screen. If you are a 2 horse bettor the winner must be one of your horses. If you are a one horse bettor you have to ask yourself if #5 Bright Hall is too good to be true. I used the 3rd line back on this horse. In retrospect this line is atypical of his usual performances. He did show early speed in his last race, but that was in a field of only 5 horses.

Probably a better line to use for him is the 4th back which is more typical of his running style.

Revised Paceline Bright Hall
 

You might wonder why I am devoting so much time on a race in which the winner paid $8.00. First of all I played the favorite Bright Hall to win and he finished a badly beaten 3rd. Secondly, this illustrates how sensitive Energy is to proper paceline selection. I selected Bright Hall's 4th line back which is more indicative of his typical running style. This makes the race much closer, but these are the calls we must make. If you are a 2 horse bettor you get the winner and the 3rd horse. If you are a one horse bettor it is more problematic. The winner American Man is 3-1 and Bright Hall is 1.80-1.

With the revised pacelines AMVOO (I entered 2 lines for this horse). If you were not following this post from the beginning Richie suggested I try entering a paceline for this horse comprised of American's Man 1st call timing at MNR 7 races back (46.4) and the 2nd and final call of his last race, still using the BL's of the MNR race 1.5-0-0-0. This is an advanced Match-Up procedure that goes beyond the 5 step approach. I am not trying to teach this advanced procedure, but this is something Richie had me try using Energy. What I am really trying to show is how Energy is very dependent on proper contender and paceline selection. (As is the Match-Up).

Anyhow now with the UXR screen we see that one of the pacelines for American Man shows him to be the 0.00 EMUV horse and second in UXR. (Lower numbers are better.) The variegate says sustained.

Rankings Screen
 

The 0.00 MUV horse is AMVOO (American Man) which also has corollary support in the other rankings. American Man is the Paragon A horse and Bright Hall is the Paragon B horse. The variegate says sustained so if you are a 1 horse bettor you may be inclined to play Bright Hall. The variegate predictor although accurate is not always correct. Try when you can to get corollary support. If you are a 2 horse bettor no problem, you have the winner.

EXDC Match-Up
 

The final screen. This seems alot easier after the race is won. Richie had the winner, and no doubt Jim Bradshaw would have had the winner also.

Result Chart
 

This chart is in the revised format that shows beaten lengths as you would see them in the horses's pps. No need to add the lengths as you would the traditional chart. I would like to thank Richie for his input on this race. He was a great help.

Lmao! Dog I am wondering "who the hell is "Amvoo"? I don't see him in the race?" :eek:

great stuff. Really

Excellent Mike. Excellent!

HERE is the corrolary support you need Mike to wager "Amvoo". When I spoke with the Hat months ago he told me that if we put the CORRECT lines in( Using Energy!) for the true contenders look for the winner to have:

1) Strong RAW total energy - top 2 or 3 at most
2) STRONG FX
He said in the limited testing of softwares he did for Howard he could find the winner using FX because it USED FIRST FRACTION in the computation ok?

Now ADD on top of that "Amvoo" is the 0.00 guy WITH support and this guy now is VERY strong contender. Certainly a LOCK with a 2 horse bettor.

Hey Mike CONSIDER trying this "Virtual line" creation on future races.

1) Find the POWER LINE for the horse.
2) Consider other lines for POSITIONING aspects of THAT line.
3) Meld the 2 lines together like you did :)

Then when you get a nice winner that seems impossible for others to get you can tell em " Amvoo" baby!! :D

The Hat does "Amvoo" REGULARLY. We can use it too albeit carefully.

Thanx for taking the time to lay all those shots out. Very cool

Richie