Tampa Tuesday Live
 

Let's take Ted's updated RDSS for a drive.

I chose the first non maiden race on Tampa's card today.

First here are the tandems for the race

here is the 1 horse. not much to look at.

here is the 2 horse. has some gate speed

the 3 horse. another who is kinda tough to even look at

the 4 horse.

the 5 horse

6 horse looks less than inviting

7 horse shows some signs of life

the 8 horse pressed the fastest pace of any horse in it's last race.

we open the form cycle window and will take it's best race. This guy spells potential trouble for earlies like the #2 here in my opinion.

the 9 John Morgan. any relation to the "Captain Morgan" ?

the 10.

lines 2 and 3 show life.

ok gonna throw the 1,3,6 out immediately.

ok so we want to see the new look screen( bl/bl) so let's pick some lines

2 horse - last line where he ran 2nd

4 horse - 2 back where he missed by less than 5 lenghts

5 horse - 2 back where he raced well til the stretch in a route

7 horse - gonna use 3 back route internals.

8 horse - gonna use 6 back route internals where the early pace was "sprint like". also gonna keep last line as that line can influence early pace.

9 horse - line 2 route internals

10 horse - gonna use both the 2nd and 3rd lines. Tough horse.

ok so now here are those lines RAW on the analysis screen

here is the Perceptor with all these colors and stuff :)

the primary screen.

the bl/bl screen with all the stuff going on here

removed a few lines to clear picture a bit.

1) how does the 2 win if he needs the lead and the 8 races like he did in last?
look at how early the 8 is. The 2's life should be over and the 8 stops like he is shot on his own.

This race is "Other Than Early" on paper with the field intact. For MY betting I REMOVE the 2 and 8 from win consideration IMMEDIATELY. if they beat me so be it.

I will post result chart tonight

safe day

Richie

Other Than Early
 

For ME I have removed the 2 and 8 horses. this is what things look like now

This is RAW unadjusted

this is the bl/bl showing ADJUSTED data.

Richie, thanks for all the effort you put into this workup - I know it takes time!

Just to clarify a few items:

on the BL/BL screen, the far right, RS (Running Style) column does not match the Running Style shown on the Original screen,. Right now, the BL/BL RS is merely the ESP column duplicated. It will eventually show your visual Running Style designation (or the software's assessment), to compare with the Energy disbursement ESP style. Early Speed Points will also show up somewhere.

The Perceptor screen is the same Primary Factors as in Speculator, except reversed, in that the owner of the BEST number is shown as 0.0% (rather than 100% in Spec) and all other values are shown as a percentage deviation from 0% - makes it easier to see the distinctions, I think. The P1 Total ranks and margins of separation remain the same.

Ted

is a $ 19.40 win price ok for a 2nd ranked horse here? ;)

Key is eliminating the earlies( even though that cost the place horse. THAT happens a lot when using matchup techniques)

The race certainly ran "Other than early didn't it?)

safe day
Richie

Richie's RDSS post
 

Good analysis. I thought the race was sufficiently ugly to justify some creative line selection. In selecting lines, I went way back on the #5 horse
(Blaine's Storm) and used the 18 april 06 - that's right 06 - 7f at Tampa Bay
Downs. I get to many mixed results using route lines in sprint races, however I am aware that others are quite successful with this approach. As usual, I did the race just before it went off, don't like to leave my game in the practice gym. Blain's Storm, and this is particularly germane in these bottom claimers, fulfills one of my other criteria for a bet; he 's an OA,overachiever. Went off at 14-1 in 12.5k claimer on April 18, 2006, and ran a credible 5th. And yes I bet him to win, but missed the exacta and tri.
Regards,
Chris

I looked at this race too and immediately threw out the 10 as both lines came from Turfway as they transfer too fast.

There were several at Philly today that met the same fate: NO where when using lines from artificial surfaces.