"The Hat" - Practice Race # 4
 

This week we go to Philly Park. I am going to show the horse's name which will also bring in the dates. This way tandems will be readily identified.

Couple of folks had problems seeing tandem horses when I removed the dates last race. Now it's fixed

today's distance is one mile

Rich

Btw - The track announcer there is Keith Jones. A true class act who loves racing. He returns tomorrow to his job after months on the sidelines recovering from SERIOUS neck operation. Very cool

the 1 horse

the 2 horse

the 3 horse

the 4 horse

the 5 horse

the 6 horse

the 7 horse

6 in a hand ride,like the pattern as well as the match up.Jeff

Hi Rich,

If odds were acceptable, I would take the rubber band off the bankroll and bet it ALL on the 5 and 6 horses. If I had to bet only one horse, I would have to go with the 6 based on their tandem performance.

Thanks for the practice races.

Forecast

Kj Hello!!!
 

Rich Thank you for the mention of our friend Keith Jones
A real nice man and reader wish him well

thank you for the full data on the screen shots
I was having a very hard time thanks for helping me

The way I see this race
 

#1 S
#2 E
#3 S
#4 EP
#5 E
#6 E
#7 S

The pace of the race should be 22.3 46.2 112.1 138.1

This race gives the illusion that it is filled with speed. But it is not.

#1 is a slow horse that needs to lead at the 2nd call with time of no faster than 47.2 (he is out)

#2 is another slow horse. He could lead with a 2nd call time of 50. (he is out)

#3 is another slow horse. He won his last two races with the half time of 115,and 115.3 (he is out)

#4 This is probably what the Hat calls an Augly horse. (he is out)

#7 Another slow horse (he is out)

The only tandem in the race is #5 and #6. And this tandem is faster than all the other horses.

I figured that the #5 and #6 will do battle again from the start of the race and the #6 will beat him again.

The #6 should win this race.

The next practice race
 

1 - P/SP
2 - EP
3 - S
4 - P
5 - EP, TANDEM WITH 6
6 - E, TANDEM WITH 5
7 - S
pACE: From Tandem race @ 1mile -70yds, 22.3-46.3-112-144.4, which I converted to a mile by dropping 4 seconds from the final time;

so pace is 22.3-46.3-112-140.4 (in fifths)

Tandem race shows that the six will fight for lead and in the tandem he bested the 5. The 5's latest race, while not quite the fractions of the tandem, show that the five can run 141, give or take (but he needs slower fractions).

The 1 cant press a 112 and is out;
All the routes for the 2 say that he can't keep up with the pace, but adding 2/5 ths to the sprint fraction in race 2 yields 22.2-45.3-111.3 (+2 half furlong increments from 6 to 8 furlongs) x 6.2, plus perhaps a smidge more for deceleration and you get a mile time of 137.2 (+ the beaten 4 lengths) or 138.1. I think this is an aberration because even the projected mile time from the 7f race where the 6f time would be 112.1+ 6 lengths, shows that this horse cannot press the pace setter and with a last fraction of 13.3 or 13.4 (which is more than 6.2 x 2 - the suggested starting projection additions) the final time is over 141. This horse is out.

The best the 3 can do is 140.4, but he'll be even further back than normal - out.

The 4. Won in 142 and change and in line 5 tried to go wire to wire on a 49-114.1, with a final time that equates to 140.3. If he tries to press the 112 pace, he's cooked. Out.

5 and 6 should go head to head, with the 5s 2nd race back showing some improvement, which I think is just enough improvement to soften the 6.

The 7, my favorite kind of line. 7 is SP and while it will be S in this race he gains on the projected pace from 11-8-7, and note that the -7 at 6f is only 1 tick slower than the projected 112; the final time even beaten 8.75 L is 138.3 + the beaten lengths or 140.2.

7 is the projected winner by 2 and more if the pace duel develops and weakens the 5 and/or 6.

Turf Sprinters Stretching out at Sax
 

Hi Jim. How are you??

I like to let you know that with your help and Richie's help my hcp has improved from 10% to about 35%. (THAT'S PICKING 1 HORSE TO WIN WITHOUT USING ANY COMPUTER PROGRAM).

My question: Is there any special way of projecting the line of a (Grass Sprinter from the 6.5f Down Hill at Sax.) to a Route.

I know how to do it with horses on the dirt but those from the Down HIll Turf at Sax, the horses are REALLY FAST. And when I do project them they are faster than all the routers. Some of these Sprinters have times of 21 43 112 for 6.5f.

emilio

Philly
 

Have to keep working as my confidence level is falling fast:(

Running styles
1. EP
2. E but will just be chasing the tandem 5 and 6
3. Late
4. NF
5.E
6.E
7.EP

the 5 and 6 tandem looks like it goes to the lead
the 1 and the 7 will follow behind them and get around the 2 at some point. The 3 might find his way home if they go really crazy.
win bets 1 and 7
and something on the 3 as program cost payer:confused:

This race looks too easy so I probable have it wrong!
POR is tandem 22.3 46.3 112 141 since it is shorter.

Running style-all are S except two tandem horses which are E/P.
All horses are out because too slow for this POR.

This race will run the same as the tandem race with the 6 winning again! Since this looks too easy it probably pays $5 if it wins.
CC Brown

The matchup is fascinating. At first glance I liked the three (Edgar). He has some fast 1 mile times, but it appears that he needs a very slow early pace to achieve his best results. (Isn't that unusual for a sustained horse to need a slow early pace??)

I was at a loss as far as projecting the pace was concerned, but then I think I figured it out.

I came up with a projected pace of 22.6 46.6 144.8 (or about a 140.2 mile). Isn't that an awfully slow mile?

I used the first two calls of the five in his fourth race back, and the final time of the six two races back, which matches perfectly. In fact it's the same race--a tandem.

I was lost in this race until I figured out the projected pace. I believe this makes the six a clear winner. He's a fighter, and most of the other horses are too slow to compete.

Steve

Result Chart
 

Here is the Result Chart of the race. Jim will come on in a day or so and show a few things.

Richie

All of the horses in the race are other than early, except (5) Here’s To All and (6) Barefoot Lady. The Barefoot Lady Tandem is the key that wins this race. In the past performances I used to win the race. Barefoot Lady was in the lead at the quarter mile and Here’s To All takes over at the half mile and the six furlong, but Barefoot Lady fought all the way. Here’s To All quit and Barefoot Lady took over and won the race.

My prediction was a wire-to-wire win for Barefoot lady.

The Hat

Thanks for the Practice races
 

Thank You Mr. Bradshaw and RichieP for these practice races. Am studying this one and the past ones. Looks like we need vigorous work on Running Styles. Especially the difference between Early and Early Presser. Excellent material and Priceless work.:)

Hi Emilo, I wouldnt try to project those 6.5 downhill lines. That downhill race is an entity unto itself. What i do is try to find another line from say HOL, GG etc.
Projectioning or trying to from that distance on that downhill is not a good thing.
congrats on your improvement! Im still using Aoddsgold98 but i can do all the projecting as well as changing the prob pace calls and such. Making progress here too but not a one horse better all the time, (cept those lone e types)

Keep up the good work1 doug

Wonder if there's a distance peculiarity that stands out in the Santa Anita 6.5 downhill turf? :confused: