Questions for LTI
 

Hi Tim

Sorry if you have already answered this

When you put up your selections will you always go with your first horse
or when it is time to bet do it by the odds your getting on the others

Do you have a minimum of what odds you will take for a horse?

Thanks for always putting up your picks

Jeff

Hi Jeff. If I'm going to make a win bet then I consider odds. I will accept 2-1 on the #1 if I feel it's legit and has no defects going in. In some races all the contenders are weak but one has to be the top pick but not a win bet. However I will use it in exotics if probable payoffs are ok.
Tim

Tim

So the 1st horse may not be the one you play in a race
I was just wondering how you go about betting the selections.
You do a great job with RDSS


Jeff

That's correct for win. I wagercap the next 3. I don't do it that often however especillay against legit favs. I rather use the money in exotics.
Tim

Thanks Tim

Jeff

Hi Tim

I am trying to understand the 4 factor method better


I wanted to know if 1,1,2, 3 is ok, but 1,1,3,4 isn’t qualified. Is 3,3,3,3 a throw out


Jeff

Thanks Tim for sharing your research into Rmath's approach :)
Here's a quick recap reference I've used.

I hope this helps.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...9&postcount=12

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...t=13111&page=3
(especially take note of posts #21-#27)


http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14825

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...54&postcount=1

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...80&postcount=1

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...56&postcount=1

Mike

Jeff all of those are qualified 4 number horses. I think you might want to read the links Mike has just posted above. I think you are getting confused with what a 4 numbers horse is and how Richie would rank them for making his bets.
Tim

Thanks Mike for posting the above links. Folks should read them if they have questions on the 4 number method.
Tim

Thanks Tim

Jeff

I haven't posted in a long, long time.

I'm curious. How does the 4 factors top 4 horses compare to just the top
4 morning line horses for win percentage? I can't see much difference.
Am I incorrect here?

Jake

Hi Jake. Don't know the answer to that since I[and Richie as far as I know] never looked at that. It most likely would depend on what horses and pacelines the user plcks. If the user picks viable contenders and pacelines I would think many would be in the top 4 m/l favs
Tim

Thanks for your thoughtful answer. I guess the better question, will the 4 factor method help focus on any potentially viable longshots, the LSP designation? Looking for longshots with a ML rank of 3rd-5th as potential contenders make sense to me, so will the 4 factors method bring anything extra to the handicapping table or not? Curious, because I have no clue.

Hi Jake. Richie did discover a very good LSP angle. What you are looking for is a non-contender that ranks in the top 5 of both VDC & CSR. I have posted many races in the Races of Interest Section where the LSP either won or placed completing so very nice scores. The latest one was R8 @Parx on July 3rd. Screen shots are posted so you can see what the LSP looked like. Naturally the more corollary support the LSP has the better. Also remember that the public does overlook top 5 contenders which provides LSP plays. I have had many #2 & 3 tiered horses win and pay double digit prices.
Tim

Your graciousness is much appreciated. That's an added consideration to always
keep in mind. Thank you for the advice.

Jake

Anytime Jake. I will try to answer any other question you may have.
Tim