What factors do Longshots show?
 

Wanted to ask this question over at PA, but I felt like I would get picked on about this topic. I am a young (18) student trying to learn the game while off school in Canada and just wanted to know what factors do Longshots win with?

I am currently reading "Finding The Hidden Horse" by Conrad Crease, and he says the 3 best "tells" to find a longshot winner or place is:

1) Poor race in last start
2) Cutback in distance
3) Fast workout of 48.1 in 4F and 1:00:1 in 5F workouts

Anyone else have any tips for me to learn about. Was going to write up some notes and try it on some old Racing Forms/Programs and see what works...

Thanks to all who reply

(This was also posted on the RX Forum)

03-30-2020, 06:01 PM
Conley all LS are not created equal. Since you are a member at P &C I will tell you that a viable LS must have some corollary support to be consider as a possible upset winner or in the money horse. Things like counter energy for instance. Also those that keep models have ways to id the factors that win or place at the tracks they play. The more corollaries a horse has the better. Post this at P&C and see what others think
Tim

Conley,


I have done a lot of reading, research and testing on this subject.
Most angles have a short life span and work at specific tracks.
They run a bell curve pattern.

You need a large sample size of 1000 races to check and see what the validity of a given angles might be. I think you will be impressed but possibly somewhat disappointed in the results. This has been well defined in Barry Meadows latest 445 page book "The Skeptical Handicapper". The data which is reasonably current and very accurate, was supplied by Ken Massa, a very astute programmer, contest winner and creator of HTR, one of the best software tools in the market However and in my opinion, his data comes at a very steep price. I believe you can do better elsewhere.



You might also try and find a copies of Ray Taulbots "Book Of Angles" and Boxcars "Angles Library". These books have more angles Then Carter has "Little Lliver Pills".:)


I have recently created 7 or 8 angles That are generalized at certain distances, surfaces and at certain tracks using a data mining application that I subscribe to. These angles were compiled (data mined, researched and back tested) over a two year span. In the past 90 days January through March they appeared only 55 times and produced 47% winners (26) of which 6 paid better then 4-1 odds of higher at a substantial profit. These were single horse plays to win.

I posted one a few days ago on "The UpInClass Board" which won and paid $13+ (March 28th).


To sum it all up. Playing longshots is no piece of cake. :D

You have to have patience,discipline and a large bankroll to possibly :confused:succeed.

The primary factor is that the horse is overlooked by the betting public. The reasons for that are many and varied. And unpredictable. I would advise against specifically looking for long-shots. Handicap the race without regard to morning line or other odds related issues. Then watch the odds as it gets close to post time and bet if the odds seem reasonable and pass if they are too short. First find the winner without regards to odds, then decide if it is a bet.

We posted another angle winner on The UpInClass board. The horse won and as expected and projected, paid a very small price going off as the favorite, This horse offered no value for me but may have been significant for those that make "horizontal" bets.:confused:

What factors do Longshots show?
 

I use my interpretation of the Sartin Methology.

On 4/2/20 my results(dismal? or good)


Tier 1 results

GP 8 #9 ran out at 33.1/1. 4th choice won @ 1.0/1
OP 4 #3 placed @ 43.5/1, place ODDS were 11/1
OP 8 #3 ran out @ 22/1 3rd choice won @ 7.6/1
OP 7 # Top two were scratched so I passed.
Bet one horse only and if double digit odds bet also to place.

Lost 3$(betting 1$ to win) but won $22 (betting $2 to place)
if only betting $1 to place, I still came out ahead.

I'm not betting yet in real life but am doing research and making a good long database.

I bet the best of the last 3. Pass races that have two or more sprinters in a route and visa versa.

There is no way that I'm going to make money by betting two horses to win. I'd rather stick with betting one horse.

Sartin theory and recommendation was to bet any horse going off over a certain odds in the programs top 3 and also bet good price horses to place as you accomplished.

Some just can't pull the trigger on longshots, a real hole in their game.

He also believed in two horse betting as the lower priced horses kept the bankroll healthy until the good paying horse came along and than it was all profit. Betting only one horse increases loses and when that good paying horses does come along most of the profit has to be used to recoup loses rather than profit.

Two horse betting also reduces the number of loses and it helps one to make better choices because their not under pressure from a depleted bankroll. Much better decision making is enhanced by two horse betting. Far too many look at one horse betting as macho thing instead of which makes the most money. In other words its not the road you take but whether or not you get there.

Anyone using a one horse betting procedure will incur more loses, also playing only good paying horses will incur longer runouts too. And today many winners just aren't worth the risk reward to make a bet. Good price horses can't be played at random and within RDSS or any Sartin Factor must be within the top 3.

Two weeks ago I played a contest and in a contest your forced to play only one horse. Well I had 8 alternate horses win and 3 were at very nice odds. I was freaking out about this from a contest point of view but played two horses to win with actual betting money and made a nice profit for the day. If I put the work in such as doing a race or races for a contest I always bet my selections.

I wish you great success wallyHeitz on your journey with Sartin concepts. He has done an unbelievable amount of research that took many years, I hope you take advantage of all his hard lessons learned.

Mitch44

Mitch44:



Mitch, I respectfully disagree with your thinking. If you can provide a meaningful study (1000 races or races run over a 2 year period) on what you have written then I might have to change my way of thinking.
I doubt whether you can provide this.



The Doc's studies are anecdotal and as far as I know and as far as I'm concerned two horse betting reduces you're odds dramatically when you do win and in fact increases the bets you make which necessitates a larger bankroll as opposed to betting a single horse to win. If you are looking for a crutch or comfort, you are in the wrong game.

To me 2 horse betting and 20 race cycles are pure nonsense unless you can back them up with meaning data.

Hey Bill I've been betting 2 horses to win since I joined the group in 90. I've shown a profit every year since 98. I believe there is plenty of room for whatever approach one chooses to employ. And since I know Mitch on a personnel basis I can vouch for the fact that he is a winner.
Tim

Bill your free to believe whatever you wish to along with anybody else. Your right Bill I don't have a 1,000 race study to offer up to you. My experience comes after many years of racing, study,experience, research etc. and proven data research to find factors that win. I can play any race with those factors or any track with those factors . They are interchangeable. Once I find a fact from back testing or research I no longer need it nor do I keep the research material. Those that don't believe it are the ones that need it or need to confirm the fact. Some keep rolling data research only to find a small difference, who cares? The fact remains that it still is profitable and advantageous etc.

Your 1,000 race study is also a fallacy as 1,000 races aren't needed to find a fact. Far too many are hung up on large data bases which to me are a waste of time. Current information is far more valuable that something that happened last year or a 1,000 races ago. Pars are a perfect example of this, immediacy is far more important, track profiles are another and not needed. Data that is forever changing is not preferred data.

I don't consider myself an expert on data collection but common sense prevails and many collect data in a manner that are extremely flawed,no different than s-hit in and s-it out.

I could also be a wise ass and say your 1,000 race study is no good and 2,000 are needed to bring the error rate down under ??? because I did 2,000 and its more specific. I can find out in 21 races about something that will be very similar or an insignificant difference in 100 races . If I find a fact that is 65% and in 100 races and its 65.50 in 100 or 66.10 in 1,000 races I could care less as its a valuable percentage. Hey where does one draw the line? Hell I guess someone has to have 5,000 to get their confidence level up. I'm not into your data base is bigger than mine. Whoopie due!! I don't play those games and I'm definitely not impressed.

In fact on this site I don't know of one winner that is a one horse better. I've seen many try and fail. That macho thing grabs hold of them but they fail to succeed. At one time a person that could pick 33% winners with one horse was considered an expert in this field. With todays low paying horses and races I doubt a 33% winner can show a profit.

Mitch44

Tim and Mitch,
No offense intended.
If it works for you then don't fix it if it's not broken.

However, when someone makes a statement, they should back it up with proof. I consider unproven statements as hearsay.
When you bring a case to court you need to prove your case.
Whether your statements are true or not they are valueless to me without supporting data and or evidence to prove them.
What my left eye sees my right eye will believe.
Maybe you both should post 2 or 3 (Two horse picks) a day so that we can all learn from you. Use and indicate an alternate pick in case of scratches.
Show us all how you can win. If you don't, I completely understand. As many in this game will respond, "I have nothing to prove". Herein lies the problem with faceless statements.

It's amazes me as to how many horse players I have met over the past 65 years that claim to be winners.:confused:

Hey Bill check the selections sections. I've posted enough full card selections with results. If doesn't satisfy you there's nothing much else I can do.
Tim

Bill I've posted many picks here on this site and few if any ever ask any questions. I'll never forget something I learned from Sartin and that is;" that no matter how many horses you pick you're only as good as your last winner." Those that want picks are really asking "do something for me" to quote Sartin.

I'm not here to do something constantly for someone. They really need to do something for themselves. I'm perfectly satisfied with what I do and can do. What I have been doing for years several here now are doing and some of it has been incorporated into the new RDSS.

I've done a ton of work over the years and when the time is available I put up my picks and thoughts. I won't waste my time to prove something to every Tom, Dick and Harry that comes along. I have better things to do in life. It seems as through the ones on this site that don't even use the program make the most noise. Losers are always attacking winners , I suppose their misery is looking for company. I avoid NIPS as much as possible. NIPS are negative influence people.

Mitch44

Tim and Mitch,

Thank you for your expected responses.
I believe I have made my point.
You can be assured that I don't
need or would ever rely on your picks.
I use a solid and winning methods that produces a steady profit. The numbers don't lie. Show me yours and I'll show you mine.:)
I have the past 90 days of data. Which shows a meanful profit and a win rate of over 47% picking just one horse to win. I don't post 4 or 5 horses and intimate that I hit multiple types of bets. I post just one horse to win When I do post.
When you can duplicate that, let me know.
Talk is cheap. Proven results are all that matters.

I rest my case.

Now a days it easy to pick 47%.Years back favorites would win 33 % year in and year out. In those days there were less tracks and more horses or full fields.

Not anymore with watered down racing of 5 and 6 horse fields at tracks like GG , SA and many other tracks around the country. Small fields with many more tracks has raised the favorites to be winning in the mid 40's percentage range. Hell on most days now a good paying horse is one that pays $8 or $9 on a card. That % can also be raised higher with selected type of races to play.

Bottom line is your stat is not an impressive statistic to me. Its a false narrative as to what a person's win percentage is, the real bottom line is if they made money. A person could have one winner a day and make money. While I can pick at least 65% betting two horses and many times up to 80%, I'm more concerned with making a profit.

BTW those that put up 5 selections are only doing that for Ex and Tri tickets. Their not betting those horses to win or they would have them ranked higher. That has been explained several times on the site. Rather than play these low paying horses they play Ex. or pass but will play a legit horse in horizonal bets. Sartin also recommended 5 horses for record keeping purposes and for contenders.


Mitch44

Mitch,


Here's an angle that came up today in the first race at TAM.

These are the situations I look for. They don't always win but this one did today. I pick my spots. This is only one single track example. I have many and use them when they appear. They are consistently profitable.


As I said, Validation lends to credibility.
The data doesn't lie.

Thank you to everyone who has put their thought on Longshots! Appreciate it big time! :)

I have a question for Partsnut if you don’t mind me asking? I have always been interested in BETMIX, and I have for the past 2 weeks played around with the free race of the day and to my surprise, I was picking good horses to win plus some Longshots to get second or 3rd at a good price. I was wondering, if I were to purchase BETMIX subscription for let’s say 1 month @ $50 and I created some mixes for some tracks with MixMaker and made my mixes well enough that I was winning... would it make sense to continue with the program? I have always wanted to purchase a subscription but it was always a thought of is this program right for me and if I put the the time into it, what would I get out of it. Just a question for you and nothing to make you mad or anything. Have a good day folks and let’s get out our winning hats today!

----------------------------------------------------------------------


Conely,


I am not or would encouraging you to gamble. I can only speak to you about what I enjoy and what works for me in accordance to my situation and lifestyle.
I am retired in Florida with a lot of free time on my hands. I enjoy the challenge of handicapping horse races and have been doing so for the past 65 years. I've tried many things and have found BetMix to be the most enjoyable and best application I have ever come across. For me, it's the best value in horse racing. It is a very diverse application which has multiple ways to handicap and to analyze a race.
The making of a Mix is only a small part of it. If an individual is willing or has the time to devote to BetMix, it may prove to be very productive. However, they would have to understand mathematically, what the implications would be as to betting on given situations and what the odds of a given horse implies. The application is governed by about 52 factors and has data which goes back 7 years. BetMix is technically advanced and keeps up with today's racing conditions. It also takes a lot of the guess work out of picking winners.



I would never be angry with you or anyone else here. I may get irritated and nausea may set in when I see closed minded individuals throw out numbers without backing them up without data or making broad based selections and not indicating how they would bet or play the race (before the fact). As they say, talk is cheap.:)

Conley, Bill H (partsnut) - you KNOW there's such a thing as PRIVATE MESSAGE, right!? We've been over (and OVER) this before with non-Sartin programs. No different from any other commercial software - there are dedicated forums for each.

Ted

Nice example Bill but to use your words credibility comes before the fact or demonstrated performance. Did you bet it ? Where's the ticket? Anybody can find a decent paying horse after the fact. Put it up before.

Some more of your words; " I see closed minded individuals throw out numbers without backing them up without data or making broad based selections and not indicating how they would bet or play the race (before the fact). As they say, talk is cheap." You could add to this, throw out results after the fact.


" before the fact". I'm dying to see your 47% for a one horse bet and back up that braggadocio.



Patiently waiting,


Mitch44

------------------------------------------------------------
The single pick selections I post are always before the fact. The race example I posed was just that " an example".


Check out the last 2 races I posted on the UPINCLASS board.



Where are your selections?
What have you done or posted lately?


Show me yours and I'll post mine.
As they say in B'klyn "put up or shut up

Gentlemen, gentlemen......

I am sure you have all seen my post calling for contestants for the 2020 Lonesome Cup under General Discussion. In a week and a half only three others besides myself have been willing to put their reputations on the line and pick winners over time for the grand sum of $10.

If you are all as good as you say you are the format will allow you to shine. There will randomly be enough races for everyone to do their thing. And obviously I am willing to put in the time to run it and track it. You put up your selections before post time. Actual final selections, not just lists of contenders. If you don’t like the odds you are getting, don’t post any selections. One horse bettors, two horse bettors, Sartinistas, Matchers, other methods based on pace, all are welcome. Done until maybe the end of May as long as tracks are running.

I was only looking for a minimum of ten players. If all you folks sniping back and forth here signed on we would probably be there.

It’s a friendly thing just for fun. Nobodys going to win a ton of money. No judging. I am sure all you guys are pretty good in your own individual ways and will probably all show various levels of profit. I know most of you have decades more experience than I do and I will be pulling up the rear. But so what. We can see how the big boys do it and some of us might learn a thing or two. Some of you will say that you have nothing to prove etc. etc. but......

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12870

Pook

First Bill I've never heard of UPINCLASS board and could care less about. Where are my selections? Well on this site that's easy as everyone of my posts can be looked up. Of course you know that, but you forgot. Anyway go check it out.

What have I done lately? Well first of all I have a life and more important things do. I'm presently more interested in doing research for more winning factors to add to my arsenal. Testing etc.

I'm not the making false claims here or bragging while you try to disparage Lt1 and I. I won't stand by being idle while you attempt that. Neither of us bragged but you did so I want to see the truth which is demonstrated performance. All I see is more BS and bragging. In fact everyone on the site is waiting for your back up. Personally I believe you backed yourself into a corner, now answer the bell.

I seem to remember a day last year at Tam when you posted some longshot picks and I played along. That day I believe it was 4 to 0 with some nice longshots. BTY I had the 4 good ones with tickets. Maybe you took it personal which I didn't. So when your looking up mine,look that up.

I'll never forget something Ted said in reference my Monkey picks (which were good priced horses with winning tickets) Ted said " it gets redundant after awhile" so with that I thought he made a valid point and moved on. I still get some real nice winners but don't put them up. I don't have to prove anything to anyone but only to myself.

Again patiently waiting,


Mitch44

Mitch, I see it as just the opposite way.
Reversing the situation and shifting your inefficiencies on me is an old ploy which exhibits your trepidation and inadequacies. In my opinion, your responses are very weak.



I am not going to preach to the choir. It falls on deaf ears.
It's a complete waste of my time and energy.

I've stated my views and made my point.
I will depart from this conversation with a favorite saying of mine.
"You can't fix stupid".


Enough said.

Check out this response.


Bill I saved you some work and looked it up. Just posted it.

Yes you should withdrawal as you lost this battle.

Still waiting for that 47% with one horse as are all members.


Mitch44

Well here's how I see this.


"It's a complete waste of my time and energy."


By all means let's not do that, so here's my proposal a one on one contest for $500 or $1,000 winner take all between you and I. I don't want to piddle around with my time for peanuts plus I love maximum pressure and thrive on it.


We all trust Ted and I can have my check to him within a couple days or bank transfer within one day on Monday. He can hold the funds so there will be a guaranteed payment. I would suggest some Satin criteria such as 20 races to be picked by an independent person such as Ted. No cherry picking to one's favorite track, dis, surface etc. Picks in prior to post and first to an independent person so neither one of us can copy each others picks. 3 choices only. Score 10 pints for a number one pick and 7 for a number 2 pick. This should give you an advantage with your 47% number 1 picks but I'll concede that.The 3rd pick only comes into play for scratches and then it moves up.


Patiently waiting,


Mitch44

Mitch, that would be an entertaining head to head between any players here. But - Bill H (partsnut) has been suspended (again) for violating the Code of Conduct of this site (the part about not calling members stupid, also something about 'trepidation' and 'inadequacies'.

Not sure how the conversation went from "I respectfully disagree..." and "No offense intended ..." to the above. My guideline is: if you appear over say, 21 years old (OK, maybe 40, wait 60 - OK certainly 80) then you have had ample opportunity in life to learn to be respectful and not be baited by discussion contrary to your own thinking. What is permitted for one must be permitted for all. If this behaviour were permitted for all, then this board would shut down.

As a moderator, my hand was forced. Each member has their finger on their own remote, so to speak.

So, something about Longshots?

Ted

To everyone here I feel bad sending this on the topic on Longshots even though it would have been a better idea to just PM partsnut rather than blab on about a non Sartin program. Very sorry to you Ted for not listening again and sorry for banning Partsnut. Sorry everyone. Anyways back onto the topic of Longshots shall we?

Sloppy runners today at Oaklawn look good to me.

Well Ted I'm sorry to hear that and never expected something like that. Plus I was looking forward to making some $$$$$.


Perhaps I'm mellowing with age but I would ask that you reconsider it as I took no offence from those comments.


Mitch44

Yeah come on Ted! I was looking forward to the battle of the titans too.

Pook

Sorry Mitch and Pook, I didn’t mean to get you guys in trouble or off topic of Longshots. Feel bad now...

No worries Conley. We aren’t in trouble. Things went off topic. Thats all.

Pook

Ok that’s good. I caused parts to get kicked off the thread for my actions :o

No Conley, parts got himself kicked off. You did not do it.

Conley (CheckMark), no worries. You got good answers above.

Bill H (Partsnut) wrote me that he expected to be suspended, yet he did it anyway! Sheesh! Do I have to say this for the 1000th time? You can disagree or argue or even express frustration with the views of other members but you can't be disrespectful or call people names. Some people do not know how to not escalate disagreements, and in such circumstances sometimes must also have the LAST word, which is difficult if there's more than 1 such person in a discussion.

Please check the date on the Code of Conduct post by Bill V. This is not a new requirement of members.

I do not believe that the majority of P&C members want me to allow any and all name calling, belligerence, disrespectful dispute. FWIW, I do not want to post on or be responsible for a site where that is allowed, which explains why I barely post on some other handicapping sites.

Mitch, Pook - sorry to disappoint you regarding a prospective handicapping match, but IMO, that was never going to happen and if it did, it would be for the wrong reasons.

And to forstal criticism that I am favouring RDSS clients - a majority of posters in this Thread do not use RDSS. I would refund someone's money before I let them behave inappropriately here.

Ted

Correction - a slight majority do use RDSS.

Ted

And a slight minority of us fall into the distant cousin category of "The Match Up" ! ;)

The DNA of The Matchup is at the core of all Sartin programs and concepts: we're all kissin' cousins :D


Ted

I like my DNA straight from the horse's mouth. Or The Hat's. :cool:

I have found that there is no one size fits all when it comes to longshots. As an example a horse that won its last race and stepping up in class which is logical or repeating. Repeats while bucking the percentages to do so. These are the results as an example :1 the horses loses and runs to the percentage with over a 80% lost, 2. the horses wins and pays $5.60, 3. the horses wins and pays $50.00. Actually I've seen this in the last two weeks.

Is it the result of one stable being a betting stable and the other not a betting stable?
Or is it the result of a public mistake? I lean more to a public mistake which occurs much more often. Even a horse paying 5-2 or $7 could be a public mistake and a overlay.

While there are many hundreds of angles,I hesitate to put a number on it and used a conservative approach of hundreds, almost any angle can and does produce longshots. This includes the factors within RDSS.

Almost all longshots go against the norms such as long layoffs (over 90 days) or repeat winners.When one observes these angles and the odds are long they become a red flag in the make up of our thinking process and decision making process. Hence many can not pull the trigger or pass them up as non-logical.

I have also seen many times where there are 3 or 4 horses with the same angle within the same race. One usually wins but separating them is frustrating.

The best advice I can give is: if you want to know about the unknown than you must investigate the unknown. And even then its a very difficult assignment but it allows you to turn a nothing burger into a decent burger to your liking. I've been doing just that for the last 4 years or so and its tedious work but there are some nuggets to be found.

Lastly in previous posts to this thread there was much discussion about large data bases. With RDSS and some other Factors out there a data base is not needed. Within RDSS Sartin has already done all that work for us.

He developed forms on new Factors and programs and hundreds of devotees sent in feedback. Our LT1 on this site along with others such as Rmath did this and some of their feedback and results were published in Follow Up's. One reason he did this was to see how something worked across the board and not rely on only his local track of SA.

Also Bob Purdy kept a computer containing over 50,000 races which they used to test new ideas, programs and Factors within those programs. As an example to hone and obtain the very best variant adjustments etc. they could develop. Incidentally those Variant adjustments changed dramatically over the years from the Meridian Variant one that first appears circa 1982-1988 in the original Yellow Manual.

The factors within RDSS have already been tested and data based to death by Sartin therefore forget about it. He did this for you. Neither I nor you need to take on all this work and monster task. PERIOD!!!

Now if your new to RDSS and are unfamiliar with the program do a small study to see for yourself, it will boost your confidence. In fact many of us say and freely talk about the best factors within RDSS.

Thank you Doc Sartin.

Mitch44