Best Play / Spot Plays - 2019
 

Starting this for anyone that has spot plays or willing to put their best play from a certain track. I am trying to do 10 plays from certain tracks for whole year!
Also including ***BestPlay*** which is my most confident play within my plays!

GG R7 #4 American Currancy 9/5
GG R9 #2 KY Colonel 9/2
SA R6 #5 Very Very Stella 8/5
SA R9 #8 Lucky Student 9/5 ***BestPlay***
AQU R1 #1 Sounds Delicious 4/5
AQU R3 #1 Annette’s Humor 8/5
AQU R7 #8 Picco Uno 6/5
PRX R4 #6 Ms Locust Point 5/2
PRX R5 #10 Cape May Perry 2/1
FG R5 #2 Parade Blue 2/1

GG R7 #4 4th
GG R9 #2 nowhere to be seen
SA R6 #5 6th
SA R9 #8 WON, $4.60
AQU R1 #1 2nd
AQU R3 #1 2nd
PRX R4 #6 WON,$2.80
FG R5 #2 WON,$3.00

Scratches: AQU R7 #8 and PRX R5 #10

TOTAL: 3/8 (37.5%)
TOTAL PAYOUTS:$10.40

1/2/19 Spot Plays

GP R2 #5 Mr Meshak 2-1*
GP R7 #7 On The Town 7/2
GP R8 #6 Nairobi 7/2*
GP R10 #4 Collins Ave 3-1 ***BestPlay***
TP R2 #1 Whenbetterthannow 7/2*
PEN R8 #1 Cheverie 4-1

*- Other methods that is not my Origional spot play method.

GP R2 #5 WON,$5.60
GP R7 #7 4th
GP R10 #4 WON,$3.60
MVR R4 #2 4th
TP R2 #1 WON,$2.10
PEN R8 #1 WON,$4.20

Scratches:
My 2 delta plays since it was running until they cancelled the rest in R5!

So very good day today for my plays!

TOTAL %: 7/15 46.6%
TOTAL $: $25.90
***BestPlay***: 2/2 100% $8.20

1/3/19 Spot Plays

PEN R2 #3 Seductive 4-1*
PEN R8 #8 Badmoonontherise 9/5
TP R2 #4 Godello 3-1
TP R5 #4 Liberty Fire 3-1*
TP R6 #1 Fayethewarrior ***BestPlay***

PEN R2 #3 6th
PEN R8 #8 WON, $2.80
TP R5 #4 WON, $5.20
TP R6 #1 3rd

Scratches
TP R2 #4

TOTAL TODAY: 2/4 50% $8.00
TOTAL ***BEST PLAY*** TODAY: 0/1 0% $0.00
TOTAL YEAR: 9/19 47.3% $33.90
TOTAL ***BEST PLAY YEAR***: 2/3 66.6% $8.20

Spot Plays 1/4/18

GP R4 #4 Tathqueef 2-1
AQU R1 #5 Paynterbythenumbers 8/5
AQU R2 #2 Spunto Run 8/5
FG R5 #4 Mr. Al’s Gal 8/5 ***BestPlay***
SUN R3 #3 Kj Hotflash 8-1 (my first price of the year!)
SUN R6 #8 Woody’s Copy Cat 5/2
SUN R7 #8 Swearegen 5/2
SUN R9 #10 Valiant Tort 5/2
SA R2 #1 Smart Rachel*
GG R2 #6 Anotherwistafate 1-1*
PEN R5 #1 Long May You Run 8/5
TP R1 #4 Late Girl 2-1
DED R9 #2 Taylor’s Spirit 3/2

*- not spot play system

Spot Plays 01-04-19
 

Spot Plays 01-04-19

I am looking for 4-1 odds at the gate or pass.
my preference would be strictly single pick win bets.

Results TAM R-6
 

One of the few bettable races.

GP R4 #4 2nd
AQU R1 #5 2nd
AQU R2 #2 3rd
FG R5 #4 4th
SUN R3 #3 5th
SUN R6 #8 WON,$2.80
SUN R7 #8 3rd
SUN R9 #10 2nd
SA R2 #1 WON,$7.40
GG R2 #6 WON,$2.40
PEN R5 #1 WON,$3.20
TP R1 #4 2nd
DED R9 #2 2nd


TOTAL DAY: 4/13 30.7% $15.80
DAY BestPlay: 0/1 0% $0.00
YEAR: 13/32 40.6% $47.90
YEAR BestPlay: 2/4 50% $8.20

Spot Plays 1/5/19

GP R1 #8 Song of Melody*
GP R7 #8 Midtown Rose 7/2*
MVR R7 #2 Royal’d 3-1
PRX R7 #3 War Trade 9/2
LRL R1 #5 Celtic Treasure 3/5
LRL R4 #2 Empire Panther 5/2
SUN R1 #7 Supreme Giant 5/2
SA R6 #7 Spoken Eagle 4-1 ***BestPlay***
SA R7 #7 Next Shares 7/2

Spot Plays 1/5/19
 

I am looking for 4-1 odds at the gate or pass.
my preference would be strictly single pick win bets.

AQU R -4.....#7.....ML 9-2

AQU R -6.....#3.....ML 7-2

FGX R -7.....#1.....ML 12-1

LRL R -2.....#6.....ML 30-1 :confused: SPEED KNOCK

SAX R -5.....#4.....ML 7-2

TAM R -7.....#9.....ML 12-1

The best I could do was a $28.20 place horse.

GP R1 #8 WON,$3.60
GP R7 #8 5th
MVR R7 #2 4th
PRX R7 #3 4th
LRL R1 #5 WON,$3.40
LRL R4 #2 WON,$4.80
SUN R1 #7 WON,$2.80
SA R6 #7 WON,$9.40!!!!!!!
SA R7 #7 Next Shares WON,5.20

TOTAL DAY: 6/9 66.6% $29.20
TODAY BP: 1/1 100% $9.40
YEAR TOTAL: 19/41 46.3% $77.10
YEAR BP 3/5 60% $17.60

Spot Plays 1/6/18

AQU R7 #4 My Best Friend 8/5
LRL R4 #1 Whateveryouwant 8/5
TB R8 #1 Go Away 2-1
FG R5 #6 Never Even Called 5/2
LAD R2 #1 Freakin Patriot Dash 6/5
LAD R5 #4 Louisiana Caliente 5/2
LAD R7 #6 That Is Spot On 5/2
TUP R2 #3 Lett Her Bea 6/5
PM R1 #8 Er Cartel 2-1
PM R2 #6 I Ain’t Callin 3-1
SA R7 #4 El Huerfano 3-1
SA R8 #2 Bellafina 4/5
GG R5 #4 Lady Chrome 1-1 ***BestPlay***

I will look for 4-1 odds or better at the gate or I will pass the race. I will only bet my single pick selection for win.

Results AQU R -8

[QUOTE=CheckMark;118972]Spot Plays 1/6/18

AQU R7 #4 2nd
LRL R4 #1 2nd
TB R8 #1 3rd
FG R5 #6 5th
LAD R2 #1 WON,$3.80
LAD R5 #4 4th
LAD R7 #6 WON,$8.80
TUP R2 #3 4th
PM R1 #8 WON,$3.80
PM R2 #6 WON,$5.40
SA R7 #4 6th
SA R8 #2 WON,$2.80
GG R5 #4 5th

TODAY TOTAL: 5/13 38.4% $24.60
BP TODAY: 0/1 0% $0.00
YEAR: 24/54 44.4% $101.70
BP YEAR: 3/6 50% $17.60

School starts tomorrow so might only see a few.

Was thinking about this play. Nice work!

Spot Plays 1/7/19

MVR R9 #1 Megawatt 9/2
TUP R1 #5 Serbian Syclone 9/5 ***BestPlay***

Sorry for the short plays :(

MVR R9 #1 5th
TUP R1 #5 WON,$3.20

TODAY 1/2 50% $3.20
TODAY BP 1/1 100% $3.20
YEAR: 25/56 44.6% $104.90
YERR BP: 4/7 57.1% $20.80

I am deciding to (possibly) do only my best play but will tell you tomorrow if I will still do my spot Plays. If I do ONLY my best play, it will be like “Chalk Buster” from Brisnet.

OK, so I have decided to stop using my spot play system and go for ONLY my
***BestPlay*** for the rest of the year! Ted, if you are seeing this, can you please switch it to ***BestPlay***/Spot Play thread 2019. That way I can post my ***BestPlay*** and others can post their spot plays!


YEAR RECORD FOR BP: 4/7 57.1% $20.80

I am also including a 10 cent super play along with my ***BestPlay*** for that specific race!

1/8/19 ***BestPlay***

PRX R4 #4 Thatta Boy Girl 8/5

10 cent Super Play: 4/1,3,4,5,6,7/1,3,4,5,6,7/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8= $10.00

PRX R4 #4 2nd

10 cent Super Play missed out on a $131.96 payout! :(

YEAR BEST PLAY: 4/8 50.0% $20.80

For my ROI
HIT RATE: 50.0%
BET: $40 ($5 times 8 races=$40)
RETURN: $2=$20.80 My $5 Bets= $52.00
PROFIT: $12
ROI: Profit/Bet Total*100= $12/$40*100= 30%

Not sure if that is correct formula but I think 30% is good?

1/9/19 ***BestPlay***

TUP R7 #8 Something About Me 1/1 (Even)

10 cent Super Play: 8/1,2,3,5,8/1,2,3,5,8/1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 =$6.00 :)

You should keep everything on the same $2 cost basis - Payoffs to $2 and Bets to $2 (not payoffs to $2 and Bets to $5 :confused:). Thus:

Cumulative Stats ($2 Win Bets):
Hit %: 50% (4/8)
Bet $: $16.00
Ret $: $20.80
Net $: $4.80
ROI%: 30%

Simple! And - congratulations Conley!

P.S. - Don't mix Win bets with other bets in your reporting. Report each Bet Type separately - e.g. Win, Exacta, Super, etc - and summarize them all periodically, to show how you're doing overall.

Ted

Ted, thank you. Yes I should have put if for $2 instead of my "$5 bet". And I am not counting my supers anymore, today is the last day for doing those. From now on I will ONLY do my ***BestPlay*** along with the suggested $2 ROI summary. Hopefully positive and a good number for the rest of 2019. I am just getting started ;)

If you can maintain ANY kind of positive ROI% over say, a couple hundred races without too serious Bankroll fluctuations - and document it well, here - you will gain serious credentials.

(And pay your way through college or anything else you choose to do ;)).

Good luck!

Ted

TUP R7 #8 2nd :mad:

Year BP: 4/9 44.4%
BET: $18
RETURN: $20.80
PROFIT: $2.80

PROFIT: 15%?

Amazing
 

Your investment to risk is like the pick six.
May all of your tickets be Winners.

Thank you and same to you! Just hoping for a positive ROI.

1/10/19 ***BestPlay***

GP R6 #8 A Bit of Both 2/5

GP R6 #8 2nd and my 3rd 2nd place finish in a row!

BET: $20
RETURN: $20.80
PROFIT: $0.80
ROI: 4%?

Conley are you only making win bets?. Also why would you wager on a horse going off at 1/9. Finally the horse paid $2.10 for place and show so can you explain your math.
Tim

Ok I see where the $20.80 is a total return for all your bets. Still can't see why you would bet a 1/9 horse.
Tim

I should have bet the :2: to win but thought :8: could go off at a better price.

And yes ted suggested to show my $2 win bets

My point is you need to realize that you don't have to bet a best bet every day. There is no reason to invest in this race where there was nothing to be gained. Learn to preserve your bankroll. I know you have seen how Parts Nuts demands a price and if doesn't get it he passes. No one ever lost money passing a race.
Tim

Ok thanks for the heads up LT. I will look more for prices and instead of low favourites.
This one hopefully goes off a ML odds and not a short price =(

1/11/19 ***BestPlay***

SA R1 #1 Big Base 5/2

You can just set what odds you will accept on your best say 5/2 or 2-1 If it goes off less then the set odds the race is a pass and just note it on your result recap.
Tim