Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php)

- Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=116)

- - Parx r9 11-17 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11958)

RDSS came thru again today at Parx r9 a 125 clm race3+f n3l. MY contenders were 1-2-3-6-7. I used line 1 for all the horses. On the bl/bl screen the tiers ranks were as follows BLSCORE BL ODDS VDC CSR
#1 23.5 1 1 2
#2 21.5 1.6 1 1
#3 19.3 2.0 3 3
#7 18.0 2.5 4 2
Secondary
#6 9.0 6.0 5 4
The RX Screen tier ranks were VDC CSR PL BPP ML LIVE
#3 3 3 3 3 6-1 3-1
#7 4 2 4 2 4.5 6.1
#1 1 2 5 5 5-1 9-1
#2 1 1 1 4 2.5 2.5
Secondary
#6 5 4 2 1 3.5 2-1

With 2 mins to post I made the following bets
completed 60-1ad-70092 parx r9 $2w/p 1-3 bet $8 ret $33.80 +25.80
completed 194a8-4ff70 parx r9 $2ex box 1-2-3 bet $12 ret $102.20+90.20

The result were as follows
#1 $20.80-$8.40-$5.00
#3 - $4.60 $3.60
#7 - - $4.40
$2ex 1-3 $102.20
.50 tri 1-3-7$173.75
10cent super 1-3-7-5 $1248.01
$2dd 1-1 $36.80
$p3 8-1-1 $345.20

For my contender selection I take the top 5 ranked PL and BPP horses. I also use Tom Brohamers' up close at the stretch call and William Scotts' form factors and Bill Quirins' failure definitions to move horses up or down the tier levels when warranted.

The program does the rest. No more worrying about what adjustment to make like we had to do with the older programs. It's all done for us.
Tim

Nice work Tim

Good days score, Good to see things are clicking,,
Keep it up

Love Peace
Bill

Thanks Bill. You know us old farts got to keep up with the new jacks lol.
Tim

Very nice score Tim, thanks for sharing. Keep it rolling and I think your the President of that Park Bank.

Mitch44

Thanks Mitch. Just trying to keep up with that monkey of yours lol.
Tim

Tim,
If I had your good looks and money I'd be smiling all the time too man! Karen and I hope you are doing great :D:D

P.S. - Nice hit!

Thanks Richie. I don't know about looks but I sure would't mind having that monkey. Things are still the same with me as when we last talked at the Desmond. Hope you and Karen are doing well. You guys are in my prayers
Tim

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1 (Post 118420)

I've had this post bookmarked for several weeks and have re-read it numerous times. I suspect it flew under the radar and many readers didn't appreciate what Lt. Tim was giving us. But this is how a winning horseplayer does it. I've had the pleasure and the privilege of sitting beside him in his living room, watching him do this and then going to Belmont and watching him cash.

His method is a mix of the old and the new. The new is RDSS and the PL and BPP rankings for contender selection. The old is William L. Scott's "form factors," modified by Tom Brohamer's "up close" definitions, and Dr. Bill Quirin's "form failures". Horses with form defects and form failures get demoted.

While Lt. Tim didn't go into details, it's obvious that #6 (post-time favorite) and #7 had form defects and he demoted them, leaving #1, #2, and #3. He bet the two longer odds horses to win and place, then boxed all three in an exacta. And presto! His $20 bet returned $135.

Lt. Tim has done this so many times, he can rip through a card in no time. For those of us who don't have Scott's form factors memorized, it's more arduous. (Sorry, no free lunch.) The more you do it, however, the easier it gets, just like most things. ;)

Yes, very informative thread. Thank you Tim, and Mick for resurrecting it.

I tried searching the site for the guidelines: "form factors," "up close", and "form failures." No luck, are there any references?

If not, what would the book titles be?

Thanks for any help,
Vic

Hi, Vic.

William L. Scott's book is "How Will Your Horse Run Today?" and Dr. Bill Quirin's book is "Winning at the Races." The Tom Brohamer material is here on P&C at http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11313

I've written a summary of Scott's book which I'll post for you when I get back to my home computer tomorrow.

Vic, if you decide to purchase these, buy a hardback copy of Mr. Scott's book, not the paperback. The paperback was published first and was so well received that he subsequently published it in hardback, adding more information. Last time I checked, there were plenty of hardbacks available on Amazon.

Personally, I've found that Mr. Scott's form factors are more effective in claiming races at mid-level tracks like Parx, especially the "recency" factor. A claiming horse that hasn't raced in a month or more probably has physical issues. The better trainers can get them ready first race back. The average trainers usually don't. So you have to know which ones can and which ones can't. At the best tracks with the best trainers and the better horses, e.g. Chad Brown or Todd Pletcher at Belmont or Saratoga in allowance or stakes competition, recency isn't an issue. You know their horses can win coming back after a layoff and often do.

Tom Brohamer came along several years after the publication of Mr. Scott's book and "relaxed" some of the rules that he considered either out-of-date or too strict. You can find those changes on pages 14 and 15 in this document:
http://www.sartinmethodology.com/lib...ure.Series.PDF

Hey Mick you forgot the most important thing and that's playing country music while capping lol. Seriously I want to point out that the most important thing is contender and paceline selections. If you are not getting the winner in your top 5 85-90% of the time then all the ancillary things that I choose to do are useless. And I will note that you don't have to do any of the extra things I do to be a consistent winner. RDSS is about as close to a black box a you will find. Use it properly and the profits are there. One thing I do religiously is keep a track model for each track I play, I find %med is a valuable tool for identifying if sprinters stretching out for the 1st time are likely to accomplish the feat. Sprinters at the top end of your %med range for the track and dist being played rarely do so. I also use it to downgrade horses who expend their energy to early or late to win at the tracks I play.
Tim
Tim

Mick: Thanks for the references. I've got Scott's book on the way, but had to check that it is the hard copy. Whew, it is! I just now ordered Quirin's book and also saved the Brohamer Lecture PDF on my computer. I also have Brohamer's book sitting on my desk, unread? So, I think I'm all set with material. All I need to do now is the actual work of learning the ideas. Details, details!

Tim: I hope you prefer "classic" country to "new country." IMHO the Hank Williams Jr. style is hard to beat. More to the matter at hand, your post above clearly sets the standard a profitable handicapper needs to meet. Thank you. I know what I need to do to get the job done.

Vic

Yep Vic you bet it's classic all the way.
Tim

Thanks for the compliment Vic but all I'm doing is passing on things I learned from Doc,Jim, Glen C, and the other wonderful teachers I was fortunate enough to meet and hang out with at various seminars.
Tim

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lt1 (Post 118927)

Hey Mick you forgot the most important thing and that's playing country music while capping lol.

Ahhh, yes. If the Lieutenant is awake, the country music is on. ;)