Belmont Turf Sprint FTL guidelines workshop
 

Hello Pace and Cap Friends


I have posted the past performances for a 7-furlong turf sprint
in the following post

If you can please watch the video

Here is a handy refresher screenshot of FTL'S contender/Paceline Guidelines

Here is a link to the Bill Lyster's FTL PDF

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11449

Attachment 46379

Here is video part 1

PP's
 

Horses

Attachment 46380


Attachment 46381


Attachment 46382

Attachment 46383

Horses
 

4 5 6 7

Attachment 46384

Attachment 46385

Attachment 46386

Attachment 46387

Horses
 

9 10 12 13

Attachment 46388

Attachment 46389

Attachment 46390

Attachment 46391

Bill, video not available. may I tried accessing too soon after your post.

What day is race from. I don't see any 7f turf races yesterday or today?

OOPs a bit premature. Not like its never happened before!!!

I will wait for your analysis.

Hi
 

Hi Bill

Yes tech difficulties It should be up now

can'twatch video
 

Bill, would love to see your ctrs, your selections and why, but this damn computer will not usually let me watch online videos, just get a green screen.
So can you give a written?
Thanks either way...

Very interesting information. Thank you for sharing. I like the format presented.

I am just about finished with my 5F turf sprint data at Del Mar that is based on the new widened course installed in 2014 to now. Less than 5% win at 90+ days off the lay-off for 7F at BEL? For DMR's turf sprint, it is just 15%, but the majority of them are from 6 month+ layoff.

Hi Bill

As always great job and look forward to video 2

Jeff

Part 2
 

In video #2 I discuss the race conditions and got horse by horse
picking contenders and pacelines.

How did you do in part 1?


If you like these BinderBox video race reviews

Please visit my youtube channel.
It would help me out very much if you could give the videos a
thumbs up Attachment 46392

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoj...able_polymer=1

Good stuff Bill!
I subscribed :)

Hey Richie:

It doesn't matter that the glass is half full or not; the key thing is ITS REFILLABLE!! More wine please.

I love it!!!!

:D:D

Part 3
 

So now we are to the nitty gritty

Let's review what we have done in part 1 and 2

We have read the conditions.
We have selected our contenders
For the horses that we have selected as contenders,
We then selected a paceline.

So now we can move on to the readouts

For those who are unsure, or could not view the videos

Here are my notes and contender/ paceline selections

This race is a $100,000 Stakes Race
It is a 7-furlong turf sprint
The conditions tell us that this race is for
3-year-old fillies eligible for the NY stallion series

Every horse is a 3-year-old filly

The morning line favorite is
#5 Mentality @ 1.8/1

Horse 1 Orchid Party

She has no turf sprint or turf races.
She has NO comparable races at today's distance and surface
Horse 1 is a non-contender

Horse 2 Wegetsdamunnys
She has no turf sprint or turf races.
She has NO comparable races at today's distance and surface
She is a non-contender

Horse 3 Aunt Babe
She has no turf sprint or turf races.
She has NO comparable races at today's distance and surface
She has a Morning line of 20/1
She is a noncontender

Horse 4 is Scratched

Horse 5 Mentality
She is a true win contender
She just ran a + race 29 days ago
Right on today's distance and surface
She has turf experience routing and sprinting


Horse 6 Pure Silver
She has no turf sprint or any turf races.
She has NO comparable races at today's distance and surface
She is a noncontender

Horse 7 Miss Mystique
She did run an even race 29 days ago
Right here at Belmont at 7 furlongs at today's surface.
She never was out of the race positionally but
She did beat half the field.
However, She never made a move.
Line 1 is unusable, It is not a + or (+)
She made no impact on the outcome of the race.
Horse 7 is not a win contender.


I would also like to stop here
When we read the conditions
we should be aware of the age restrictions of the
races in horses past performances

This race is restricted for 3-year-olds
Have any of today's horses run plus races against older horses?



Horse 8 Baby Boss
She has no turf sprint or turf races.
She has NO comparable races at today's distance and surface
She is a non-contender, her last line is a (+)
She did win a $100.000 stakes race in line 2
But that was on the dirt
She will probably be an early pace factor
but she is not a win contender

Horse 9 Dreams Are Pazable
at first glance I would say, Yes sure I can use line 3.
I can excuse line 1 because its the wrong distance ( route )
I can excuse line 2 because it's the wrong surface
I can use Line 3 Right? It's a usable line
It is a (+) only 58 days ago at today's distance and surface
but there is one more factor
Her Morning line is 30/1
She is a sure Early pace presence
But she is not a win contender

Horse 10, GoodBye Brockley
She Has a couple of things going for her
She has come back after an almost year-long layoff
and shows a win against older
She just ran a + paceline on the turf but at 8.5 furlongs
Is this a comparable distance?
Her adjusted phase 1 readouts 19 lengths (points) behind the favorite
Could we excuse the routes and go to line 3
Well here is the problem with that
Line 3 is an MSW race. Doc's guidelines for using
maiden pacelines against winners are to use them If
only if its the last line.
and only if the condition in today's race is for non-winners of 2 lifetime
I will have to mark horse 10
ITM only and not for win

Horse 11 is scratched

Horse 12 Kreese
She is solid all around
She has 3 consecutive turf sprint plus pacelines
Line 1 is a + race usable line because she finished 3rd
If we look closer she also ran the plus race against older

Horse 13 She's Delightful
She may be delightful but
She has no comparable surface races
She is off 156 days.
She is 20/1 ML

And that concludes the FTL guidelines portion of working the race.
FTL's guidelines are not a win bet selection method
But using FTL's guidelines will make final readout and wager decisions
much easier

So how did you do?

I will show you what I did.

Now with these contenders and pacelines


I will go to a minimum of two RDSS screens

1. The TPR screen
2. The RX screen

First the TPR screen

Attachment 46397

Look at that
I only have 2 win contenders
Horse 5, The Morning line favorite, She is going off at even money
Horse 12, She is going off at 6/1

I have marked horse 8 and 10 as ITM only or secondary contenders
They have positive factors but based on statistical research
by FTL, they are very low win candidates

The remaining horses are all non-contenders

You are free to just ignore this type and not even give them
a line,
I prefer this method of giving them a line but placing them out of the way
By selecting a line and categorizing all horses, I am less likely to miss
a horse in my final analysis.

I can also view the race from a total matchup perspective if all the horses have a line,

Things like who are the early horses? and will the closers be too far back to win? I am able to answer this from the phase 1 readouts.

Once I am finished with my TPR-Early/Late analysis

Now I go to the RX screen and make my wager decisions

Attachment 46398


This time FTL's guidelines did all the work for me

Normally I am just a 2 horse win better.
So for me, in this race, that meant win bets on horse 5 and 12 .

Horse 5 is even money so I bet 60% of my base bet on her to win
Horse 12 is at 6/1 I bet the remaining 40% on her to win

I also made a "place to be" bankroll builder place bet on horse 10

I included the 5 and 12 in a small pick 4 ticket

So there we have it

Here is the result chart

Attachment 46399

The 12 wins the race and pays 6.80/1

The 10 places and the 5 rounds out the trifecta


Thank you for participating in this race demo

I tried my best to present a race in a workshop environment.
I hope my presentation gave everybody an equal opportunity to
work the race without the results shown or known beforehand

I would like to do more of these workshops.

I need your feedback.

Thank you to those who have "liked"the videos with a thumbs up
on my youtube channel And for those who subscribed.

All comments about this and ideas for future workshops
are very much needed.


God Bless
Good Skill

Excellent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

You cease to amaze me with the work you put into the software. I really enjoyed the videos. excellent teaching tool for us visual folks and I did subscribe.

Bob

Bill,

This was an excellent layout of the Guidelines and your handicapping.

The only thing I would add is that, based on my own research into turf races using FTL guidelines, you can accept a horse as a contender making a positional move to the second call that only gets it to say 3.5 lengths back at the second call (assuming it did not finish 1-2-3 in the subject race). This kind of corresponds to the nature of turf racing.

I would note that my research only encompassed a couple of hundred races, so it would pale in comparison with FTL's in that regard. And as you said, he decided that dirt runners were more dependable.

Really enjoyed your analysis.

Bill

Great job and would like to see more of them

Jeff

Bill, nice win. Like I said, I can't watch the vids but enjoyed the written. Yes, I would like to see more.

Bill

Nice way also showing how you used RDSS, makes it easy for someone like me that gets confused by too many readouts

Jeff

Great YouTube site!
Thanks for sharing your work.

nice presentation Billv and are you going to dmr this year? let me know. i dont want to write rverge was here. lol

Good job getting down to two possibilities. Interesting that you ended up with a splitxcta or as I call it "the Bradshaw exacta"

Horses
 

Hi Chef

Yes I will be going to the live races with Brooks (dad)

I have never been there during the week except for Friday evenings and opening day.
I bet it will be beautiful as always

Last time I was there was the Breeders Cup, Ted had quite a job getting
Dr. Bill Z. and me out of there.

He was a real trooper

Charlie Dad says hello, He wishes he could come to Saratoga and say hello, He has to be back in Jersey in early August. It would be too hard for him to make two coast to coast trips

We went in partners in the race, and we boxed the 12 10 and 5
so we caught the Exacta,

Can't wait for Saratoga, It is gonna be a hoot here at P-C for Del-Toga

video
 

Hello again Bill
Hope you are still on the road to recovery! LOVED the video and the workups!
PLEASE DO MORE!!!
I have one question: When you said the 10 horse was 19 lengths behind,where did you calculate that from??
Thanks again
Papa John
Hey! I just watched an old cartoon MR. BILL "OH NO!"

Hope
 

Hello

Actually, I made a mistake, it was 21 points - lengths


Your question can best be answered if I refer to the old "Sartin Downs"
adjustment examples.

Almost every readout on RDSS is adjusted to a mystical normalized and equalized common racetrack, Originally named "Sartin Downs"

This means when you see horses ratings in RDSS that are adjusted, The numbers are not from Parx or Belmont or Santa Anita or Blue Ribbon Downs,
All lines are adjusted to a common track and then to a common distance

In this example, Horse 5's last race was run at Belmont at 7 furlongs
on the turf. What we see is horse 5's adjustment to a "par" for
7-furlong turf sprints at "Sartin Downs"

She earns an adjusted 184 TPR

Horse 10 last ran at Belmont, also on the turf, however, that was at 8.5 furlongs, on a track listed as good. The DTV was 23 (slow)

Now she has to be adjusted as if she ran a 7-furlong turf sprint
on an equalized, normalized track and surface - Sartin Downs

She gets only a 163 TPR and an even slower 161 from line 2.

So my question becomes is she really that much slower than horse 5
that is 21 points of TPR than the 5 horse?

I suspect no I base this on her 179 that she earned as a 2-year-old the last time she turf sprinted. (line 3 )

I placed her as an In The Money Only contender because I had no recent plus pacelines at a comparable distance. Yet I felt she just got a bad adjustment going route to sprint

Attachment 46430

Attachment 46431

ok cool, may b plan a sat or sun. thanks

Yes
 

Hello Chef

Yes I will be going to Del mar often
Especially the weekends

I'm used to going every weekend and sitting in the early bird simulcast room
but now I can't make the long walk. They have shuttles and handicap parking near the entrances but they open too late, cause they are for the live racing crowd.
The simulcast room fills up by then.