Preakness
 

Shocking.... No preakness predictions... Wonder why ? Could it be we don't believe what SPEC is telling us because everyone has annointed Barbaro as the triple crown winner ? I'll be the first to look foolish come 6:15 tomorrow.. My Top 3 BL/BL

1. Bernadini - Line 1
2. Sweet Northern Saint - Line 2
3. Brother Derek.... Line 2

Just was curious. How would Brother Derek compare to Bernadini when using Brother Derek's 3rd line back.

I have the same here and Im sure many others do. Tuff to go against Barba even though the figs arnt great. Should be fun though to watch brother and Berna. Not really a trip handicapper here but in all fairness the horse mad a hell of an effort. Also Berna with only three starts could perhaps? be the spoiler...maybe Best Doug

Line 3 is ever so slightly worse...

JMS,

You know I was looking at the same thing. I have a friend who normally sends over a two page analysis of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Cup. Been sending it over for the past two years and he has cashed in over 30K in IRS tickets on the Derby and Belmont Cup last year. Hit the Trifecta on this years Derby. His write up for the Preakness and I quote
"Barbaro - The next Triple Crown winner"
And that was it.....so I looked and looked and figured.
Barbaro beat both Brother Derek and Sweet Northern Saint by 10 and 13 lengths in the Derby. That would be enough to eliminate them for me. Now Bernardini looks intersting with that 135.1 last race at 8F. The closest line to compare it to is Barbaro's 6 back 8F Turf race at 135.9 I think Bernardini's best races are yet to come but at the end of the day I would PASS and have to take my $20 and put it on another race where the rewards for bucking the favorite are better.
Then again, it's a horse race, anything can happen......we'll see.
Good Luck
Charlie

Preakness Screen 1
 

I did this race using Energy and used 4 horses. I used 2 lines back for SNS; Brother Derek; and Barbaro. I used Bernardini's last line. No doubt to me this will be a good horse, but I think he needs more seasoning. I will supply 3 screen shots and explain why I think this. I did use the manual adjustment for this race because of the different distances.

Preakness Screen Shot 2
 

Here Bernardini looks good.

Preakness Screen Shot 3
 

Look at the Early Exdc

Preakness Conclusion
 

Incidentally SNS got the most positive adjustment with the manual adjustment. The thing that concerns me the most about Bernardini is the deficient second fraction. He is about one point less in F2 to both Brother Derek and Barbaro. I confirmed this by using KGEN. This is not to be confused with the Kinetic Generator. KGEN graphically portrays moves in the race. Bernardini takes a significant dip in the middle of the graph, while Barbaro and Brother Derek has a big upward swing or (bulge) as they call it.

If you put in Brother Derek's third line back things get worse for Bernardini as BD shows 0.00 deficiencies in both columns 1 and 2 in the EXDC Match-Up. If one is to play Bernardini on the basis of the other readouts make sure you get a price.

Speculator Preakness IMUG
 

Speculator does indeed like Bernardini. This might be the only screen where Bernardini shows some weakness. Bernardini comes out strong in F1 and gets overtaken in 2F by Brother Derek and Barbaro. Than comes back on the 3F+TOTAL PACE. It has been my experience that when a horse gets overtaken in 2F the last readout is less reliable.

Good observation! I must confess after testing something like 10 versions of SPEC for Guy the incremental screen was the one screen I never liked. It never seemed to jive with the Per screens etc at all, Gu and and myself had many a freindly argument over this, I never could get him to fix it. In the match up screen(#5) he dominates. However Ill just pass this race and watch:)

Preakness
 

As per my video from the beginners section
I will go with the "other" derby returners
The 5 and 7

Here is the Video


http://www.bindfold.com/images/Preakness.wmv

GS
Bill

[QUOTE=admin]As per my video from the beginners section
I will go with the "other" derby returners
The 5 and 7

Bill,

As usual Great Job. I noticed when you were selecting Barbaros line, his derby speed rating was much higher than what I am seeing in SPECPA for Barbaro....

preakness
 

I think the tables will turn around today.Barbaro will bounce.Where did that race come from. Sweetnorthernsaint will run back to the haw race he ran.He got a pretty bad trip in the derby also.He was making a big move up the rail and had to check pretty bad .Desormeaux is not one of my favorite jockeys but when there is big money involved he gives a pretty good ride.I wish john velasquez was on him i would have more confidence in my bet.Believe me this is a serious horse.

I am out of practice but like Brother to hold off Sweet in a 2 horse race. I'm thinking BERN might bounce some off the great effort and going longer. I have no problem going against BARBARO but I also went against him 2 weeks ago. I sometimes can be stubborn. Brother was all over the SPEC Pre-race analysis having 4 of the first 5 sorted by TE. Bern has 1 and 6 but both were 8F. He may turn out to be the next Housebuster but I'm betting again him at long distances.

Ok Let me wager capp this race, #6 Barbaro did the dance last time so he gets the nodd, # 8 Bernardini I will use in my box and under, # 7 Sweetnorthernsaint had some trouble in last and again using in my box and under, # 1 Like now may be the speed and again I will include in my box and under in the tri. Brother Derek just needs drugs. So 6/871 & 871/6/871

An ugly scene
 

I bet Bernidini to win. Had to at 12/1, but not fun way to a race how sad but thats the ugly reality of this sport.

Too bad
 

what can you say

This is a very hard thing that we do then bad things like this happen

Well to all the great work those of you who went with # 8
Good Skill

congratulations
Bernardini
Your the champ for the Preakness:)

Although, unlike the Kentucky Derby here I boxed both the tri & exacta with the numbers in my post, and did not lose cash in the race, I really think it would have been better had Barbaro sustained a flesh wound in the gate when he broke through the first time making a scratch possible. The best days are when we cash, and everyone returns unhurt, safe, and sound.

Barbaro.. You are in my prayers tonight big fella...

Barbaro.. You are in my prayers tonight big fella...

My prayers also go out to everone involved. Edgar Prado did a fantastic job keeping Barbaro on his feet.