Oaklawn Park profile
 

After four days of racing at Oaklawn Park, I've noticed something unusual - early speed is fading down the stretch. There have been a total of 36 races, 20 sprints and 16 routes, with only 5 gate-to-wire winners and just 7 winners that were on the lead at the second call. Visually, the rail seems to be dead and I've watched as frontrunners, often unpressured, fade in the last sixteenth.

Last year I did rather well playing Es and EPs. This year, early in the meet, I've been watching more than playing, making only modest "entertainment" bets, and have cashed one ticket. The track seems to be much more tiring. Perhaps that will change as the meet progresses but for now, my bets will only be on paper.

Hi Mick,So far I've played 1 5,5f,8 6f races,5 8f races,and 5 8,5f races. I have noticed that based on my capping vdc and turn time are the predominate factors so far and my top 3 ep and lp ranked horses have fared equally well. Jimmy always said this is one tough track with horses coming from all parts of the country and tracks rated at varying tier levels. Makes capping a lot of fun with big rewards if you are right.
Tim

Sounds like HE should be a killer especially if in the top TPR or Tot Energy.
Good skill,
Mitchman

No surprise that you gentlemen are all over it. This is from my modest little spreadsheet for the Top 4:

VDC - 77%
TT - 73%
HID - 73%

Also, TS+F3 (Supplementary Factor) - 73%
(The header is mislabeled on the spreadsheet as TP+F3.) Given the above percentages, this one is no surprise. It's True Speed or Adjusted Speed Rating plus extra weight for the third fraction. (Page 29 of the Glossary.)

Profit Line and Prime Power are both 73%, too. I added a column for Prime Power and am tracking it independently.

My Oaklawn Model
 

Hi All

Here is my OP model

Not too many races. I only save races I actually work so I only have
10 routes and 7 sprints

Profile Sprints
Med %
High 71.7
Low 67.6
AVE 69.25
ESP E-4 P-2 SP-2 S-1
RS E6 E5 P5 P2 S5 S2 S1

So far some good rankings for sprints are

SC POR 71%
VDC 57%
TE POR 57%
F2 POR 57%
TS POR 57%
TT 57%
FW 57 %
E/EP 57%
CBL F1 57%
Running Positions
Call 1 57%
Call 2 57%
Stretch 71%
Final 71%
ML odds 57%

Profile for routes

Med %
High 68.1
Low 66.7
Ave. 67.6

ESP E-0 P-0 SP-4 S-5 L-1
RS E7(4) E6 P5 P5 P2 P1 S2


Top Percentages Routes

CSR 80%
Profit Line 90%
CR+ 90%
RX1 80%
RX2 80%
RX3 80%
ML odds 90%
APV 70%
BLBL 80%

VDC 80%
Prim 80%
Supp 90%
POH TE 80%
POH F2 80%
POH SC 80%
POH F3 80%

POR F2 80%

EPR 70%
LPR 80%
TPR 80%
TT 80%
HID 80%
FW 80%
FX 90%

Percept 80%
L/EP 80%

CBL
FIN 80%
TP+TS 80%

Fractals
Frac E 90 %
Frac L 90%
Frac N 80%

Running Pos.
Stretch 80%
Fin 90%

Here is my Sprint and Route models file

Attachment 45239

Blessings
Bill

oaklawn park
 

oaklawn has always been a sustained pace track favoring outside closers despite the short stretch for the most part. you may find a few races where ep horses win but the closers will always prevail. this applies only to fast tracks period,not wf ,gd, my, or sly.
my rule of thumb is this: look at some previous full chart race results , see where the winner was at the 1st call, not the 2nd call, then go back to your pacelines and look for a similar or comparable running line from whence the winner came and use that line in your program and then see where your winners are coming from. don't go into a race where you already predetermined where your winner is coming from.
i cut my teeth with sartin 30 years ago using Synergism II. that's how i learned to pick pacelines and that's why i know oaklawn is a sustained pace track. track has not changed in 30 years.later,omar.

That looks like a powerful model for routes.
Thanks both of you for sharing.

updates
 

After many dark days due to a winter storm
OP was back on Saturday
Here is a update RDSS model

Track is still running towards the late side

Routes

Attachment 45268

Sprints

Attachment 45269

I'm having trouble uploading the spreadsheet

I will asap

Bless
Bill

Updated E/L data
 

I have enough races so I can start to make a non maiden E/L Sprint and Route
Profile for OP Jan 12-Jan26

Sprints

Attachment 45271

Routes

Attachment 45270

Updated Model
 

Here is my 2018 Oaklawn Park Model
Jan 12-Jan. 26
Sprints and Routes are on separate tabs

Attachment 45273


Bless
Bill

Thank you, Bill. The ESP for routes is amazing. That is good to know.

Sprints
 

Hi Mick. Thanks yes so far I'm having a good meet at OP
Saturday was very muddy, so I passed the races, The combination of the off track and lots of horses coming off long layoffs. said so.

Yesterday was listed as "good" I remember reading in one of the follow ups
that a drying out track favors a little less early energy than the model
says.

Race 7 was a nice example.

Horse 10 did not show much, on the RX3 screen at least being in the top 4 But I made a correct call based on the readouts .
#10 Big Red Seven rated well on profit line (3)
All the Sup. and POR readouts, Total energy and VDC (2) and LPR (2)

Attachment 45284

So I went to the TPR screen,

Attachment 45282

Horse 10 is just slightly on the early side , Against all the other Early energy
horses, Horse 10 is the counter energy.
I also like P5 horses with good LPR ratings

Horse 10 won and paid $37.00 I welcomed it very much
As I got knocked out in the GP Jackpot pick 6 in the 3rd leg
I only went to deep on that leg my 4 horse finished 2nd'
Ticket cost me $57
It's always the 4 horse


Race 7 winner #10 Big Red

I used line 3 I excused line 1 - and line 2 was too early and on the TP Poly

Attachment 45283

Nice call on that 10 & great price. BIG CONGRATS!!!!


Knowledge of how a track acts to the weather is very important to those playing only 1 or 2 tracks. E.g. Years ago Mth. use to get very fast when wet & sloppy. When drying out it got very slow & muddy before returning to fast.


Each track has its own nuances & it pays to know your favorite track.
Good analysis,
Mitch44

Great score, Bill. And I always enjoy reading your analyses.

Today 2/2, seems like it may be day worth studying a little more in depth. Early speed / long prices carried the day... might check on what closers made up any ground for future dates

Bill V. - Thanks
 

Bill V. - Much appreciated, as I am playing Oaklawn over the weekend, and it looks like a tough track to play.

Happy Punting,
Jon

Update
 

Here is my updated OP Profile Model

Attachment 45316


I added some AVERAGE , MAX and MIN data to the sprint data
Located under the Percentages Info

I will finish that and do the Routes on the next Update

Bless

Bill