Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - Travers Stakes

Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up (http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php)

- Races of Interest (http://paceandcap.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=76)

- - Travers Stakes - 2017 (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11284)

Travers Stakes - 2017

Seems like a very contentious race. On the other hand, if we can eliminate a few of the Morning Line horses from the Win, our profit potential increases!

Attachment 44066

I want to wait until tomorrow to reassess this Rx line, when the ProfitLine ranks will be available (for inclusion in the Rx3 line score). Right now however, Rx2 (which uses CR+ enhanced Class rating as the Power Number in the Rx line score), eliminates from Top 4 and ties two of the Morning Line Favourites - always a good thing!

No matter which paceline you use for any of the demoted Secondary horses (i.e. not for Win), they rank no better than 6th.

The ranks of the Primary horses may jump around a bit when tomorrow's ProfitLine is available for this Travers Day card, but since a few people have asked - here's what comes up so far. I will be zeroing in more particularly with the tote analysis as the race approaches.

Still, a very contentious race!

Attachment 44075

.

Thank You, Ted for posting the Travers

Here is my first look.
Look at those Late Pace Ratings !!!!
so wild numbers for sure :)

I will update if needed as the day goes

Good Skill
Bill (BVD)

Attachment 44074

After my first pass thru I have 6-3-5-1-10-7 as my contenders.
Tim

Contenders 1,3,4,7

3,1
Pook

What a fantastic field! Whose going to take the lead and what kind of early pace are they going to carve out? Is someone going to wire the field? The obvious horse who has pressed and led early is #7 Always Dreaming. He got the lead in the recent Jim Dandy at 9f at today's track only to fade late. But this was his first race in 70 days and Pletcher probably didn't have him cranked up all the way. There appears to be 3 horses that will press this leader: #3 West Coast, #10 Irap and #12 Fayeq. My feeling is that the winner will come from this group.

1-3-5-6-9

ex 3/6/9-1/3/5/6/9

GL!

All three triple crown winners in same race

It has been a while since we had a championship race where all the winners of the Triple Crown races are in the same race. Fantastic Field!!!

Always Dreaming - Kentucky Derby Winner
Cloud Computing - Preakness Stakes Winner
Tapwrit- Belmont Stakes Winner

Always Dreaming comes off a clunker in his last race.. Today's race seems like a race where Pletcher will send this one early to prep for the BC Classic at Del Mar. I don't believe Always Dreaming was in top form when Cloud Computing won the Preakness.
Tapwrit just won the marathon -Belmont Stakes- new form cycle in today's race

I'm more interested in Omar's pick from this year's Kentucky Derby- McCraken. This horse had me puzzled after the running of the Kentucky Derby as did Tapwrit. Later I see that Pletcher saved Tapwrit for the Belmont stakes.

McCraken ran sustained two races back and race early when he lost to Girvin in the last race. IMHO, McCraken is primed for today's race- the Travers Stakes.

Good Skills

Attachment 44085

I went with Girvin, Mccraken Always Dreaming.

I believe that the 3YO picture will be further muddied after today. Lots of price potential in this race. Good luck!

Code:

                SAR0826 11 10.0 D G1 3   $1,250,000 5:44PM



                      BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (VAL4)



HIDE#  PNcNAME LdT  SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS   TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE



    4   9 MCCRA1    95    5  23.0     EVEN   MTH 9.0D 12/1   27   3



    2   4 TAPWR4    92    8  17.3      5-2   TAM 8.5D  7/2   77   3



    1   3 WEST 2    92    8  16.5      3-1   BEL 8.5D  4/1   42   3



    3   7 ALWAY4    91    7  15.5   *  7-2   GP  9.0D  6/1   28   3



    6  11 GUNNE1    83    7  15.5   *  7-2   GP  8.5D 20/1   20   3



    5  10 IRAP 1    90    7  13.3      4-1   IND 8.5D  8/1   42   3







                     SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS

                  ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐          │    PRIM     │  SUPP   │

                  │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│          │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│F│E│T│T│

┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│X│N│S│P│

│#│PNcNAME LdT│ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│ │T│ │P│

├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤

│1│ 3 WEST 2  │ 92│ 8│2│4│25│3│15│3││1│6│6││S/P│ 1.3││1│6│2│6│6│3│1│3│1│4│2│5│

│2│ 4 TAPWR4  │ 92│ 8│3│2│24│2│14│2││2│2│5││PRE│    ││2│5│3│3│4│3│4│2│4│3│3│2│

│3│ 7 ALWAY4  │ 91│ 7│6│3│26│4│15│3││4│3│4││SUS│ 2.4││4│4│4│5│5│2│2│4│2│2│4│3│

│4│ 9 MCCRA1  │ 95│ 5│1│1│13│1│ 7│1││3│1│1││SUS│ 0.7││3│2│1│1│2│1│3│1│3│1│1│1│

│5│10 IRAP 1  │ 90│ 7│4│5│27│5│24│4││5│4│3││SUS│ 3.2││5│3│5│4│3│2│5│5│5│5│5│4│

│6│11 GUNNE1  │ 83│ 7│5│6│26│4│30│5││6│5│2││LAT│ 7.0││6│1│6│2│1│4│6│6│6│6│6│6│

└─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘

Quote:

Originally Posted by lone speed (Post 111458)

Agreed,

Mccraken ran way to good to loose the Haskell by a nose. It's my belief he reverses the tandem on girvin today. Irap is the horse that seems to be improving race after race. Westcoast could get a piece.

9-10-6-3

Good skills all,

Paul link
Los Angeles,Ca

I will go with the 6 and 9

This star-studded affair is going to be fun to watch. The Haskell had some heat up front that set up for the 6 & 9. I don’t think today will set up like that. The 7 may be able to take it up front if it improves off the Jim Dandy tune up. I’m, however, betting he doesn’t.

I’m looking OTE that runs close to the pace. Kind of a soft pace too

When I ran through the horses, the 12 hit me with the running position and fractions he has ran against. Lightly raced and has won here already. Don’t like the outside post but lack of E inside and the long run to the turn may help. The ML 30 is something that I (often to my detriment) am willing to take with a grain of salt.

If the 1 runs the Preakness line it could win but if it doesn’t improve off last it’s in the same boat as the 7.

The 3 looks fast and seems to run well regardless of what which coast it runs on or in between. Position wise is a little farther back but just a few lengths off.

Go with 3 & 12

Chasing odds with the 12 but take it up and down the field?

Well that horse didn't come all this way for nothing!

Did the Stewards put up the inquiry sign to give 12 time to get in?

11 horse should have flat out been taken down!

Congratulations to all who picked - and bet - on #3 West Coast! He showed lots of guts.

I hit the Win :), lost the Exacta :(. Who was that masked horse #11 ...?

Attachment 44087

SMITH AND Bob Baffert shine again in NY

Way to go everybody, the winner #3 is solid

Well done guys. Only 2 others besides myself had the 3 in their top 2 over at the RX forum.
Tim