PRX 7th - 4/11/17
 

Horses 1, 2 and 3
 

#1
Attachment 43222

#2
Attachment 43223

#3
Attachment 43224

Horses 4, 5 and 6
 

#4
Attachment 43225

#5
Attachment 43226

#6
Attachment 43227

Horses 7, 8 and 9
 

#7
Attachment 43228

#8
Attachment 43229

#9
Attachment 43230

My look
 

Top 5 TPR last line ( step1 0
4,7,3,5,1
Fulcrum POR EPR 93.5 (horse 7)

Notes

Horse 1 , House Of Friends .Sustained Line 2 is a CL7500N2-L win line
The horse was claimed in that race, Line 1 was a 0 races against allowance
horses and first race after a 6 week layoff, Will need a little better EPR
with a today's 93.5 fulcrum Line 3 is 100 days ago so that is a issue

Horse 2 Moneyman. .Sustained. Line 1 "0" is against CL20N3-L and at 7 furlongs
Line 2 is a + paceline but against a slow DTV . current form is okay, He come right back in 9 days

Horse 3. More Data EP ( when in form) Line 1 is a win line @ CL7500N2-L
moves up to CL12.5 Looks to be hjust behind the the fulcrum

Horse 4. The Schwarm. EarlyPresser Has been Routing at Aqu inner
Line 1 is a (+) after a layoff I will rate of line 1 and see how the match up of the LPRs
stack up .

Horse 5 Run Dixie Run, Presser . Another recent router looking at the fucrum
I will not give this one a line

Horse 6 Smart and Tough. Early Been off for 142 days Form is unknown
I only have 1 other layoff line to rate ( line 9) but that was a slow pace turf line

Horse 7 Windcries Early , Fulcrum horse I see no reason to expect anything different than what it did in its win in this line?
This is only a 3 year old .He could bounce . Line 1 is against CL7500N2-L

Horse 8 Bestbandever Sustained Line 1 is a 2 move (+) but the TPR and LPR
are weak Nothing else to se here

Horse 9. Portent Early Popular horse has been claimed in last two races
The best + line in that form cycle is race 3 but early sticks and falling total energy
have me worried

Lets see how the 4 is bet

I probably will pass this one

Attachment 43231

A brain teaser for sure. As Jeebs would say a slobber-knocker or in other words a real slobber-fest. ha ha ha
Mitch44

Another playable race.
Pacelines: Default setting
7-3-4 are my win contenders in order.
will pass if the 7 goes off at less than 5/2; otherwise I would bet the two that are the best prices.
In races like this when I get it down to three main contenders I usually end up passing because of the odds being to low to make make a decent profit.
I prefer races where I get two main contenders with decent odds.
Rmath

Pacelines
 

#1 - Line 2/Sustained Presser. I excused Line 1 due to the intense class demands (TE PoR) it faced last time out. Line 2 is a + win at the $7.5k n2L level. This stands to reason that the $12.5k will be an easier spotting.

#2 - Line 2/Sustained. Line 1 was a 0 race vs. a tougher TE PoR ($20k n3L). I found no reason not to use its + race from the 2nd line in today's class.

#3 - Line 6/Early. Even though Line 1 is a + win line in the $7.5k n2L condition, it had a weak perceptor rank. I used the + line to open the window to choose the top perceptor ranked Line 6. Why is this important? Because this is an early runner who shows an ability to pass horses or sit off the pace. 1st off the claim this afternoon.

#4 - Line 8/Early Presser. Horse has a variety of +/(+) outings going long. I excused its last comparable line (Line 4) due to the extreme TE PoR. I admittedly hate going down towards the bottom of the PPs to find a usable line, but its run style and energy distribution would seem to indicate that this particular line best reflects its ability.

#5 - Line 5/Sustained Presser. Line 5 is its most recent comparable line. While its perceptor is slightly worse than Line 7, it has a higher TPR and the horse was up close.

#6 - No Line/Questionable sprint back form. Its sprint races are practically all(+) pop and stop affairs. Tough read for me off a November layoff. I would let this one beat me.

#7 - Line 1/Early. Without question, this is the best line to use. Encouraging is the quick turnaround and rise to $12.5k off the claim.

#8 - Line 1/Sustained. Appears to be a Non-contender here. Poor sprint record.

#9 - Line 3/Early. A pair of (+) races followed by the near miss. Feast or famine E type.

This race is a "Pook Special" IMO - Early or Fold?

Velocity/RS analysis
 

Attachment 43235

Attachment 43236

#7 and #9 are virtually matching early runners based on my line selections. The #3 should be sitting right off, while #4 may struggle to stick close to the pace in this match-up. #3 shows a massive middle move from F1 to F2, passing horses between calls. None of the Sustained/Sustained Presser style runners can seemingly string together strong 2nd and 3rd fractions, which makes me leery of them.

Bottom Line
 

Attachment 43237

I tend to favor the Early/Early Pressers in this particular match-up. #4 comes up as the top tier on BL/BL based on my line selections, but could be underlaid given the connections. My wagering preferences would be #3 and #7, both of which seem to have some upside in both ability and price potential.

Good luck and skill to all involved here.

LOL! It is certainly a matching race for me. Three early horses that seem pretty close. Can't say that one is dominant. So looking for the fold. Of the rest I only see 4 and 5 as those that have been competitive against the anticipated pace.
4 and 5
Will have to see about odds.

Pook

Here we go again. My contenders are 7-4-3-5-1
#1 L1 Uncoupled entry with #3. Drops in class. Claimed 2 back
#3 L1 Won last uncoupled entry with #1 Claimed last. Looks like ntl by 2c.
#4 L4 Drops goes route to sprint 2-8@dist. Trainer 7% this move
#5 L1 Another dropping& going route to sprint 1-5 @dist. Trainer 0-5 this move.
#7 L1 NTL type goes up after big win 8 days ago 3rd fraction a little weak.
Like Rich right now I have 7-4-3 with 5 &1 under only. Will wait for late odds before deciding if play or pass.
Tim G

Early
 

Early betting is heavy on the 7

7Th at Park on 11 April 17, 6F Dirt
#1 L 1
#2 L Best races are run S which left lines that left lines 3 @ 5.5 or 5 @ 8.3 F ,chose L 5 as I would rather extract than project.
#3 L 3
#4 L 5
#5 L 7
#6 L 3 appears to be another NTL but I think he needs just the right set-up, few sprint lines, can rate, didn’t like the -20 variant for L2 therefore used L 3
#7 L 4 didn’t like the variant for L 1 -20 as compared to rest so used L 4, a definite NTL who has a bad LPR, may hang around for a show.
#8 L 3 drops to lowest class ever, sparingly raced recently a concern on soundness here
#9 L 5 two WF tracks so went back to line 5
Contenders: 6-2-8-4-7
Order: 6-4-8-7-2
Mitch44

I'll pass although ex prices aren't bad.

I passed. Odds to low at 1 min.to post.
A better opportunity will show up later.
Rmath

Res 3-4-5-8 ex $44.20 $1 tri 125.

Hey it looks like Jeebs pulled it off. Nice one. It was a race with early tension with 6 making it difficult for the 7. It set up for OTE which the top three horses were. I didn't buy the 3's poly line where he showed success against the projected. Maybe I should have. That was the only thing in the way of the 4,5.

Pook

Another nice race Jeebs. As the chart shows the race was decided early with OTE's taking over by the half. The deep closer was too far out of it.

Pook

CONGRATS JEEBS!!!!

Didn't feel good about this one once started doing it. I thought it would run other than early.
Mitch44

Not complaining
 

The dynamic of the race changed when #7 missed the break. #3 didn't rush up, passed horses, looked #4 in the eye and then proceeded to throw that massive turn time to win by daylight.

With the odds on #7, I dutched #3 and #4 (my top tiers). 3-1 was stingy, but you can't help what they pay sometimes.

Nice call Jeebs
Tim G

For The Lead’s Guidelines:

No entry has a ML of 20/1 or higher, so all remain in
#6 does not have a race in the last 90 days, so it is out

#1 – line 2, c-7,500 NW2L, excuse line 1 as class was too high
#2 - line 2, 12,500 NW3L, excuse line 1 as class was too high
#3 – line 1, c-7,500 NW2L
#4 – NO LINE, all races in the last 90 days are route races
#5 - NO LINE, all races in the last 90 days are route races
#6 – NO LINE, off 149 days
#7 - line 1, c-7,500 NW2L
#8 – NO LINE, last line is the only line in the last 90 days and is not a “+” or a “(+)” line
#9 - line 1, c-7,500 NW3L
A COUPLE OF NOTES:
1 – I have 5 horses with lines, NOT because 5 are required, but because it just worked out that way.
2 – In reality, I only consider that there are 4 contenders. I would not consider the #9 horse at 2 for 37 lifetime a legitimate contender to win.

So, this is what is what is left:
#1 – line 2, c-7,500 NW2L, A WIN
#2 - line 2, 12,500 NW3L
#3 – line 1, c-7,500 NW2L, A WIN
#7 - line 1, c-7,500 NW2L, A WIN
#9 - line 1, c-7,500 NW3L
Again, I would not consider the #9 horse, at 2 for 37 lifetime, a legitimate contender to win.

As before, I have no idea how the numbers work out and only those who might be interested in seeing how they work out can use the horses and lines I used just for fun.

JEEBS said it right when he noted that the complexion of the race was changed when the #7 failed to break with the rest of the field.

Funny you post this, because I was going to work the race off your guidelines to see how the numbers cooked up. When I get the chance, I'll post them.

I also was surprised the 6 up there fighting for the lead. While it can run early and has speed its a S horse . In its only two sprints it did the same thing. You would think the trainer or jock would place the horse in the second flight and come from off the pace with so much speed in here. I knew after watching the first FR he was done for.

Your right Jeebs with the 7 breaking poorly it changed the whole race. I didn't believe the 3 could repeat its last race which was at 5.5F and already decelerating plus having to go another 1/2 F while chasing the #7. All of which set it up for a closer.

Onward and upward.
Mitch44

Thank You
 

well done Jeebs
Nice work as always :)

Too bad about the 7 , Funny I was just listening to a Brohamer tape
and he mentioned " don't let what if's effect you"
Looking at the PP's who could say " what if the 7 breaks poorly"
We have to look at the full picture and select a line that BEST represents
what the horse can do in today's match up.

I really went back and forth between the 7 and 3. When I saw the early money on the 7 I should have jumped to the 3. The jump from CL7500 to CL12.5 was an issue. The 3 did it alas I only bet 1 horse I went just w/p on the
4

Attachment 43241

FTL's guidelines in action
 

FTL,

I ran the race with your paceline guidelines. The F1 and SC ratings of #7 and #9 make the Early shape a virtual dead heat before #9 fades severely in F3. #3 is still up close at F1 and is 3rd at SC while throwing down a respectable F3.

Attachment 43243

#7 and #3 comprise the top tier slots on BL/BL with the slight tilt to #7 in this particular match-up. For those using the Rx on the Beta trial, both #3 and #7 are tied with 2-1 fair odds based on the respective Rx formulae.

Attachment 43244

If you are a two-horse bettor and bet the top 2 runners using the guidelines, you walk away a winner by virtue of #3's "walk in the Parx" dominance.

There are many ways to skin a cat... :) Thanks for sharing your insight, sir!

Good and smart bet Bill, its a plus. Congrats!
Mitch44

Y'all are writing about the bad break of the 7 as compromising and affecting the complexion of the race. Really? Look at it again. The 7 ran the same way as last time. It was the speed of the other two early horses 6 and 9 that killed his chances. An early speed matchup if ever there was one that set up for off the pace. IMO there was nothing of note or unusual in the running.

Just sayin'
Pook

Disagree
 

Hi Pook

The 7 might have form issues, This was the only 3 year old in the race
3 year olds are still developing and can have wild variations in race ability.

In race 1 against 7500 claimers N2-L 8 days ago it broke last
Here is the the thing, it was a fresh horse after a 30 day layoff
against a slower POR Also what changed from line 2 to line 1?
In every other race except line 8 it broke well. Yet now in two races in a row He breaks last !

Lets look at horse 6 , - forget horse 9 Its a early but even the connections know it' only hope is to wire a slow field

But lets look at horse 6 He is a 5 year old gelding This is a fully developed horse, Since its been off 149 days , We have to ask "is this the same horse "
Well lets not use the last line, since this is the race that put it into the barn
look at the second line, Against CL20000 horses it broke just fine and
took the lead The POR in this race was 170 In horse 7's win the POR was only 168

What I'm saying is the 7 went from 15000 to 7500 and was claimed
but why the big drop from line 2 to 1? and did the line 1 race take too much out of him and was eight days rest enough to heal ?

I have not seen a replay yet and I did not watch the race
But even the chart says all broke well except the 7

I don't think this was a case of velocity match up , I think the 7 was
not right

Thanks
Bill

wp
 

thanks Mitch

Hi Bill,

Thanks for your well thought out response. And I don't mean to belabour this but you really don't think it could be velocity based? What you wrote about above is probably true but I looked at it from raw numbers only. The 7 was compromised when he found himself 1 1/2 lengths back of a 44.9 half. None of the early horses had ever run that fast but because of the intensity set themselves up for failure. All three ran last. I think even if the 7 had none of the issues you mention above he couldn't have succeeded against 44.9. I just thought the matchup worked out perfectly.

Pook