Saturday Night Turfway Park Stakes - 3/4/17 - Race 6
 

Looking through races having my coffee with my honey and came upon this race tonight at Turfway Park. The John Battaglia Stakes for 3 year olds going 8.5f on their Polytrack.

All comments, etc are welcome, feel free to chime in :)

First 2 screenshots are the entries and tandem finishes.

These next 3 screenshots are taken all from the last line
1) Original lines
2) TPR
3) Segments

The field

horses 6-10

The 11-13

3 screens with my lines
1) Pace of Race = P.O.R.
2) T.P.R. including V/DC
3) Segments - showing some Early/O.T.E. matchups and finishes

No Offense Intended...
 

I don't bet this kind of race because I am lousy at them. I am primarily a Matcher and I don't know that there is enough evidence about each runner to make an educated decision.
Richie explained how "The Hat" recommended these races be handicapped in the Hat Check blog. You match the sprinters and take the best and then throw him in with the routers. For me this is gambling because I am crappy at projecting improvement in these youngsters. You want a horse with some speed to at least press the pace but you risk the front end going too fast early and then some slow S horse runs by at the end. You have to add the different surfaces to the equation and I frankly, get overwhelmed. i realize the Turf is an acceptable surface in a Poly race and vice versa but early 3 yo turf races tend to be as much learning experiences as valid indications of future proficiency.

But it will be a fun race to watch none the less.

Update: # 10 & #13 have scratched.
Mitch44

Gaaaaing Group
 

Hello Rich

The 7 and 1 will be Gaaaaaaing Ground !!!

Phase 1 and Thoromation

Attachment 42611

Richie P, thanks for posting the race.

I see lots of E. FPLR from sprinters 3 & 8 who both won up front @ 22.5 – 45
Other E are the 5 (not E last race), 4, 10, 11, see 13 getting caught up in the E

Looking OTE

Assume the sprinters will slow down a little, the 5 ran a route @ 22.9 – 46.3 2 races back and will use that as projected pace. The OTE’s are mostly routers who don’t show lines that fast.

Looking at position, I like the 9 who ran in 5th position or later in sprints and closed against fast pace but ran out of room. Looking for a faster pace today than last out when won in the route. Long shot at ml 20/1?…class issues for sure

The 12 running 6th-5th last out looks good…Again, MS 19…but it is Turfway

The 1 has some class and is certainly OTE. But last 3 races have been against 24’s which is slower than projected today & slower than lines of other horses…So I guess questions are how interchangeable are T and P lines and what about class…

Just saw 10 & 13 scr but I don’t think it changes my look

Maybe bet the 9 to place

Turfway
 

One thing I have learned about poly is you have to have some stamina besides position to win.

Think I will box an exacta 2-4-8

Win bets on the 2 -4 (8 should be the chalk)

Bob

Well a very tough race with the main speed scratching. However there is still plenty of speed in here as several sprinters are attempting to stretch out. They rate so who really knows. Then we have several horses whose last race was their best and are moving up in class. Hell even their trainers don't know what they have so why not go for it and see if you have a Derby horse.

I'll take a stand against all of them, if they beat me, oh well. Not a serious betting race but what the hell is a few bucks. Too many horses for a good write up with line picks etc. Those that always pick the last line have a shot in here as 3 yr. olds should be on the improve with their last being best.

My contenders are 1-7-12-9-8 and order
The # 1 will probably be bet down so I figure 7-12-9 should go off at a good price, small win bet and small ex. bet 1 with 7-12-9

Mitch44

After consulting my dart board I'll go with 1-8-7-12-2 as the contenders and go with 1 & 8 wp bets and $1 ex box 1-7-8-12. Hey Mitch what did you consult with your monkey tonight?
Tim

Yes Tim I did, he's eating an extra banana for a snack at this time. He's a happy camper.
Ha ha ha ha

I was surprised they didn't bet the # 1 down. I guess he didn't like the poly and prefers turf. And more surprised they bet the # 7 down. Its hard to fool the public but I thought the 7 might pay something. It is what it is.
Mitch44

Congrats to Bill and you on the 7. I had a good day hitting the Gotham,Palm Beach and FOY
Tim

Thanks Richie
 

lots of nice reflections of doing a night time race with you at Turfway.

Thanks Tim, Good for you hitting the big races yesterday, I hit the Gotham
I did not look at GP
Its funny I will bet a race from GP online, but for some reason when I am
watching feeds from GP at Del Mar Surfside OTB, I just get bad vibes about
betting GP, , Maybe its the colors they use on the monitors I look at races from GP and I just don't like it

Strange I do well there but I avoid it

Hi Bill. GP is not one of my favorites either and only play it when there is nothing else that looks good or some big races like yesterday. Those turf runups are crazy and 7.5 on the turf are nuts..
Tim

OK the 10,13 scratched.

The #7 crushes the field running O.T.E. hammered down from 8/1ml paying $6.80 for the win.
The odds reversed on the 1 and 7 with the 7 going off a price, read Lostandwon's excellent observation about the 1 running against slower than todays first call should be leaving him in Mars.

Bill nails the win, Mitch gets the win, Tim hits place bet on the #8 and hits the exacta and YES even the "Monkey" gets into the action :D:D

Mark makes excellent decision to pass when there is no clear cut plan and the "Raceman" gets in the mix!

A big thank you to everyone for taking the time to participate. :)

Lets do it again soon!

Can not tell a lie...
 

I ended up betting the #8 win/place evenly! Had a betting interest in the race which made it that much more enjoyable to watch and fortunately painless although inside the 1/8 pole I was a bit anxious. In RDSS, the #7 just didn't look that good and I was somewhat shocked at his off odds and the way he dominated the field. He just exploded down the stretch against modest early fractions.
These Turfway 3 yos never seem to do much in the Derby but that POWER MOVE 7th to 1st, 2c - sc, will certainly look good in his next start.