Churchill Today in the slop/ Energy!
 

Gonna post readouts for 4 sprint races there today - 4-8-9-10

REALLY struggling getting a grasp on this software. Losing battle so far and I have worked a LOT of races. I don't take failure well man and I am definitely failing big time.

So I am going with a gut instinct that has been gnawing inside me for 3 days now. The readouts today reflect this. After this there is nowhere else to go to be honest.

I am fighting hard but getting knocked the **** out so far :eek:

gonna wait til scratches are in - bout an hour

Churchill
 

Race 4

Churchill
 

Race 8

Churchill
 

Race 9

Churchill
 

Race 10

Churchill Race #2
 

Richie, let me try this race. Left the morning-line favorite in. The Energy Generator.

Raw and Automatic
 

Raw and Automatic screen

Churchill Race 2
 

It does variegate early. Looking at other read-outs I am inclined to dis-agree.

Churchill Race 2
 

Although 0.00 MUV Master Barry is somewhat deficient in other rankings. This is my reasoning for looking at other horses.

Churchill Race 2
 

The Exdc Match-Up. Master Barry has 0.00 deficiencies in 2 columns. (always dangerous), also is the energizer. I would use Master Barry in a exacta box with # 3 EZ EVENT and # 7 Billy's Ace.

Win bets 3 and 7
EX Box 3-5-7

Churchill Race 2
 

The M/L favorite gets scratched anyhow.

Hey Dog
thanx for chiming in man. Appreciate it. I just walked in the door and see that in the 4th race I posted the # 8 was scratched. When I remove him the race variegates now to early and the winning # 2 ( 13.80) is all over the readouts consistently. has that "smoothness" look Hat was talking about.

From Emuv-Uxr-ParA-Ear exdc etc

Funny how he came up when it variegated late and now with the scratch when it switched to early.

long way to go however with 3 races still to run, here are updated shots of the 4th race after scratcing the 8.

Thanx again Dog for weighing in

Result race 8
 

ok Dog. Just popped the winner and cold trifecta in the 8th :)

only 3 horses I had in the machine.

the winning 8 once again has that smoothness look Jimmy talks about.

Rich

Churchill Race #2 Alternate Adjust
 

Richie, this proves nothing after the fact, but if I use the alternate (E) adjust for this race the program prefers # 1 Easy Grades over # 5 Master Barry. At the very least one could make a case for boxing 1-3-7 instead of 1-5-7. I think this gves you more smoothness in the readouts.

I took #1's Easy Grades last paceline which was run in a 149.3 for 8.5 furlongs. Naturally using this line makes it very low in Total Energy. Probably what I could have done was go back 5 on this horse instead of the Alternate Adjustment. If one believes that last line was abnormally slow and you think the horse is a contender you could justify going back for a paceline.

Richie, will try to do the 10th race as it looks interesting.

Race 9
 

Dog this is a good head. Just did it again in the 9th man. Winner - cold exacta and just missed the cold triple from the 3 horses listed
Winner once again is everywhere like Jimmy likes to see man.

ok
Rich

Churchill Race #2
 

No redboarding intended, but to illustrate why selecting a proper paceline is very important.

Next Screen
 

This is the next screen. Easy Grades using 5th line back really moves up. If you do not like to go back the alternate (e) adjust moves him up also. Don't have to do this with this paceline.

Dog,
may I ask what was your original line choice for the winner there and what was the other line u inputted? Thanx


the # 2 wins the 10th race who I have nowhere on my radar. Still 3 for 4 is good even though 2 were chalky. Gives me enough feedback to continue.

NEVER underestimate the power of INSTINCT and GUT FEEL.

Richie

Final Screen
 

Richie, the smoothness you are looking for in the read-outs. The exacta is very gettable. Again not meaning to redboard, but I do like to go over losing races as a learning experience.

This aint redboarding man. u had something up before the race ran and now are doing a post mortem. least thats my opinion anyway

now I have to go look at the # 2 who won the 10th. I made the right call on the Mercedes horse didnt even put a line in for him. where the hell was he going lol

lemme look at the 2

thanx Dog for the feedback!

Lines inputted for race 2
 

Richie, originally I used the last line which was run in a slow time. Believing this horse was a contender I felt justified in going back 5 lines to the same distance. The TP lines are not useable. Richie, this was after the fact but as I said a learning experience. The exacta was over $50.00

10 race Churchill
 

Richie, did not get a chance to do the 10th race as I am at work. I did the second when I had a little break from work. I work in a computer department so that was how I was able to do it.

gotcha. Thank you. I am gonna work that 2nd race now and mill around a bit

Rich

Alternate adjust
 

Dog,
can u go into a little bit about what this alternate adjust thing is and when to possibly apply it.
Rich

Alternate Adjust Method
 

Richie, I am going to use the same race as an example. Churchill Downs 2nd Race. My pacelines may not be the same as yours but this is just to illustrate this procedure.

# 1 Easy Grades - Last Pace Line
# 2 Storm'n J R -(SCRATCHED)
# 3 EZ EVENT 5th line back at the same distance
# 4 Pescadito 3rd line back same distance
# 5 Master Barry 3rd Line Back
# 6 (Did not use) did not want to project this horse
# 7 Billy's Ace 3rd Line Back same distance

After running these horses through the Energy Generator #1 Easy Grades has very low Total Energy. Was the horse slow or the track slow that day. Looking back 5 lines I can see he can do much better than that at the same distance and track. Let's say we do not have any lines we can use for this horse except the last one, and we feel he is a contender. If we stick with the automatic adjustment we will not get this horse. The 2) Alternate Adjust will not get this horse either. What this procedure does is equalizes Total Energy for all the horses you enter. This is a big adjustment as you will see when you do this race. Anyhow here is the first screen.

Alternate Adjust Screen 2
 

Notice the (ENTER) or (E) we will want to type (E) here and not hit ENTER. This is what this screen looks like.

Alternate Adjust Screen 3
 

Here is the screen that comes up as soon as you type (E). At the bottom where it says to Enter Your Adjustment you will need to type in the same number that shows in the Pace Adjustment, not the Alternate Adj. In this case type in 1.88 in your Enter Your Adjustment. Do this for all your contenders making sure you enter the Pace Adjustment exactly as shown. The Pace Adjustment may have a negative number so enter this number exactly as shown. When you do this for all the horses you will see that Total Energy is pretty much equal. The Automatic Adjustment is preferred but at times this procedure needs to be used in situations like this. The Automatic Adjustment should be used the majority of the time. As far as the 2) Alternate Adjust I do not use it often. I guess for myself if I am going to adjust a horse upward I know what the (E) adjust does. Here is the screen shot.

Final Words Adjustments
 

I incorrectly called this the Alternate Adjust Method. This is really the 3) Manual Adjust Method. As I said I don't really use the Alternate Adjustment. Maybe someone else has some input when to use this as this adjustment is not as drastic as the Manual Adjustment. It is in the middle between auto and manual. I will see if I can research this further.

As a old time user of Energy, adjustments are made in increments of -.15 or +15 t a maximum of .45 plus or minus. This increment is used not for speed but for class or track to track indifferences. I only tell you this becuase using it for any other purpose will in fact give you un-true readouts. Been there, done that!

Dap

Dap, was wondering what adjustment you are referring to here.

Richie, you need to make your images at least as large as H's. I can't read yours.