Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   Step by Step/ Mnr Race 1/ Tonite (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1069)

RichieP 05-01-2006 08:32 AM

Step by Step/ Mnr Race 1/ Tonite
 
Software - Spec 150 - full variant
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5.5f - mdn claiming

will show 2 screen shots for each runner
f3 tab- showing horse matched up against itself
f4 tab- showing behavioral running styles

let's see if we can get in the "mix" at this track
Rich

RichieP 05-01-2006 08:33 AM

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horse 1 - f3 shows line 2 - f4 says that style is a repeated one - ok

line 2

RichieP 05-01-2006 08:36 AM

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horse 2 - "Punk" :eek: - 9 yr old who is 0 for 50 - nuff said

no line

RichieP 05-01-2006 08:43 AM

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here is horse 3 - gotta make a call man. off 7 months BUT is lightly raced compared to these pigs- don't like 5f lines -

gonna use the long layoff line -his first race ever - line 6 -it was against open maidens and today is md clm -just feels right - I don't know -gotta go with gut here - will remember if he projects off this line that he can do better
f4 says that line is ok based on style

line 6 :rolleyes:

RichieP 05-01-2006 08:45 AM

1 Attachment(s)
horse 4 - f3 likes last line - f4 says it's a keeper - easy one

last line

RichieP 05-01-2006 08:48 AM

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horse 5 - f3 says last line - f4 says go head looks good -

last line

RichieP 05-01-2006 08:52 AM

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horse 6 - line 2 is best - problem is it is 5f line - cant use it ESPECIALLY when the f4 shows that line's style completely outa whack


so what I do is consider that line 2 "non comparable" and bring in line 4 to consider ok? here line 4 is liked best by f3 tab and f4 says to go head -

line 4

RichieP 05-01-2006 08:59 AM

1 Attachment(s)
horse 7 - the big favorite according to ml - lmao! - this is something we are supposed to lose sleep over?? - once again avoiding the 5 f lines which brings in line 4 f3 and f4 both land on the lat line as the one to use here.

NOTICE how different the reads are on the 5f lines ok? remember this please when u are working YOUR track. see if the same things apply there.

back to business

last line

RichieP 05-01-2006 09:03 AM

1 Attachment(s)
horse 8 - look at this pig - line 4 comes up best as far as best of last 3 sprints - however f4 says no way Jose man - gonna use line 3 which repeats its favored early style

just a note-when u see a designated style as early and the number is on late side of graph u are dealing with a real pig line

line 3

RichieP 05-01-2006 09:06 AM

1 Attachment(s)
horse 9 - one lifetime race - looks horrible - no data available - today goes to sprint - WHY is top jock Whitney riding this?? - form reversal coming??

**** him

obviously no line

RichieP 05-01-2006 09:11 AM

1 Attachment(s)
horse 10 - ok here is our longshot horse it appears - line 2 comes up best on
f3 - f3 shows E/P while others are early - see I MYSELF put more weight on the NUMBERS - that line shows 1.2 - others show 2.4 and 5.1

to ME that 2 back IS comparable style

line 2

THIS horse is gonna kill these horses if he cycles back to that race from 7 weeks ago.

RichieP 05-01-2006 09:13 AM

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we have all the horses now. Here is screen shot of the e/l graph of whole field

speed "freaks" go head! :D

RichieP 05-01-2006 09:16 AM

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here is the Perceptor screen. I keep the top 5 Per-1 horses up on top half of screen.

So gonna hide the #'s 3 -5 and 8 who are ranked 6 7 and 8 according to Perceptor

RichieP 05-01-2006 09:23 AM

1 Attachment(s)
here is the bl/bl and summary screen side by side ok?

SIMPLE betting race

# 10 ( 8/1 ml) is obvious - he is gonna kill these ****ers

if he doesnt fire 2nd bet is either the 2nd ranked # 4 ( 4/1 ml) or for the speed freaks ( or those keeping models showing early is dominant) the # 1
( 7/2ml).

The big fav is ranked 3rd and cant be ignored fast enough - if he wins so what - toss his ass faster than u can type lol

safe day
Rich

RichieP 05-01-2006 07:45 PM

Results
 
Betting decision made even EASIER with the scratch of the # 4. To be HONEST I just walked in the door so I have no clue if it was early or late scratch ok?

Winner is the # 1 @ $ 8.00.

the chalk 7 runs second

the 10 is nowhere.

easy race to hit if u are betting 2 horses no? the other horse showing has NO corrolary support anywhere.

"Speed freaks" are in their glory man. lmao :)

also my "gut" call on paceline for the # 3 worked out pretty well.
ok

Richie

RichieP 05-02-2006 07:46 AM

Housekeeping
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP
Betting decision made even EASIER with the scratch of the # 4. To be HONEST I just walked in the door so I have no clue if it was early or late scratch ok?

Winner is the # 1 @ $ 8.00.

the chalk 7 runs second

the 10 is nowhere.

easy race to hit if u are betting 2 horses no? the other horse showing has NO corrolary support anywhere.

"Speed freaks" are in their glory man. lmao :)

also my "gut" call on paceline for the # 3 worked out pretty well.
ok

Richie

here is the race after scratching the # 4 and bringing in the 6th ranked Perceptor-1 horse

Richie


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