M4$16/2 Aug 27-lostandwon
 

lostandwon

Ind r7
 

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Post 8:53 pm Eastern

One more...

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My picks are #1 to WIN; #6 to WIN

For a 7-horse field, this is a difficult race.

I think the race will run EARLY without a lot of pressure. I have worked off #6's last line, adjusted for the distance. Both #1 and #6 are sharp and moving up in class after GTW wins. If the pace heats up, I expect M/L favorite #5 to win.

#3 and #7 are both dropping, but I'm not convinced of their form. The closers #2 and #4 won't have enough pace to run at.

#5 ships in from PrM and ran against FPLR. With any pace pressure, #5 should win. Otherwise, #1 and #6 will be on the lead and running modest fractions.

mick

Lost, it is unfortunate but with an off track there are three scratches...2,4, and7. Leaves a four horse field. Not sure there will be any value left.

Pook

There were alot of lines available for each horse. Don't know the first thing about horses but certainly didn't anticipate a bunch of scratches in a dirt race.

With that said, Pook, if, as the M4$ Commissioner, you would like to pull the race I would have no issue.

If not...

I ID'd 1, 5, 6, 7 as some form of E

I think the ML fave 5 is vulnerable with all the E, but she is a fighter.

The 6 ran faster than anybody else has her last race. I look at her as a dominant Early from that line. She is going up in class but has been competitive here previously.

Bet
Win 6

Lost, no once a race is posted that is it. Those who have submitted can however change their minds and post a pass if they wish.

Pook

There does seem to be good value on anything other than the 6.

Pook

Thanks for the race Lost but I am going to pass this one.

Pook

Wow, it's nice to know they're running some place besides WO in North America!

Even with the 3 scratches, I kind of like this race. Ignoring the last race of the 6 which I think is an aberration, she'll need a 22.2 to win loose on the lead. The 3 and the 5 are sustained and should be behind the 1.

This brings me to the 1 who showed a sharp effort last out at IND. Going back to the CD races, I see she can run from off the pace against a 21.3 45.4 and won her maiden on the lead against a 22.0. She has no races on an off-track but has worked very fast on a good track. If I get a reasonable price, she is my choice to win the race.

I got my price.

The 1 to win.

I think every horse has been favourite in the last two minutes.

Yeah Tim I think we are a little Woodbined out.

Nice one lost! Singles his own race, mud or no mud, scratches or no scratches. Mick wins two in a row and Capcondo finally makes a bet.

Pook

Took the missus out to dinner last night and missed all the action. That's why I posted early. Didn't know about the mud or the scratches, which is probably for the best. #6 cloned her last race, again going GTW, the fractions almost identical to the adjusted fractions of her prior. Lucky that she liked the off going while the others didn't.

mick

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