Old ideas work
 

Every once in awhile I get energetic and start to clean out masses of paperwork I had not looked at in years. Last week, in going through some old Sartin notes I made LONG AGO, I happened on a whole arena of an idea that works, NOT too often, but the mutuels are usually enormous.

Simply stated: always consider horses coming from the fastest paced races of the entire race. THIS angle would have made you look twice at Mine That Bird in his Kentucky Derby as I recall. Dortmund Firing Line and American Pharoah had the fastest paced races coming into their Derby as well.

It worked again today in the 8th at Saratoga (July 23, 2016). I searched the BEST in the last 10 and Tale of Verve ran the fastest pace of race in his Belmont last year ranking the best of all of these. Paid double digits.

There are NOT TOO many of these, but, as I said, they pay well.

NOW if I only knew the correlation between just being IN a fast paced race and today's effort. This is much the same as my discovery that the top 4 finishers in this years Queen's Plate were also the top four Fraction ONE winners. One of these days I might figure out the reasons here other than just randomness.

Trivia today about the Sanford.

MOW's only loss was in his version of the Sanford.

Secretariat's ONLY non favored start...Linda's Chief was the favorite.
http://www.secretariat.com/past-performances/

Interesting
 

Tim thanks for the post. Can you post the screen shots of the entries for the Saratoga race.

I don't use RDSS..use older programs

Best POR pace of race hit in the 9th on turf today as Gap Year had it and was almost top early pace,,, and this was a TURFER.

I will get back to tell you the line I used to discover this.
9/7/15 at Saratoga was the line that was both best and best early pace.

10/3/14 was the top line of any of the horses in this race at Keeneland.
so BOTH the fastest line overall and the best EP.......

I am backtracking to find if there are more...Recall what was written in Handicapping Magic: turf horses do not have form cycles like dirt horses.

When Court Vision won the Breeder's Cup Mile on turf defeating Goldikova, going back to some of this races the previous season put him LOGICALLY at the wire in that race.

this is another way of finding an old TURF angle "two lines better than the field," which FUNDAMENTALLY changed my outcomes on the lawn.

I have been pondering this since yesterday and it makes sense that a horse coming form a very strong pace of race, even in defeat, carries with it a performance that his higher than average total energy....at least the competitive energy of early pace. Even the first fraction oft times.

Many a good performance is over at the 8th pole and the rider does not push the animal further so third fractions can often be (in dirt anyway) less than stellar.

Ideas vs. Actions?
 

2016-07-23 14:37:56 Bet Saratoga 9 Superfecta $0.10 3 + 5 / 4 / 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 / 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 $2.40 $48.75.

Tim's observations are worth noting, and I believe are correct; it's an admirable quality to identify an opportunity, though not as rewarding as turning it into cash.

Regards,

chris

Apogies!
 

Believe I have the wrong race! At 77 am not as focused as I used to be.

Regards,

Chris

TIn retrospect, regarding Mine That Bird, IMO, the FPLR angle pointing to MTB actually understated the pace of his derby prep race - as he ran against a furious wind down the backstretch that day. If you look at the replay, the flags in the infield were stiff as a board.

FWIW This intrigued me. Let me say I'm not a handicapper in the old sense. I came to this very late in life and have always used just RDSS. Also I was taught by Richie P. to look at every line when working Turf races.

I began looking at Saratoga as I've been to the meet several times and indeed met Tim Y and his lovely wife there once. I've always had a degree of success there on dirt,, but never on Turf.

I worked all the Turf on the 23rd winning a couple and coming close on the rest, and having a curious mind went back over them trying various methods so see if there was a way to win using 2 lines for every horse.

This is the method I came up with that won every turf race on the 23rd. I shared this with Ted who encouraged me rather strongly to share it here.

I picked the top 2 lines using TPP on the Energy screen, then eliminated down to 4 on the BL screen using TT. If there were ties I referred to the BL to break them. The result was astounding. Six races - six wins in the top four contenders.

Encouraged I went on to play in real time the 24th, 27th, 28th, 29th and 30th. Of the six days of playing all the playable Turf at Saratoga regardless of field size - 26 races - 22 wins in the top 4 contenders.

On the 28th I shared this with one of my racing buddies rmath. He has his own unique way of elimination. I have only talked to him once since, but his results on the 28th were similar. I encourage him to post his findings as well.

One caviat. As I am one of Ted's testers, I am using the latest version of RDSS so there might be some variants.

Too bad this was all only on paper because as the track is settling in the prices are going down

Thank you Tim for setting me on this path. I'm now looking at Woodbine and for the past two days the results have been similar.

Cheers Barb

Hi Barb

I tried this after the fact with yesterday's Woodbine card, and got Lexie Lou in R8 (which was obvious without this method) but in R5, the 2 gets eliminated based upon the TT readouts. I’m not sure if i am doing this properly and i was wondering if you had similar results?

Hi Hoof
I must confess, I didn't have the 5th at Woodbine using TT for elimination. You are right, the 2 would have been eliminated, and Lexi was a given in the 8th. Right now, I'm concentrating more on Saratoga and just began Woodbine on the 29th to be ready for our meet in a couple of weeks.

Unlike Saratoga Woodbine presents the problem of so many horses never having run on turf, but mostly on poly. I have had no trouble in the past of interchanging turf and poly lines, but with the new surface, I'm not sure how this is going to work. I know I'm very interested to see if this method will work at tracks other than Saratoga. I'm going to use the premise of best 2 TPP turf lines if they are there, but if they are not I'll use turf and poly, or just poly if that's all there is. On the 29th it worked, 4 out of 4 races - 8th race was the only decent payout though #3 paid $16.00. I'll report back on today's races, and Ted wants me to see if this will work at Delmar, so that will give a little more insight into whether or not this is more than a one track wonder.

As an aside, I did get the 2 in the 5th, but not with this new way. As one of Ted's testers, I have access to the new RDSS2.1 and there were readouts there that led me to the 2.

Cheers Barb

Barb i encourage you that if you are working any woodbine races today to post them on our other thread so that we can have a good amount of sample races today. If you have no time, that is fine! I will be posting the 3 del mar turf races on the other thread and a looking forward to what your opinions are in those.

On a side note, you mentioning RDSS 2.1 just got me anxious for its release once again! Although it may not be for a while, I'm very much looking forward to being able to use it!

R6 at Woodbine, i get the 1-2-8 with this method, which happens to be the three top Total Energy horses as well as the three horses that have come within 1 length or less of breaking their maiden.

What a shocker, another favorite won.

Results .... 8-5-1-4

Royal North Stakes on the Turf.

My mistake, i forgot to scratch the 3.

Tt
 

Barb

Your using turn time for your elimination?

Bob

And another favorite....

Results ... 5-2-7-9

Through 2 days of racing at Woodbine, this method had the winner in the top four 50% of the time, the top 2 "Class" horses are dominating today.

If i have some time this week i will go through the entire season at Woodbine, but i am skeptical, especially using the TT readout, i find the TT readout to be useless.

But like Frank Zappa use to say, "the mind is like a parachute, it only works when it's open."

That was my initial reaction.

like if your using TPP for your contenders u would use that to eliminate horses to get your final four?

Bob

In response to Barbs request I ran the 9th at GP today.
I entered the two best TPP lines from the energy screen and then eliminated down to 4horses on the BL screen. My final 4 were the 1-2-3 &8.
I boxed all four for a dollar in the exacta, and bet the #3 to win and place at 18/1 and the #8 to win, place and show at 99/1.
It ran 1-8 and the exacta paid 156.30 for a dollar and the #8 paid 54.60 to place and 12.60 to show.
If anyone has this race I suggest you run it like Barb says and see if you get the same horses.
Good luck,
Rmath

I am. I didn't set out to use it. I was looking at all readouts to see what would work for elimination at Saratoga when using the 2 highest TPP lines for each horse. Using TPP for the 2 best lines was Ted's idea. After experimenting with different processes for elimination, I found TT was the only consistent one for Saratoga. When I mentioned this to Ted, he found it sufficiently interesting that he suggested (rather forcefully for him) that I post my findings here. It is working at Saratoga. Whether or not it works at other tracks remains to be seen. I would like it to work at Woodbine, but who knows yet.

This just something I'm experimenting with. If you want to try it, be my guest. If not...don't. I notice rmath had a good win with it at GP today.:)
cheers Barb

It was Tim Y's idea, which he mentioned in the other Turf Racing thread.

Let the ODDS board be your elimination platform, NOT a handicapping factor.

Get the top group (total energy is a FAR better final elimination or deceleration as few horses win above 108% or below 98% win on the lawn, or pace of race) then see how the CROWD evaluates them.

This is ultimately a wagering game is it not? Spend MORE time on that side of the equation and stop splitting hairs on the capping side. If two horses present close to the same readouts, always take the longer odds opportunity. Forget about the RANK of each horse as it chases people off good betting chances. Look for the mismatches between YOUR projected probability and the odds board's.

IT is, at times, a difficult task switching between the art of the handicapping challenge (where there is NO ONE WAY TO GO) and the more rigid, cold and calculating RULE based wagering standards of the betting side of the equation. Realize that the national average of favorites winning is around 34-36% which is probability wise in the 2/1 range. IF YOU CANNOT GET at LEAST 2/1 stay away from the public choice as it represents NEGATIVE EXPECTATION.

If an odds on horse ranks top (like Lexie Lou would 95% of the time) either don't waste another moment on the race, or key that one in an exotic. Any more I will not touch at race unless there are at least 7 entrants and the TOP capping horse has something about it that does not create confidence in a wager. ...otherwise, let the suckers bet that one and move on.

Also, where weather makes a difference, chart the speed tendencies of each winner coming INTO the card to see whether a bias is evolving. They come and go so often that one has to be aware of them IN ADVANCE to make them work for you. Look for a REAL Bias not just front runners that figure winning, I mean there have to be faint hearted animals regularly hanging on to be counted a true bias. Often the relative e/l readings versus the standards for the tracks distance will be skewed to the positive side (i.e. average may be +12 for sprints and +20 horses are winning).

I got the splitzacta 1 5 with the 8 early speed (contra energy) based upon the same evaluation.
They are constructed JUST like this often on every card.

Big Win
 

At DMR yesterday the 6th was a 5f turf race.
I ended up with 5 contenders because of a tie for 4th on TT.
Had the win place and show in contenders;
Win 85.80
1.00 exacta 322.30
.50 tri 938.80

So far using the guidelines as posted I have had very good results at several different tracks, SAR, GP, DMR, AP to mention a few.

Tim Y suggested using post time odds to separate the final contenders which is what I have been doing.

Normally I do not play Turf races, but after talking to Barb, she convinced to try a few at different tracks. So far I have had some very interesting results.
With prices like these and a hit rate in the 65 to 75% rate I would suggest that we all jump in and play along.
I want to thank Tim Y and Barb C. and Ted for sharing their findings with us.
Rmath

rmath would you mind posting your readouts and lines you selected for each horse in this race? I enter the horses best TPP line 3 back and it comes out dead last on every readout in RDSS, so i am curious as to how it ranked well in your readouts.

[IMG]DMR6th[/IMG]

Latekick, not sure if the image I sent will open. thelines I ended up with are as follows.
#8 line2
#2 line 4
#4 line 1
#6 line 1
#3 line 1
the # 3 & #4 were tied for 4th on TT so I left them both in.
After I get them down to this point I play the two highest odds regardless of any other ratings.
The 3 horse was not rated very high on any of the ratings but at 40/1 he was a bettable horse.
If you would like to chat sometime I am on skype.
Rmath

Woodbine August 1/16

R1 – 5-4-1
R5 – 2-9-8
R9 – 1-6-7-3

Races 1 and 5 are garbage races, i would take them with a grain of salt, with R1 being a clockwise race which are absolutely pointless seeing that Woodbine can't time these races properly, and R5 is a maiden race with very few lines to work with as well as two crappy FTS. R9 however has an opportunity for value, we shall see.

Hmm i am still getting 5s across the board on the 3 although i see that you say he was tied for 4th on TT.
Maybe i am missing something.
I am very interested in working these turf races this way, however i believe i may be able to find a better way to narrow it down to top 4 using something other than TT. NOTHINg against you or Barb who are doing it this way, it is just in my nature to try to find other efficient ways to do it. Currently with my normal selections i rarley use TT, and have been doing very well. I will begin to test some other ways of narrowing down the field using something other than TT. It obviously works for you, as well as Barb so i do respect it. I just want to see how other ways may work.

test
 

Latekick, that is a good idea. What Barb and I are doing is testing the waters to see what we can come up with. If you find a better way please share it with the rest of us.
Good Luck

Rmath

You are right about the 3 horse, His TT was the only way he qualified, but most 40/1 shots do not have good BL or VDC ratings.

Will do rmath. I am so intrigued by this method because of the fact in tournaments most of the time you dont get to pick what races you play, instead they are chosen for you. I've got a good handle on maidens, and First timers by my own methods after studying for months and finding ways to manipulate RDSS in a way for different races. The only small hole in my game has been turf races. Although i still do well with them and am able to maintain, i feel as though if my turf handicapping can match my dirt handicapping, i can increase my profits even more. This is exciting because i already am doing quite well with my contest play, so if we are able to get a grasp on this, and master it, the profits could become incredible. My hope is that we can work together to bounce ideas off of each other and get this thing figured out and profitable! Appreciate your postings so far and forcing us to take notice of this interesting method.

Also, i received your message and will try to start contacting you when i get some time and have some ideas to bounce around! Thanks!

Results

R1 – 5-4-1 ..... 2-4-6-1

R5 – 2-9-8 ..... 8-9-2-4 (8 = $7.80) (Ex = $41.60) (Tri = $97.10)

R9 – 1-6-7-3 ..... 4-1-5-6

What I find interesting about snow cloud was her 5F turf and poly races oversees and the comment lines each one produce.


(1) lead near finish
(2) kept on strongly
(3) strong run final furlong


Cassidy used route race to put some finish into snow cloud. Third race back
produced top total energy figure in the field.

God I love horseracing!!...:)

Paul link
Los Angeles,Ca

Dick,
I did that and here is the screen shot of what I got. My 8 horse is so far down the list, its hard to see him. When I eliminate the worst of each two horse set so that I have one line for each horse the 8 is still far down the list as can be seen by the second screen shot. any ideas on why we are different?

Paul, don't know if you have the New Pace module or not, but if you do and you use the Trackmaster option for speed ratings, Snow Cloud is the second best Late horse, L2 in New Pace parlance based on its foreign races speed rating.

Also note that Snow Cloud's 6.5 turf race was from SA. I usually add 8 points to the adjusted speed rating to see how it relates to the rest of the field, in this case pretty good. I just started looking at this next adjustment, but because of the low adjusted Speed Rating you can probably add about 4-5 points of total energy to see how the horse might rank. You can see that its best TE of the horses than ran down the hill at SA. But perhaps better than that, look at the first and third fractions and the deceleration. Forget the 2nd fraction from these down the hill races, its altered by the slope and the program for some reason really undervalues it.

In this race there were four horses who raced down the hill in the lines that I chose. compare the horses from the down hill turf course to themselves and look for weaker horses to eliminate. See note on #7 below. The 3 has the best F1 of these 4, out runs the 7, can't be caught by the 5 and can only be over taken by the 12

Then I looked at the top two horses (also the favorites in the ML), for me the 8 and 4 and see that their E/L numbers are very high, +21 and +16 respectively (these numbers do not win turf sprints..) eliminate them and the picture becomes clearer. On the velocity screen their F3 values are right at 30.0 and lower. See also that the 7 who can't make the lead has an F3 of 29.8 after not being competitive at the second call. With these 3 eliminated the final field might look something like this: