Formulas
 

Several weeks ago I finished up Modern Pace Handicapping, have been using the teachings in the book with some varied success but insanely positive promise and trends but I went searching for more. I landed here on this site and pretty much all I can say is "what have I gotten myself into?"

I do my handicapping in an excel spreadsheet currently but would love to upgrade to RDSS, that said, I feel it will be a waste to do so without fully understanding the math behind the program. I've poured over the follow ups trying to extract formulas, but there is really no such thing in the follow ups, I feel as if I'm suppose to just know everything already or that the teachings took place elsewhere that I am unaware of and the follow ups are just that, follow ups to the actual teachings (that I am unaware of).

So the question, is there a place where I can obtain the post-M.P.H. formulas and ideas so I can begin to understand what each rating is actually performing? I'm most interested in the energy formulas, but really, I feel like I need every formula (if possible) to actually understand the content and conceots in the follow ups.

Does ANYBODY have these formulas?

I would talk to Bill V and Ted. I reached out to both of them when i was in your position just starting out and they are always more than happy to help.

Yellow manual and Dynamics
 

When I first started with the methodology, I knew nothing about it,
I called Mary Sartin, I got her number from Richie P.
Richie was teaching me how to pace handicap. and He thought I would do well with a program Doc sold called PL4
I became a client and the first thing they did before they sent the program was send me a package.
In that package was , The Yellow Manual , and a manual called The Dynamics
of Incremental Velocity and Energy Excertion
They also sent me some sheets with Velocity FPS numbers

When I called Doc after the package came he told me
not to worry about the FPS numbers and ratings for EP SP FX and the other from MPH
He said they were all compounded and adjusted and equalized to today's race distance and It really
was not necessary to know the formulas just trust the compounded ratings.
He said call him when PL4 came .
I called Doc when I got the program and we did some races together over the phone , I remember how the horses that were rated first second or third
on the compounded readouts screens were high lighted , Doc said just look at the horses with the most 1's and 2' in the compounded readouts
and get rid of all the horses with out and 1 2 or 3 rankings.

I suggest reading the Yellow manual and the Dynamics manual.
They both are written by Doc Sartin and are in the Pace and cap library.
There also is a glossary of terms , If you use the pace and cap
google site search you will find it,
Good Skill
Bill

Thank you guys so much for getting back to me. I guess I was stuck on the follow up manuals that I never even realized that there was substantially more than just those. What a joyous occasion.

So generally speaking I should be able to find most of the formulas and concepts behind them in these manuals? If so, no ponies for me today, just enrichment.

Hi poweshow, and welcome to PaceandCap and to the Sartin Methodology (circa 2016)!

Some of the formulas are in the public domain and some are not. The ones that are are either discussed somewhere here at P&C, or in the Follow Ups, or in the 2 major published books on the earlier Methodology: Modern Pace Handicapping and Pace Makes the Race. You can use the Google Site search of this site (left edge of the menubar) to find discussions on various factors. I did send you an email with the links to the main Help-Reference pages for RDSS (http://www.rdss2.com/help-reference)

Here are some rough notes on which current factors you cannot get formulas for, thus - like some other good things in life (your cell phone, TV, GPS, electricity, the internet, Col Sanders secret recipe ...) you will have to be content with simply using and enjoying them, modelling their effectiveness and profitability to you personally: in the end, choosing to use or not use them ;)

VDC - Velocity relative to Deceleration (see Doc Sartin's 'whitepaper' on the concept in FOllow Up ~74 (?); also hunt for several detailed discussions over the years, many by me

BL/BL - weighted Primary factors (just tinker with it for a bit ... ;) )

E/ep, L/ep, Tpp - Early/Late/Total Energy potential (similar to, yet distinct from the TPR numbers from Pace Makes the Race - see below)

Work Rank - measure of horse fitness (see FAQs under Workout Form Patterns)

Fractals - on the BLBL screen: are there for historical compatibility (forget about them, or - model them if you like)

PF3 - Projected Fraction 3, BLBL screen, Supplementary section: but see Pizzolla's discussion in Handicapping Magic on 'Projected Power Fraction'

The Tote Xray factor for measuring hidden relationships between live tote pools.

The method for computing Perceptor rank for pacelines, used to assist in judging best pacelines to use.

The method for applying adjustments to sectional times (Daily and Inter-track variants supplied by TrackMaster), the method of equalizing distance via 'par gaps' to a mythical 'norm' track we affectionately refer to as Sartin Downs


Aside from the above (as best I can think, off the top) - the formula for everything else is described somewhere - including velocities and their compoundings, TPR numbers, all the 'Primary Factors', The Matchup. Hunting pays off: that which is handed over at no cost (i.e. personal effort, not just dollars) is typically disregarded and disrespected (not saying at all this refers to you - clearly you are highly motivated and seeking direction).

At the same time: the entire broken out 'bill-of-materials' and every last nut and bolt and battery for an electric car (even with all the patents in the public domain) - does not equal a Tesla sports car ... nor do the individual components cited above - plus the ones NOT cited which formulas can be known - equal the synergy of them all working smoothly together in the RDSS tool. I can tell you for 100% certain - that many profitable users of all these formulas could not tell you what they mean or how they are derived, even if they can tell you enthusiastically HOW they use them, their observed interrelationships, and situational applicability.

Something everyone has to go through for themselves is: how much ground-work do I need, how much theory do I need to grasp first - compared to palain old, down-and-dirty hands-on usage, then recordkeeping of your results, then applying a feedback loop (as Latekick describes) to get a better and better handle on things. It will take some time, some success/failure cycles - and that barrier is what keeps the mutuels in this game intact! In the end - this is a human/emotional/psychological --> personal introspective endeavour - infinitely more so than mere number crunching.

Ask lots of questions, take your time, enjoy. And again - welcome: we need the enthusiasm of the younger generation!

Ted

poweshow - just a follow up: on request, I do go over the RDSS screens, their general derivation, inter-relationships and usage, by remote computer connection with any RDSS subscriber who asks.

Ted

Ted, can you point to a place, if you know easily, please, where the Primary and BL/BL screens are described or discussed in detail?

Kevin

Welcome Poweshow,

I don't think anyone should be denied the pleasure of reading the Yellow Manual before you know what is happening! Also don't forget to read the Psychology Of Winning manual first. That is mandatory.

Check out Follow Up 21. There is a beginners column by Dick Schmidt that runs for a few issues. In FU 21 there is a summary of the public domain formulas.

Start here:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8979

I'm curious again
 

Are these the modern day F-P-S formulas of the Sartin Methodology?:

Topic A: Early pace

Sprints: 2640/ (elapsed time at 4fs+beaten lengths) or Sprints: average of fps of runner's 1st and 2nd 1/4s ?

Routes: 3960/ (elapsed time at 6fs+beaten lengths), or Routes: ((2640/ elapsed time at 4fs+beaten lengths) + (3960/ elapsed time at 6fs+beaten lengths)) / 2 ?



Topic B: Sustained pace

Sprints: (Early Pace + 3rd fraction) / 2 or Sprints: average of fps of runner's 2nd and 3rd fractions ?



Topic C: Factor W

is it still ? (in f-p-s of course) ((( 2nd call early pace + 3rd fractn)/2) * ( 2nd call early pace)) / 55


Mike

Hi Mike,

I have answered your questions below, in red:

Not looking for a formula
 

Just asking for a definition when it comes to

"dream race" deceleration par readouts.

I'm sure:

ep/dv is 2nd fraction divided by 1st fraction;

he/dv is final fraction/ 2nd fraction;

td/dv is final fraction/ 1st fraction;

and pm/dv is final fraction/ 2nd call.


I tried to figure out what's P/dv still without success.

Thanks for any help. No rush of course.


btw. having fun using RDSS2.

Thanks again,

Mike

Tom, over on PA had this :

PM (Par median) is the relationship between second call and third fraciton.
DTE is the dream race total energy.
Ep/Dv is the early pace relationship of F-1 and F-2 (F2/F1)
P/Dv is the presser pace relationship (F2/2C) and is strongly related to Mitchel's ability time, and also from Contender Scan, this is the Factor S that was so very predictive of contenders.
HE/Dv - pace relationship fo hdden energy
Td/Dv - pace relationship of F-3 to F-1

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...p/t-11767.html

I would have never came up with that. :)

Thank you DanBoals.

Decelerations work very well on turf, NOT so much on dirt

I haven't researched this at all.


But I'll venture this guess:

On dirt, deceleration is likely more significant at longer distances

and at the top 20% of class levels which would be present at the major tracks.


One example being:

Majors with class levels of open NW2x and up

vs

minor tracks with beaten and time restricted claimers < $10k and, of course bottom maiden-claimers.

evaluate by the implications in a single race...FORGET this man made class malarkey as EACH pace is unique even if the same horses are involved over and over.....Form changes with each start.

The HORSE the HORSE and the HORSE give you all the data you need..... leave the humans out of the evaluations.

realize too that many readouts are track specific.....as to their being relevant or not.

Hi Mike -

I was just reading some of your questions here on the velocity formulas. Did you get what you needed? I still use them as they were written from way back and they are as good now as back then.

Let me know and I can run through them with you.

Best!

Chuck

Class=performance=class. Tim Y is spot on.
Tim G

I been with the group since 1990 and closed a few bars with the Doc, Jimmy, Tom B & others. I have heard this question about formulas come up numerous times at seminars and the Docs answer generally was that you really didn't need to what they are just that they work[I paraphrased this]. If one doesn't put the proper contenders and pacelines in the program in matters not what the formulas are you are not going to win period.
Tim G

Hello Chuck,

Yes, I got what I was looking for.

I've been using RDSS recently.
I use it for about 30-50% of my overall handicapping process.

So the formulas aren't as significant to me now as it was earlier in this thread.

It turns out I'm only interested in the:
VDC, E/ep, L/ep, TPP, TS+F3, DCL, FW and FX readouts; in that order
when using RDSS as one of my filters.

Oddly enough, the 1st five readouts (bold), I have little to some idea
of how those numbers are generated, but I'm only interested in determining their effectiveness in whatever different situations I can distinguish.

Therefore, what little knowledge I have about the make-up of those readouts is sufficient for me.

Of course, that takes some digging.

In reading the follow ups, and searching this site, I have a good enough understanding of what these readouts are supposed to tell the user.


Thanks,

Mike

well said Tim Y. The horse The horse The horse....leave humans out of evaluations

How are the actual BL odds contrived after the BL scores are calculated? It seems like the BL odds are based on BL score groupings from what I observe from the postings.