MC June 13/14 by mowens33
 

Back to regular 2 horse win betting with Mike.

Woodbine

ill take a short closer here picking up good jock #5 dancing ashley

Woodbine

W0 7

3 and 6 are Early at 22 1/5 with 6 dominant.
6 shows in 2nd line back that she won't slow down to save energy. Lost open lead last out.

Look for OTE

4 vs 7

4 hasn't seen this pace and is stretch runner. 4 beat 7 in tandem over 7f 2nd back but was behind at the 6f while 7 fought the whole way.

7 passed pacesetter 6 last out first time over track this meet. Figure an improve as well.

7 to Win bet.

Wo r7
 

PACE: 22.1 - 44.4
OTE

Win: 7 - 5

Woodbine June 13/15

Race 7

The 1 Maythefourthbwithu is scratched from R7.

Scratches at WO #7
 

the 1 is scratched.

WO #7:

Thanks for posting this race Mike.

The 3 and 6 look like the speed. Looking at the break position, it looks like the 6 should get an easy lead having won the break 4 times in a row. What's more, the six has won 5 out of 6 races where she's gotten the lead.

The 6 is my choice to win the race.

Tim

Woodbine
 

I'm on board with Tim here. The 6 dominates the 3 and should hold off the 7 late. My pick is the 6.

Six horses in this match up but still interesting. The #6 horse took two years off to correct whatever ailments and now seems to be a different horse. But the big question is whether six furlongs is its best suitable distance. This one does dominate the 2nd fraction but the six furlong distance is a question mark even this dominated his return race after two years off but at five furlongs. The #7 horse Kay's Grace has a big chance of "bouncing" after a major effort off the layoff; meanwhile the #5 horse seems to have worked out in the same race after a six months layoff and this one did run well at the today's distance as a three year filly. I'm going to cover two scenarios in this match up: one the #6 horse Tahmee puts away the early speed and is able to slow down the second fraction and last longer in the stretch run or If indeed, the #5 horse Dancing Ashley reverses its form and runs its better races in today's match up as this one has a sub 24.0 last fraction kick.


My two selections are the #5 and the #6 .

Good skills

#6 trainer has 2 big angles here.....

sprints 57 races 35%
synthetic 58 races 31 %

Woodbine June 13/15

Race 7

1 – Scratched
2 – S ... Toss
3 – E/P ... 22.2 – 44.8 ... Contender
4 – S ... Toss
5 – P ... Contender
6 – E ... 22.1 – 44.5 ... Contender
7 – P ... Toss

Selections – 3-5

Woodbine Oaks

June 13 Woodbine Race 7

I got this down to the same three horses as most. #3 and #6 contesting a low 22's quarter with #7 in behind. The #3 is fast enough to stress the #6. #7 gained against the FPLR which could set him up here to close and win against the other two.

(7) WIN

sorry no write up......sunday wbine race..

win..........4-6

Results

Woodbine Race 10

Scratches Sunday, WO #10
 

No scratches

WO Sunday R10
 

49.5 - 115.2
OTE
Win 8-3

I agree with Mike about the speed. The 6 and 9 are early with an assist from the 1. So, I'm looking OTE from the 3rd or 4th position. This leave me with the 8 and the 10. The 8 has shown several good positional moves.

The 8 is my choice to win the race.

Tim

Grab bag race...
 

Sprints to a route and grass horses trying to establish decent synthetic dirt form:


Such is a race for a half-million dollar Oaks race restricted to Canada-bred fillies.

I do not see any dominant speed in this match-up and I evaluated London Tower as a horse who needs soft early fractions to go wire to wire. Thus, I will go OTE and go with:

#5 Brooklynsway and #10 Shez a Masterpiece

Good skills

I matched the 4-5-6-10 off their sprints and the 5 by far overcame the fastest fractions and noted that the 6 who broke slow won its race showing that its just not ONLY AN E type. I eliminated the 1-4-9 as earlies to cancel each other out. the 2-3 are slow, the 7 is still a maiden, the 8 can press this group.

Still I like the 5 and 6.

I agree, the 1 is a "need the lead" type horse and could possibly put up faster fractions on the poly, but that is the million dollar question.

The 6 is the real deal and can win on the lead and from off the pace, Steve Owens really deserve's a win here with the hell he has gone through.

Woodbine June 14/15

Race 10

1 – E/P ... 24.1 – 47.8 – 112.1? ... Toss (Wildcard)
2 – P ... Toss
3 – S ... Toss
4 – P ... Toss
5 – P ... Contender
6 – E ... 24.5 – 48.4 – 113.1 ... Contender
7 – S ... Toss
8 – P ... Contender
9 – E ... 24.1 – 48.6 – 112.9 ... Contender
10 – P ... Contender

Selections – 6 - 5

wish i boxed ur choices hoof....they let the 9 walk

i can never bet maidens 1x with winners...never mind in a stks

Hoof, hope you got a little action on that 9!

Mike

just noticed he was the lone e8 on bris pps

Sad to hear Danzig Moon had to be put down, RIP buddy.

The rain creates a lot of havoc on this dead race track, but it brings some great prices but at times makes no sense.

On a happier note, i need the 6-9-3 in R11 for the P4.

R8 – 4-10-6
R9 – 10-7-12-9
R10 – 6-5-9
R11 – 6-9-3

Yep, "Mister 3 for 4" does it again.

Some days i really hate this game.

Have a good night guys.

Hoof, that sucks!
That would have been a monster ticket if that 9 got up!!

Results

Leading up to today, there were 3 horses in the field that had a final time of 1:44 and change at 8.5F.

5 – 1:44.4
6 – 1:44.7
9 – 1:44.5

Academic ran a personal best today laying down fractional times of 23.63 – 48.01 – 1:12.33 over a fast track while setting a track record with a final time of 1:48.86, very impressive outing.

London Tower had a terrible jump at the gate leaving him last, and was 6-1/2 lengths back at the first quarter. He ran impressively making up lost ground but the bad start was too much to overcome.

Season Ticket had a similar jump to London Tower and had far too much ground to make up, but finished strong as expected with an impressive late kick in the stretch. It looks like these two need more schooling at the gate.

It was a bit of a strange day for the combo of John Oxley/Mark Casse, they had two breakdowns with Revello in the second race, and Danzig Moon in the Plate Trial.

Revello was stalking the pace and broke down coming out of the second turn, the filly was pulled up and vanned off.

Danzig Moon injured his right-hind quarter before the second turn. Jockey Julien Leparoux pulled up the son of Malibu Moon immediately, but made contact with the trailer R U Watchingbud, who fell as well, tossing his rider, Emma-Jayne Wilson. Danzig Moon was euthanized, while Leparoux, Wilson and R U Watchingbud were unhurt.

"The injury consisted of a compound fracture and the horse was humanely euthanized," said Dr. Grey Taylor, commission veterinarian for the Ontario Racing Commission. "The horse will go for a post mortem at Guelph (Equine Guelph Hospital)."

Danzig Moon finished fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby, a second in the Bluegrass, finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby as well as finishing sixth in the Preakness.

Morning Hoof,

Are drugs the reason a horse will race so hard that they fracture legs. Thats the impression I have. That they don't feel the pain because it is masked. Also maybe inbreeding has led to delicate structure. But I'm sure a lot of the time it is just a bad step. I have never heard of humans breaking legs while racing. This is one area of the sport we love that I am most uncomfortable with. I can't believe though that a trainer like Casse would do drug things with a horse of this calibre.

When looking at Danzig Moons last two lines I thought that this just isn't the same horse. Should he even be racing. Was he trying to tell us something. The public still made him favourite but I had an odd feeling about him before he ran.

Pook

I’ve been thinking about this all morning, there has been a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach since yesterday, it really bothers me when a horse goes down.

I have a couple of thoughts on the matter, the first one being the track surface. It is well documented that Poly causes a lot of hind end injuries, there are fewer fatalities on the surface but a lot of horses have sore rear quarters after they race on the surface. The surface is long overdue to be replaced, and i imagine that the surface is tightening up especially with all the rain we have had over the weekend. The fact that Academic ran a track record in the Oaks tells me that the surface was firmer than usual, generally, when the Poly gets rained on it usually turns fluffy and is a burden on early runners. Yesterday and the day before we were seeing a lot of wire jobs, and by my weather model, that isn’t supposed to happen, the rain should cause a late bias. I follow the workouts everyday at Woodbine, and over the last 4 days we are seeing some blazing works, so that tells me that the track is tightening up, and i hope we don’t start seeing fatalities on a regular basis, December can’t come soon enough.

Casse is by no means an angel, he has his fair share of drug violations, and when you operate a horse colony of his size, how do you explain the amount of success that he has had? Do you really think he can give the attention needed to so many horses? I’ve always had my suspicions about his operation. There is a lot of money invested into the horses he trains, he has some really wealthy clients, John Oxley alone spends a small fortune on his horses and i imagine that results are expected.

I was shocked when he decided to run Danzig Moon in the Triple Crown races as well as taking a stab at the Queen’s Plate, i’m no trainer but that is a lot to ask from a horse in a short period of time, even Oxley was concerned about the workload. I imagine the phone conversation was a little uncomfortable after the fact.

Lastly, the horse may have had a slight injury when Leparoux pulled him up, and the collision between Danzig Moon and R U Watchingbud may have caused the back right quarter to break. I rewinded the incident after it happened and watched it a couple of times, it was pretty horrific. There could be other reasons, i don’t know, it was a sad day to see a horse of that caliber go down.

I was thinking last week that I hadn't seen any bad breakdowns for weeks and even months at the tracks I follow. I was wondering whether something had changed in drug policies and that they were being used less. Then came Sunday. And today I saw a breakdown in the stretch in the 3rd at Delaware. I hate it.

Maybe it is just random or maybe their are improvements. The motive for drugs is profit. And like you say trainers are under pressure to produce results. Nobody wants to see injuries but I guess the feeling is to squeeze out as much as you can from every horse.

I think I read somewhere that an overall drug policy for all the US is trying to come together. What would happen if all drugs were banned and it was strictly enforced. Would it be so bad. It would be a level playing field. There would be cheaters but if the penalty was a lifetime expulsion for an infraction there might not be many. Isn't European racing much more drug free and injury free. Except maybe those nasty steeplechase races.

Pook
(This is a good discussion Hoof. I will try and get our last few posts moved to the general discussion area so that more can see and chime in.)