Matchup Challenge May 30/31 by Capcondo
 

Tim

Saturday Penn National Rce #9
 

Saturday 5/30 I've found a sprint at 6 furlongs at Penn National with some early speed. If you're a bit late getting to this on Saturday, not to worry. Have another cup of coffee. Post time is 9:37 PM EST. BTW, Penn has a big card on tap for Saturday with a $500,000 race.

Here is the link to the 9th:

Attachment 38984

A couple of other races I considered but did not use for the contest are the 3rd at Thistle Downs and the 10th at Churchill Downs. Feel free to take a look at them.

I'll look for a Sunday race.

Runs OTE and the 6 wins-

I wrote everything out on paper, and don't feel like typing it, because I doubt anybody reads it.

(If we're using 2 horses, then I will also include the 2)

penn r9. #2 @ #4.....both show me good races chasing .45 speed

Pen R9
 

Pace 22 - 46
Early

Win #5 - #7 - ok #7 is EP, if the pace fall apart he will have first jump

Saturday
 

This is a fun track, glad you picked a race from there Tim. I projected the pace as 22.3 and will go OTE since none of the earlies stand out to me. My contenders are 2,4 and 6. I'm not sure how to compare times between parx and pen, but I will go with the 2 to win.

Th #5 has plenty of 44's and 45's at 2nd call, mostly 60+ 1st fractions and has still only won once. He "might" have an advantage at 2nd call. Four other entries will be there with him at "22.5/46.1/and 58.4. OTE - The # 7 will be right there and has some of the best final fractions and is my closer - if the trainer and jockey don't try to force him to run up front as in his last race.
#7

Sunday PRX #6
 

I thought we might be able to get Bill V to chime in if we put up a PARX race!

If you haven't won a race since 11/30, PRX is where you want to be on Sunday.

Post time is 3:10 EST

Attachment 38990

Penn

No scratches on Penn national Race

It looks like the 3 and 5 are early here. The 5 can run a 22.2 and needs a length lead. The 3 can run a 22.3 so this is going to run OTE.

1: Can run a 22.3 46.1 59.1 Not good enough. Out.
2: One fast line 3 back. Out.
4: 22.3 46.2 58.4. Out.
6: Can handle a 22.1 46.0 58.3 and handled a 22.1 6 lines back. Contender.
7: Ran well against a 22.1 46.3 58.3 5 lines back.

The 6 is OTE and has handled the fastest pace. The 6 is my choice to win the race.

Really great to see so many Match-Up posters
 

At first glance, it looks like the race will run OTE but after looking closely at the #5 Benny Time...this one has raced on synthetic tracks but on the main dirt track, this one has shown blazing speed before faltering down the lane...This one is the pure speed and no one will be able to keep up with his blitzing speed and the jockey is winning at 80% rate...

Orbit has shown the best hidden energy move and should pick up the pieces should Benny Time go too fast early...

These are my two picks for this race...

Good Skills

A little past my bedtime.....
 

but so what, one must be able to match under all conditions, and at all times!
This is certainly a challenging one, odds are all over with no clear favourite, so here goes.

Penn National #9 Chart
 

The 2 was a late scratch at the gate. Here's the chart:

Attachment 38994

Prax R6
 

OTE
Pace: 47.2 - 113.1

Win# 7 - 8

See attached workup

LS, nice call, thought the 4 would be in pace duel with the 5 (I did see the dirt speed) which would hurt his chances? Once I seen he was in good press position I knew it was over.

Mike

Parx Sunday
 

I like this race to run early. The 3 comes out of a fast race fighting for multiple calls early before fading to a distant second. That pace is so much faster than any of the other locals have faced recently. The only question mark I have is the 7 horse who has run well against the 3's pace or faster. No comparable lines to compare between those two so i will take the 3 and the 7 to win.

Looks like Pete and I are seeing eye to eye this weekend. Hopefully no more scratches.

parx....i will be on the jimmys.......#3 @ #4....both have good mid and late pace #s...and i did figure for mud if it did rain

was watching the penn race last night...the 2 was taking solid ex money...then he broke threw the gate without the jock....he was going to be a key pace contender, then the p horse #4 wires them

2 is scratched in the 6th at PARX

When I looked at this race, I saw the 3 as a lone early fighter for the first two calls in fast fractions. That's why I posted the race. He also fought in the sprint at the bottom of the form.

The 3 is my choice to win the race.

Tim

Sorry Gent's but the wife had other plains for me today???

Wish I had capped Cousin Michael!

My wife may have had that one!!

Ouch...
 

You had the right idea for this race Tim...led every jump but the last. I actually thought he might have won the bob watching it live. You'll get 'em home next time...

Poor Jimmy
 

He tried so hard. When I watched the replay later I watched it 5 times and was sure he had won but was disqualified for weaving and interfering with the 1. I think if he did actually win there was a good chance he would have been taken down. Weird camera angle at that track.
Most of us who played would have profited well on that one. Great lone E situation Tim and those who had the 3 can't feel too bad because we were right but just a bit unlucky.

Pook

PARX 6th Chart
 

For those of you that must see the chart for the PARX 6th, here it is:

Attachment 38997

Notice the 1st quarter mile time of 22.4. That may have done Jimmy in. I've been well trained by the Hat through RichieP.

Maybe next time

There is only so much that you can predict in a race. Jimmy goes out in 22.4 around two turns. Why today? The 4 is 2.5 back so you wouldn't say that Jimmy is being pressed to that first fraction. Looking at the form is there any indication that the 4 would even follow a 22.4 that closely. For what its worth PRX seemed to be favouring early speed all weekend.
Yes that 22.4 probably did Jimmy in. What would have happened had he run in the low 23's.

Pook