Matchup Challenge May 23/24 by Pete C
 

Pete

Saturday at Arlington
 

Let's take a shot at the opener on the Saturday card at Arlington....

Sunday
 

....And the 6th race at Golden Gate on Sunday...

Late entrant
 

HI,
I am interested in trying this competition even though I am late. I would be competing for the fun of it.So, if its ok by you all I will start with Saturdays 1st at AP.
I see #6 Chatito's top paceline eliminating earlies #2,7,8, but the 6 may not get the open 1 length lead that he needs to win. Reluctantly I shift to pressers.
Among the pressers #1 looks to be out of form,#3 looks to be slow,leaving me with the 4 and 5.
If I redo the race using only turf and artificial pacelines I get the 5 as the only one moving on the 6. Also the 5 has a win off 21.3 44.3
So my choice is the 5.`

Hey welcome to our group man. Lots of time, not too late. Nice matchup thinking too. Good luck and have fun!

Pook

arlington.....ill be on a speed and a closer here win plays......#4......#8

golden gate.......will have hot pace to run at from rail...hot connections,likes track and distance #1 just after sunset

Ap r1
 

Speed group get eliminated - OTE Win

5/23/2105 Race 1 Arlington Park

Projected pace 21.8 44.8 also FPLR from the 6 horse

The 1 and 3 are just slow horses and I threw them out. The 2 I eliminated because I think he is an early horse that will not get the lead.

There are three comparable earlies the 6, 7 and 8, and I believe they will eliminate each other. The 8 has won with a faster 2nd call time, but it looks like he needs to have at least a 2 length lead to wire the field, and will not have that. This race should run OTE which leaves just the 4 and 5 as contenders.

Four races back the 5 ran against this pace, and won. His last race was the first time at the track, and the two before that were a bit slower. The 4 hasn't run to this pace yet, but looks like he will be ahead of the 5 when the leaders tire.

My picks are the 4 and the 5

5/23 Race 1 AP:

Interesting race Pete. Because AP has only been open a week or so, I had to use some dirt races to match these horses. I tried to use poly or turf whenever possible.

It looks like the 6, 7, and 8 are all early. I used the 6's 21.3 44.3 in the last line as the pace. I think the race will run OTE because the 8 ran 21.4 6 races back.

The 1,3,4, and 5 are either too slow or get too far behind.

This leaves me with the 2 who showed an off the pace effort against a 21.4 5 races back and held his position against a 21 43.3 on the grass at HAW.

The 2 is my choice to win the race.

Tim

AP1.

4 Earlies. 2 has run from 4th and fought for lead at stretch. Keep 2 as OTE. Throw out others.

OTE. 3 and 5 look like they both want to be too close to the front. Looking for a Presser from 5th, 6th or 7th.

Bet 2 and 4 to win.

GG 6th on Sunday
 

On Golden Gate's 6th, May 24th:

This is automatic for me:
I see #3 Romance as a lone early so it is my first choice.
Fr a second horse I would choose the only horse that goes second to first,#2,The Gang and I.

Arlington
 

Scratch 4 and 5....

Sorry guys...
 

The 5 was the reason I picked this race. I typically don't pursue races with so many horses coming from different surfaces but it seemed like a likely OTE scenario with the 2,6 7 and 8 all early, especially the 6 running wild fractions last time. The best OTE runner against today's pace was the 5.

Now, with the 5 out, I am left with the 1 and 3 as OTE contenders. Positionally the 3 will probably be too close to that early group early, so I will take the 1.

I am going early

6 wire to wire

My picks 6 and 3

Result
 

Mike does it again as the fastest of the earlies gets the job done, just nosing out Tim's 2 horse. Well done. Mike I am impressed how you continue to "stay in the zone"...

Final PP's w/ ML
 

Here are the final PP's for tomorrow's race...

Gg r6
 

MO congrats, you are on fire. My first 20 race cycle is nothing to talk about. Hope the second will show improvement.

Early
Pace 23 - 47
Win: 3 - 6

See attached workup.

Golden Gate Race 6 5/24

My projected pace would be the 3's last race 22.9 46.9 1:05.2 (22.4 46.4 1:05.1 in fifths)

I think the 3 will win wire to wire, but there is a chance for the 2 and the 5 to compromise her. Both the 2 and 5 have run up close to a 46.9, but both times were slightly slower first quarters. The 7 finished ahead of the 3 in their tandem race, but the 3 was severely pressured through the first two calls. I don't think the 3 will be pressed as much here. The 1 and 7 also raced in a tandem race where the 1 won against a fast pace. I do not think the pace will be fast enough for the 1 to make up the difference, but she just might.

My win bets will be 3 and 1.

GG 6

3 is Lone Early. Only has to stay 1L ahead of 6 at 23 47.

OTE. I don't see any Pressers. 5 is only S that gains 1st to 2nd against slow.

Bet 3 and 5 to Win.

Sunday
 

Easy to spot the pacesetter here. The 3 fought and faded against 22.4 last time. Without other e's here, I decided to use line 3 for today's pace 23.2. Against this slow pace there are still no others that like to go for the lead early, so I will take the 3 to win.

GG #6:

I'm going to use the last line on the 3 as the pace at 5.5 furlongs; 22.4 46.4 58.4. I just don't think the 3 can beat these that can run against a 22.0 and make a move in the race. Mt contenders are the 1 and the 7. I think the 7 will be closer than the 1 and should turn the tables on the tandem 2 back.

The 7 is my choice to win the race.

Tim

The 3 will set the pace, 7 and 5 should be in decent press position.

My pick 7 and 5

Sunday
I see the opening quarter around 22.3. I see the 3 wiring the field.
3 for the win.

Pook

Result
 

Mowens hits it again, along with ChuckG... Great job guys!