Matchup Challenge Apr 18/19 by Mowens33
 

Your turn again Mike.

CT Classic
 

Gentlemen, let’s give the CT Classic a go!

Can Shared Belief be beat in this race???????????

Thoughts on Charles Town?
 

I don't know much about CT. I had the impression that it was a bullring. Do the big shakers in the sport normally run here?

Bill Lyster you're a western guy familiar with all things on the coast. We have Shared Belief beating California Chrome who then goes over and comes 2nd in Dubai against the best in the world. Shared Belief gets to go to Charles Town? He doesn't even get to pass GO and collect $200:eek: Is racing at SA not a world of difference from CT?

Pook

I think a purse of $1,500,000 is like a gift vs who he is competing against. Moreno appears to be only competition. there are a couple of 40K claimers and some grade 3 types. I expect not much more than a paid workout worth between $900K or $300K depending on whether he is first or 2nd.

My guess its just a filler in between the graded races on derby or preakness day.

thats my 2 cents worth anyway.

HOWEVER, that being said, last year Imperative upset Game on Dude at 26.5:1. Imperative did not do much before or after that race, so who knows. Note also that win pays $1,000,000 and place pays $245,000 using last years info.

Imperative since that race has lost convincingly to Shared Belief 4 times, but who knows if he is a "horse for the course"??

That is quite interesting!

I noticed something else while comparing Beyers to RDSS speed numbers. Last race..
Shared Belief 111 Beyer, next best is General ARods 104 Beyer
Shared Belief 83 Adj Trackmaster SR, General ARods is 93 Adj Trackmaster SR

Thats quite a difference in opinion.

I will jump in the deep end with this Match Up thing :)

The running styles I have:
1 Sustained though he did win from a pressing position
2 Presser
3 Early
4 Presser
5 Sustain
6 Early
7 Presser
8 Early
9 Presser

I have this race running OTE, and so the 3, 6, and 8 are out as win contenders. The projected pace I found was the 6 from the Breeders' Cup Classic with the 1/2 in 46.4 and the 3/4 in 1:10.2 (I don't if that is too far back to project the pace from) Of the non-early horses the 5 and the 9 do not seem to be able to handle this kind of pace. The 1 has run against this pace and won, as has the 2. Of these two I believe the 2 is the better option. That leaves just the 2 and the 4. Based on the mile times of both horses I think the 2 will get to the 1/8 pole first, and the 4 will be right behind.

My win bets would be on the 2 and 4. I hope I did this right.

And of course the majority of the betting public will be blinded by that glorious 111 Beyer!. Me too maybe...

Pook

Welcome GeorgeC5614! You presented perfectly.

Good Luck,
Pook

well, to me it looks chalky...my plays are.......6-4

#6 moreno 7/2...looks to be the the speed...3rd off the layoff..gets 5 lbs from shared belief. with these bull ring turns...e and eps rule...gets the lead and lasts...will have to hold off shared belief

Interesting article by Jay Hovdey in the DRF today on the issues around this race.

Early

Not much betting here
 

Congrats to all winners last weekend. Pook thanks for the complement, much appreciated. Cannot place a win bet on two horses. Fave should pay $2.20. If #4 scratch replace #3.

I've also include the workup on the PDF.

Have
 

to go with the 6-7 just in case shared belief falls down, not much else to say

Bob

Sundays Race (SA 5)
 

SF, this one should be right up your ally!

I'm going to pass the race from CT today. I'll look at the race from SA tomorrow.

Tim

id like to add, this is a short stretch to if im not mistakin....

santa anita ..i will go to the lone presser here #1

#1 spud spivens...takes drop in class..rail trip..top late pace #

#4 chasinthe aces....should be alone on lead

Just for the record I will take the 4 and 8, the best presser (4) and maybe an early horse that might outfoot the other earlies, plus it has won here at CT before.

Shared Belief ventures out of Southern California for the first time. I think they picked a tough race for that. Although he is by far the best horse in the field, I think he is facing a tough matchup here. There is not a lot of speed for him to run against. So he will have to be a little closer to the front than normal to have a chance. I am uncomfortable betting horses that may be out of their comfort zone. Moreno should get the front end. However, he may be comprised by the poorly handled Vyjack. I have a lot of respect for Rudy Rodriguez and he is a friend of mine but as I told him in Saratoga last year, this horse should not be running further than a mile. Therefore if Shared Belief falters at all, I think that longshot Warrioroftheroses can pick up the pieces. Bet 1 unit on #8 to win and 1 unit on 4,8/2,4,6,8 in the exacta. Bet two units on 4,8 exacta box.

Sunday's SA race
 

I like the 7; beat the 2 handily two back, has a win and place at 7f and can rate. The 2-3-4 and 6 all look early. the 7 is lightly raced has 3 wins and 3 places from 9 starts.

7 only

Matchup
 

Good luck today guys, I will pass on today's race and probably take a peek at tomorrow's a little later...

Can't Share The Belief
 

Can't bet on him. Can't bet against him. So I will pass.

Santa Anita Sunday
 

I narrowed the field down to 1,4,6,7. I am going to go with the 6 Got Even as I think he has the best finishing kick. This is a pretty good betting race as I think that the field will be pretty tight at the 3/8ths pole but I do think the 6 will pull away in the final 1/16th. Good luck everybody.

Re the CT Classic - I will not play this race in the Contest - too little payout likely on Shared Belief, and hard to bet against him, even on this new track (for him).

However - Moreno: one of my favourite horses running now, and one of my best 'cash cows' (er, cash horses :)) He is just such a determined professional on the front end! Whenever he is disrespected and allowed to go at more than say 5-1, I have put a 1-2-4 unit structured W-P-S wager on him and made good money even when he is running against monster odds on favourites (e.g. SB in the SA Handicap, Palace Malice in last year's Whitney) Alas, I doubt he'll be much more than 4-1 despite SB being likely Odds on, and may not pay more than $3 and change to Place or Show if SB wins as in the SA Handicap (I'd prefer a bit more).

So in this Win only ROI contest, I'll pass this race - for the above reasons. But will definitely be watching watching these 2 great horses!


Pook - the TrackMaster SR (and not the RDSS Adjusted SR) last race for each of Shared Belief and General Arod were 109 and 112 respectively. Not sure which numbers you are citing above. Even given that modest 112 superiority of GA, considering the relative class of the races where these were earned, I am not too concerned.

If you meant the RDSS Adjusted SR (and not the TrackMaster SR), using any kind of DTV Adjustment setting, I couldn't get GA's SRs anywhere close to SBs ... :confused:

Good luck to all!

Ted

Ted these are my screens. I have default adjustment settings as far as I know.

OOOOOEEEEE look at those odds! If any of you contrarians connect LOOK OUT!

Oooh, that's a big 'sucking' sound of a LOT of money vaporizing on Shared Belief. I hope he is OK ...

:(

Ted

Well, as described above, I did bet that 1-2-4 WPS on Moreno. Nice payday, if no inquiries ...

Ted

I hope he's okay too. I hope you bet your Moreno.

Pook

I can see the jumpers heading for the bridge!

My ADW would't let me play place and show, but I did have a win bet.

Mike

Nice one Mike and the others that had Moreno!

Pook

I did. A perfect storm ...

10 Win 20 Place 40 Show.

Attachment 38813

Attachment 38812

Moreno sets a new CT 9f track record.

Ted

Awesome Ted! You should have had confidence in him for the contest. Course I couldn't bet against SB either.

Pook

I guess it was the bridge jumpers that caused the distorted payoffs.

Absolutely - a small amount of money on the ITM horses collecting all that huge Show pool money on SB.

Pook, you're right - I should have had confidence! Consolation cash ...;)

Ted

(P.S. I'll get back to you on those SRs.)

Congratulations Charlie (gandalf), Mike (mowens) and Kevin (KBROD)!

Ted

Ted, it pays sometimes to look at the place and show pool.

Nice play!

SA #5 7 furlongs:

It looks like there are early routers here; 3 and the 6. 3 can fight a bit but is slower than 6. 4 hasn't shown anything since maiden race. The 7 has run well in last 3. Last time, he had trouble at the start and won by 1L from the 3rd position at first call which is where I think he'll be today.

The 7 is my choice to win the race.

Good Luck,

Tim