11/12 Tdn R#7: Practice Race
 

Let's go to Thistledown for our next Match-Up practice race...

I like the 1 (Low price) with the 9 and 7.
If I get at least 7 to 1 I would take a short on the 7

TDN 7 Nov 12
 

Using Mind's Eye steps this time.

Scroll through each horse PP starting at the bottom.
Separate Early from OTE.
If horse is Early, mark the fastest first call time that she gets the lead and finishes close to the winner.

Using only Run-style sort and 1st call will race be won by an Early horse or OTE?

Attachment 38419

Here I have 5 Es. 1 2 3 5 run side by side at 22.1
6 is too slow.

Race will run OTE.

Looking for OTE that will stay away from the 4 Earlies, run 5th or further back, pass horses against 22.1, gain position and lengths 2nd to Str.

Attachment 38420

8 Lusty

Thistledown 7TH
 

This is a good one. I will try again.

This will run ote.

1- E out

2- E out

3- E headed out

4- S out to slow

5- S out to slow

6- E out to slow

7- EP out to slow

8- S I went back to 6th race back 22 45.3 58.2 104.4

9- S in the same race as 8. 3rd by 21/2

With all the early speed in this race to kill each other out. I would place
my win bets on the 8 and 9

My thoughts on this race:

When I looked at this race initially, it looked to me like the 1,2, and 3 are early. I decided to use the tandem race for the 1,2,3,5,6,8, and 9 as the pace.

Pace: 22.1 45.4 59.0 1:05.2 Because it is 5.5 furlongs, I added 6 2/5 seconds to the 5 furlong call.

Here are the horses:

1: E/P against winners. Contender
2: E This is the problem child. The guy who claimed him saw that she runs well off a layoff. Won 1st out at Tdn. Forgiving the previous two races (my achilles heel is forgiving too many bad races) which were run on turf and a sloppy track, I'm down to the 4th race back which was a very good one at Mth. Pace went 22.0 45.3 58.3 fighting. Also ran against those fractions at GP in maiden score closing from 2nd position. If she can run those fractions here, she's going to be tough to beat. The problem here is Mth is 2 seconds faster at 6F than Tdn. I hate to penalize horses coming from better tracks. Contender.
3: E. I think she'll get the lead. Needs to be loose in 22.3. Not going to happen. Out.
4: S Good race two back. No confirming race. Out.
5: She was lost in tandem. Out.
6: Trouble at start in tandem. Did nothing. No pace in any other like the tandem. Out.
7: Only time she ran well against fast pace was in maiden win. Out.
8: Closed up in tandem race from middle position but not enough to my liking. Ran against fast paces at Ind which is a very fast track. I don't trust the fractions there. Out.
9: Ran close in tandem. She is a P type which is going to hurt here chances. Out.

Analysis: There are a lot of unknowns here. As you can see, I don't like the sustained horses her. If I were to pick a horse, I would pick the 2. This is a race I would pass.

Tim

In this race I like the #1 to win the race. I think he can go wire to wire. If I would play 2horse in this race I would take #1,#9 to win.

emilio

Early Horses:
1,2,3,5,6

OTE Horses:
4,9,7,8

Pace:
22.1,45.4 from tandem

Pace Scenario:
Looks to be tightly fought early with much of the same speed from the tandem. Therefore I see the winner from OTE. After throwing out the Earlies we are left with the only two formful OTE's (4,9). 9 was the best tandem finisher. 4 has a pace line two back with a power move against a faster pace than todays projected one.

Conclusion:
(4,9) to win.

I agree with Emilio that the race will run early and #1 will wire the field.

2 and 3 can duel for lead with 1 pressing in 22.0 - 45.3 - 58.3. Favor the 1 and toss the 2 and 3.

The other E, the 6 is too slow and the 5 is out of form. The 4 is 2/30 with lots of 2nds and 3rds. Except for the one Fonner park sprint outing which I will not accept, this S type is out for me. Could hit board in lower places due to # of E's in here.

The 7 ran evenly last out, but it was first out this track, so I am inclined to forgive and go down to line 5. Two wins for this horse come from 4th and 3rd which fits this race. I think this one could be in the lead by the stretch call

The 8 and 9 are pressers. The 8 looks out of form and/or slow and the 9 closes from 3rd or 4th, but could be a little slow for this group.

For me the race sets up for the 7, with lots of respect for the 1 (the least experienced, but perhaps most accomplished horse in the race, with 2 wins in 4 races

7-1-9 are my choices.

The early horses for me are the 1,2 and 3.I think the 1 is capable of going all the way.
My projected pace is 22.1-45.2-59.1.
I picked line 4 for horse #7 and he might catch the 1 at the end.The 9 is just a tad slower looking at his time but he's also a contender.
Horses to win are #1 and #7.

Low-priced, easy win...
 

Here is the chart. The ML favorite gets bet WAY down and wins easily. No big money, but some good practice nonetheless. Congrats to the matchers who made the call...For teaching purposes, I'm going to take the liberty of outlining the process they may have gone through in order to get the winner. I know there are several new matchers out there that really want to learn this.

Anyone who got this race, please feel free to expand on your initial post, or add/correct anything that I say...

Look at the last race tandem for the 1,3,5,6,8 and 9. The 9 wins the tandem by a head over the 8. The 1 (an E/P) sits off the 3 at 1C, moves up to fight at 2C and moves past the 3 at the SC. At that point it is also fighting with another horse not in today's race. It goes on to barely lose out to the 9.

The 1 looks to be able to pass the 3 when it wants. So now, IMO, you're left to decide at this point whether to go Early (and take the 1) or OTE (and start matching the 9 to the others). Look at the other earlies in this race and compare their POR's with the tandem 22.1 45.4....

#2, last line 22.3 47.0 Slow
#3 Already know the 1 can pass when it wants...
#6, had a terrible start in the tandem, so we'll look at L2 23.1 47.2, L3 22.3 47.1 Both slow

Looking at those lines the 1 stands out and the race goes early.

Big thanks to the "veteran matchers", for sharing their matching skills in these races too. They could be leading these posts just as easily as me. I know that their posts are helpful for anyone in the early stages of learning the match-up. All the best everyone, I'll look for another race for you soon...

Maybe it’s just semantics but I labeled this race OTE. I had the 1 horse that shows early (E), but it was my opinion that the 3 would go to the lead. I had the 1 picking up the leader, so even though the one was an (E) I labeled the race OTE.

As I am reading what I am writing I should have labeled this race Early?

Mike

Hi Pete,

I guess to be convinced to go OTE you should be sure that the earlies are very evenly matched or that there are a ton of them.

This is fun. I have never had such insight into my races as when doing matching. Even when I lose I understand why and am not usually that far off. I spend a lot of time reading Richie P's posts and am learning much from these races. My ROI has skyrocketed as a result.

Thanks
Pook

***Pook- I had a similar reaction to yours when Richie first started teaching the Match-Up here. Before that, for whatever reason, I was just not able to put the concepts in The Hat's books to practical use. Richie presented it in a way that I could see and use. I will always be grateful for that. Keep up the good work!

***Mike: I noticed that you labeled the 1 horse as E. I agree this horse leads or tries for the lead each time it runs. It also shows that it can win from 2nd at the 1C. I will call the race Early if I pick one of my E's or E/P's, even in this case where it looked like the 3 might be in front of the 1 early on. That's just my own style. You saw the same thing and called it OTE which technically it is. Just be sure to only throw out the single horse you think will get the early lead. Make sure you still evaluate the other E's and E/P's if they can show that they can win or run well without the lead. You did that in this case and found the 1 horse as your top pick. Well done. As you keep going with this you'll just to start to feel things in today's match-up. Richie's Mind's Eye teachings stress that we should trust those feelings and react quickly to them...Keep it up!