Pace and Cap  - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up

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-   -   M4$ Mar26 Challenge9 (RichieP) (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10391)

The Pook 03-22-2016 02:43 PM

M4$ Mar26 Challenge9 (RichieP)
 
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Challenge9

The Pook 03-22-2016 02:45 PM

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The Match4Cash
is Suffering.
But relief is on its way,

RichieP is Posting
If only for a day.

The Pook 03-22-2016 02:48 PM

RichieP has kindly volunteered to relief post
to try and help us get past our CHALKBLOCK
of 8 Challenges with 7 single-digit prices

The Pook 03-22-2016 02:51 PM

He stressed however that he is not playing at this time. Just giving our posting schedule a little rest with some Richie-Seltzer to try and relieve our chalky constipated feeling.

The Pook 03-22-2016 03:03 PM

If anyone is thinking of joining this game there are only two challenges left before the final table is set with a guaranteed minimum $500 prize. Patrick the truck driver has informed me twice that he wants in. He hasn't actually entered though, as of yet, so I can't add him to the pot.
Thanks Richie for stepping in. Remember if you yield to the temptation to work your own posting and reply with an entry.....you're in!

Good Skill All,
Pook

RichieP 03-24-2016 04:25 PM

Tampa Bay Downs, Saturday March 26th, Race 11
 
3 Attachment(s)
Hi Matchers and thanx Pook for letting me post one up for you :)

Let's go to Tampa Bay Downs Saturday and head to the turf for their 11th race on the card - Scheduled post time is 5:20 PM Eastern.

Race is 8f on the grass and here is the Entry/Dashboard screen along with the Tandem screen

RichieP 03-24-2016 04:30 PM

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Horses 1-5

RichieP 03-24-2016 04:34 PM

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Horses 6-10

RichieP 03-24-2016 04:36 PM

4 Attachment(s)
Horses 11-14

RichieP 03-24-2016 04:38 PM

Best of luck/ skill everyone and hopefully someone can post up the scratches Saturday, not sure where I will be.

Thanx again!

RichieP 03-26-2016 07:47 AM

In case Tampa is rained out off the turf
 
2 Attachment(s)
Good morning gang,

I saw that late yesterday they were off the turf at Tampa and they are calling for rain today. So here is an alternate race if they are off the turf at Tampa.


Santa Anita - March 26th - Race 9 - post is 7:30 PM Eastern

Race entries/ Dashboard and Tandems

RichieP 03-26-2016 07:50 AM

5 Attachment(s)
Horses 1-5

RichieP 03-26-2016 07:54 AM

5 Attachment(s)
Horses 6-10

cigar 03-26-2016 02:05 PM

Tam 11
 
Pace: 24.1 - 48.1 - 112
OTE

Win 8-10

With all the Scratches 1-3-4-9-11-12-13-14 the race is void of speed which leave 2 and 6 to set the pace hence the 112.

good luck all

Pat C. 03-26-2016 02:06 PM

I will take an early plunge since this race is still on the turf. Probably will be Yielding.
Most of the early speed is scratched.
I am looking at about a 24.2 - 48.3 pace
I think this race will run OTE.
The #6 should get the lead and if uncontested by the #3, could go all the way.
The #7 is my best sustained horse
The #10 will be close up, but does not like to win unless on the lead.

My first choice will be #7
Will also go with #6 just in case.

RichieP 03-26-2016 03:32 PM

Tampa Bay Scratches
 
Scratches are the 1,4,9,11,12,13,14. The #3 is racing, just a change of jockey

Turf is showing "good".

Ted Craven 03-26-2016 04:26 PM

The 3-10 Tandem will be the pace at 23.9 48.9. #6 cannot keep up with that and is having problems staying lately, so out.

#8 can close against the above pace and is best EPR and a Presser.
#10 is a good EP with best LPR rating!

So: #8 and #10 for me!

Good luck all!

Ted

mowens33 03-26-2016 05:07 PM

ESP 1ST 2ND CONTENDER Comments
46.5 70.4
1 P may go hard early? Distance an issue OUT
2 SP slow OUT
3 S C pace match, like track and distance
4 S decent match, like others
5 SP C good pace match on turf, wildcard?
6 P C pace match, like track and distance
7 E should be on pace-speed duel shaping up OUT
8 E should be on pace-speed duel shaping up-poor trak record OUT
9 E good last,should be on pace-speed duel shaping up OUT
10 EP C needs to press, tough post, may get caught up with pace?

Going OTE will go with the 6 and 5

The Pook 03-26-2016 05:22 PM

Tampa 11

Rich a bit of the soul has been taken out of your race with all the scratches but lets see. 3 and 6 are my Earlies which seem even from raw times. They both wire win only. They are compromised I think.
2,7,8,10 can win OTE although the 10 has technically only wired for a win. Taking pace from the 3...24/49/113 and change. 2,7,8,10 have handled faster paces. So my order of preference is 10,7,8,2 depending on odds. The odds could be screwed up from the morning lines.

Wait for odds...
Pook

gandalf380 03-26-2016 05:28 PM

Tampa 11
 
I would like to join if it is ok.

#6 is early speed and has a solid work in prep for this. #10 is a very nice closer so my picks are 6 and 10

Capcondo 03-26-2016 05:28 PM

Thanks for posting this Richie.

With the scratches, there is very little speed here. Since the 3 has made the lead against sprinters, I think he'll get the lead in similar fractions of 23.4 48.4 1:13.1. The tandem horse is the 10 who is also a contender.

I don't think the pace will be fast which rules out the 2, 5, 7, and 8 who have only won against a fast pace.

So, I think it comes down to the tandem. The 3 couldn't hold off the 10 last time when he got a nice pedestrian pace.

So, my choice is the 10. If the 10 gets pounded at the windows, you'll get a pass from me with 2 minutes to post.

Good luck.

Capcondo 03-26-2016 05:47 PM

I've seen enough. The 10 is 6/5. I'll pass.

The Pook 03-26-2016 05:53 PM

Tampa 11

8,2

Pook

RichieP 03-27-2016 07:36 AM

Tampa Bay Results
 
1 Attachment(s)
Well I have offered no help in stopping the chalk parade as the #10 wins at a $4.40 mutual. Congrats to Cigar, Ted and Gandolf380 (new shooter!!!) for the win!

I put the race up because I "knew" the #10 would be favored and I had to bet against him with 3 other speeds inside of him signed on. Granted 1 of them scratched out but with the way he won don't think it would have mattered a bit.
I loved the #2, bet him in a 1 horse bet(usually I am now betting 2 with real money) and will bet him again next time that race shape shows up.

Hey thanx again Pook for letting me post one up and I hope everyone has a great Easter Sunday!

cigar 03-27-2016 02:32 PM

After taught
 
Thanks Richie for the post, your insight is and always welcome. Look forward to future post and feel free to chime in with your taught even if its post race synopsis.

Welcome Gandalf380.

Richie: my original pick if the speed had not scratched was #5-7. With the scratches I felt the #5 and #7 will have too much to do. My original pace line was: 23.5 - 47.4 - 111.9. I am including a workup comments for each entry. Any feedback is welcome.

TAM R11
1 - too close to fast pace - out
2 - need to be close up to win, not today - out
3 - not fast enough - out
4 - long layoff - out
5 - *Contender
6 - need 2 length to win, will not get - out
7 - Contender
8 - contender
9 - slow - out
10 - too close to pace - out
11 - speed - out
12 - ? 7 days rest - out
13 - up in class - out
14 - slow out

win 5-7


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