Ernie? I'll only be Ernie if you'll be Bert. Together we'll sing some Sesame Street songs...

"L" is such a lovely letter
It stands for licorice and lace
The letter "L" lights up your face
C'mon and "la-la-la-la-la" with me.

Bill,

I would use the first line - 60 days ago.

I do not use lines where the horse was never "in the race" and got beat by less than 7.75 lengths.I do not look at speed ratings
Naturally, I use races where the horse ran 1st,2nd or 3rd
I use lines where the horse showed early speed and got beat by more than 7.75 lengths

Great post For the Lead, but aren't these beaten lengths backwards? In other words, the horse must have been within 7.75 lengths at finish in order for you to use that line? Very interesting breakdown of win percentages based on which line was used!

Nope! I wrote it exactly the way I meant it and you read it correctly.

Consider this;

horse "A" is just floundering around the track showing nothing, but ends up 5th beaten 7 lengths. Do you think that is a good race? Do you really want to use that race to evaluate the horses chances today just because it was beat less than 7.75 lengths?

horse "B" leads the field past the second call and backs up from there getting beat by 10 lengths at the finish.

which horse has shown you that it is coming to form?

And early speed horse that backs up will give you all the final time you need if it is in a race it can win, whether it backed up in its' last race or not!

Pace of the Race
 

Hi For The Lead

What was the Pace of the Race?

Horse A is just floundering around the track and finishes
7 back OK. If the pace of the race is slow then his speed rating will be slow
and even if you use the line with 7 BL The line will rank the horse low on BLBL with little corollary support or probably not be in the top 5 of
total energy or primary line score so its a hide anyway
RDSS/VAL 4 are not velocity programs Its THE MATCH UP
Its not the pace of the horse Its the Pace of the RACE it ran against
that gets the readouts

I agree with Davenew I put in the line and let the program algorithms
match up the race Talk about Garbage In Garbage out is very important
in Velocity programs but Doc and Jim wrote energy programs
that take care of one move horses And slow horses ( against the pace of race) Its the match up

Thank you for your insight on your line selection and contender methods

Bill

There was no pace of race.
There was no race.
It was a hypothetical of two different horses.
Maybe not even in the same race.
It was about one line that is usable and one line that is not usable.
It was about FORM, that goes along with velocity, energy or the match up, which ever method you are using.

You need to know what impact the PACE OF RACE had on horse A and B performances.


Looking at all lines gives you the horses "Picture" this picture tells you if Pace of Race had a impact on where the horse finished. If TODAYS POR is the same, there is a very high probablity the result will be the same.



As stated Earlier. One line only tells you how a horse performed in ONE race. How the hell can you evaluate (hypothetical or otherwise) a horses ability using just ONE line.

Plus
 

Hi For The Lead

In your two horse example I would see horse A as having a zero race
The Sartin Methodology guidelines for form cycle analysis is to do
your Plus, Plus within a Zero , and Zero markings for each horse

So Horse A would get a ZERO and that line should not be used
So I would move down to the next most recent line and take
the best speed rating of the last three Doc shows in follow Up #70
an example of when Line 3 is good but lines 2 and 1 are zero bad
only then he will not Blindly use the third line
Attachment 20675

And of course we have the Black Border Warning from Follow Up 76
Attachment 20676
Now In the second case Horse B is showing something. It Is involved in the Pace of the race . but fades So horse B gets a Plus within a zero line
In the Sartin Methodology This horse is showing something in form
and using a Plus line in the next two comperable pacelines is valid
Good example Thanks

Scan
 

That is correct Charlie That is why what works in the methodology
is the match up. If you start from bottom to top or top line to bottom and do a Plus, Plus within a Zero and Zero markings, You will see a picture of the horses ability. You will see what speed rating and Pace of Race it run Plus ratings against and when it runs poorly against the Pace of Race

Bill

If we had a clapping emoticon i'd use it, because the above is spot on imho.