it has been working for years. For a long while I was one of those slavish adhering to the rules (total energy for one) and upon review, found this "hidden structure" that kept repeating. Epiphany time.

Nice work
Bill and Tompkins
good to see your work in action
Thanks
Bill

Lets Do It Again - Pha 10-21-06 (All Races)
 

Tompkins has contributed some very valuable information that should be explored by those that truly want to win.
In an effort to further prove his research, I've once again incorporated it into my method and the software that I use. Today, at PHA there are some sustained varigate type races that should prove to be interesting.
I can, and without hesitation, say that it works well on an early varigate.

As most of you know, I am a one horse win bettor.
The top horse would be my choice.
Here's todays PHA.

Race -1
1 - (2)
-------
2 - (4)
3 - (3)

Race -2
1 - (7)
-------
2 - (4)
3 - (1)

Race - 3
1 - (2)
-------
2 - (5)
3 - (4)

Race - 4
1 - (4)
-------
2 - (1)
3 - (2)

Race - 5
1 - (3)
-------
2 - (7)
3 - (5)

Race - 6
1 - (5)
-------
2 - (2)
3 - (1)

Race - 7
1 - (6)
-------
2 - (7)
3 - (2)

Race - 8
1 - (1)
-------
2 - (6)
3 - (2)

Race - 9
1 - (1)
-------
2 - (7)
3 - (4)
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soemtimes it just hard to believe
 

Passed this race for odds. But the internal structure of energy distribution comes to pass even better when it is wet. Look how this "bias" overwhelms total energy.

4th race - Fort Erie - October 21, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1A Cousin Pam 3.30 3.40 2.50
1 One Way Lady 3.30 3.40 2.50
4 Parisian Princess 5.60

$2 Triactor 1-4-5 39.30
$2 Exactor 1-4 16.20

another splizacta
 

7th race - Fort Erie - October 21, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
5 Driving Ms Chelsea 7.30 4.50 3.20
6 Reputed Deeds 4.00 2.90
2 Dance Slightly 3.60

$2 Triactor 5-6-2 78.80
$2 Exactor 5-6 26.20

top two e/l's often finish one three

2 Out Of 9 At PHA For A Small Loss
 

Today we had 6 straight losses at PHA. WE finally won the 7th and 8th
race.
We wound up with 28% winners which resulted in a very small loss.

fron LONG experience with this angle, the 2nd best e/l often wins more than the top one, which often finishes third.

Brohammer ????
 

From what I am led to believe, this angle came from Tom Brohammer.
In fact, from what I observe, it is the total energy broken down into early and late pace.EXAMPLE 85 89 which indicates a late runner and would have a difference of -4. So indeed, there is a direct relationship between
the total energy and the difference numbers. If one were to use accurate speed points and accurate running styles, I believe they could get a better handle on this angle by eliminating horses whose running styles do not fit the specific race. By using the speed point and running style method you would involve yourself in lots of work because these numbers have to be as accurate as possible. I can say without any hesitation, that there is no software or data supplier that can support
these speed points and running styles in a truly accurate manner.
For the most part, when a race sets up early, an early type will win and visa versa.
There is a progam that was endorsed or written by Brohammer called MPH that has the early and late pace broken down by energy. This program also takes the Trackmaster files but they have to be converted to a DRF file through a program called Axlate which for the most part will not run if you have a Windows XP operating system.

As for todays PHA, I kept a tally of first, second and third choices.
First choice won twice out of 9 races for about 22% (I stand corrected)
I originally posted 28%.
Second choice won only once for 9 %
Third choice was best and won 3 times 33%
The total top three choices won 70% of the time.

28 -33% on single horse picks that win is the goal I try to achieve.

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Me
 

Hey Guys,
Look this board is kind of my dream of a Follow Up for
today. The follow Ups we all hopefully read are full of methods
sent in by clients. Doc would print them.
If they work for you thats the main important thing.
However you must realize that everyone picks contenders and pace
lines differently

I do two things with this method's posted screen shots and posted payoffs

First I look at the winners price.
Second I look at the total energy readout
When I see for example $7.00 horses with total energys rankings higher than 5 and horses with 2 or 3 lines with lower total energy
I know something is odd
If I see something I will check the pace lines that were used in the screen shot.
Tompkins uses many lines for each horse and uses what he wants.
Many times I disagree with theses lines, These are however not mine.
So I have no use for the method since I would most likely not
find myself rating a race with any method using these pacelines


gs
Bill

so
 

Don't use it then. I will keep posting how well it works, like HERE.

2nd race - Woodbine - October 22, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1 L'Argent 17.20 7.00 4.80
7 Woodland 4.00 2.70
8 Run Justin Run 3.30

it is PROJECTING improving early speed and slips "in between" the lines of classic computer readouts.