What is a "competitive paceline"??
 

** There have been 3-4 posts asking "what is a competitive finish". **

The honest answer is I can't tell you what it is. Neither can Jim(spoke with him extensively this morning). By working LOTS of races we develop our own INDIVIDUAL answer to this question. There is no clear cut "rule".

There IS right or wrong for us INDIVIDUALLY ok? Through practice and making incorrect evaluations we learn and adapt to what really works when looking at races BEFORE they run.

We are ALL going to make wrong calls.ALL of us.We can NOT learn if we do not make wrong choices. When we do our mind remembers and after a while will signal us (the little voice in our head man) when the situation arises again. Hopefully we are at peace working races quietly so we can HEAR it and then ACT on it.

If we are NOT working quietly we will not be "warned" and will continue to make the same mistake over and over and over again. I ****ed up yesterday on a bonehead call on a horse that was totally wrong. There was a bit of chaos here and I ****ed up a race BIG time. Wound up going off the horse,bet someone else and watched the original horse win at an unreal price. I mean UNREAL price.

It was all on ME not some "rule' I was following. I lost because I made a bad bad call/eval. I must take responsibility for SELF.

This is also Jim's Matchup.

Lou
FORGET the final call when matching horses.

The final call is a representation of what happened early on in the race. FOCUS your matching on the 1st call, 2nd call,stretch call.

Stay away from slow paced races. From them come slow ass horses. Kiss of death to the Hat.

Fast pace of races - Fast horses - Find These Lou ok? LOOK for them.

Good question man :)

asked and got help
 

Rich Thank you. This is what I see

ok add the last line on the 8 to what you have shown in the "code box".



2) Was the horse competitive in the fast paced race?
If you feel he was then THAT is your fastest sprinter.
Keep him and throw ALL other sprinters out of the race.
If you feel he was NOT competitive look to the next fastest sprinter and repeat process.

Yes Rich I do think the 8 was competitive in in the fast pace in line 1
22.3 45.1 and line 3 22.6 46.0
so I would say the 8 was the fast sprinter

Once we have identified the fastest sprinter
(remember now this is a route race with sprinters entered)
we will then move to the next step ok?

** Excellent Ragin! So now you have the 8 as the top sprinter.Throw all the other sprinters out now. Next step is coming! -RichieP **

OK Rich I should have listed better when you had said initially that you were taught to consider as to stretch outs: first measuring sprinters against sprinters. This was followed now by “keep the fastest sprinter and throw out the rest.” Now you measure I gather the routers as to their best times at the route distances.

These are the only contenders that I have with a route race to compare:
#1 48.2 - 1.14.1 3 3 3 3
#3 46.2 - 1.13. 4 3 2 2
#7 48.0 - 1.14.3 2 2 2 2
As to these particular routers it would be a win choice on the #3. I believe the #3 horse is in good condition and shows in its third race back, a grass race, that it could run faster against “today’s projected pace of 46 – 1.12.2.” The # 1 and #7 horses show nothing in their pp’s coming close to running well against a projected half of 1.12.2. In fact the #3’s chosen PL is a power-move pace line that is faster by 2 seconds at the first call and at least one second at the half. So now I have to reconsider my 2 win choices, since I still like the #8 horse, and change it from what I first started thinking when I had kept all of the sprinters in the race to now the #8 and the #3 horses for win considerations.

Robert

This looks like a great web site to share ideas and learn new things involving horse racing handicapping. I decided to join your group becouse I want to take my game to a higher level. Tired of just breaking even ( 2007 so far down $ 80 , 2006 lost $50, 2005 won $ 75) I play every weekend. I always have this feeling that I am about to bust out, then finding myself back to even kind of like a dream that I am just running in place , not getting anywhere.


Reading the posts in this section I have noticed that different people will give different running styles to the same horse. This is one area that I have been confused about, What running style should a horse be assigned when he has shown the ability to run and win running as both an early, Presser and sustain. Do you assign the most recent ? the most often or like jim crammer would do the furthest out.


Regarding what is a competitive race, my thought would be that a horse is running competitive when he is running within his running style, if he is an early horse a competitive race would be if he ran within a length for both the first 2 calls even if he falls apart in the stretch. A Presser runs a competitive race as long as he runs within a couple of lengths for most of the race, Sustain horses( example 8 or more beaten lengths at first call) for me I need to see them make a move in the stretch to be competive ( gain position and lengths) other wise they are just tagging along.

Mike.

*** Welcome Mike! Down here in Matchup country we will evolve into a very simple total of 2 running styles. Early - A horse who wins going wire to wire. Other than early - ALL other horses. Right now we are in the beginners learning phases so styles such as Early-early press-press-sustained are being used. Feel free to download Jim's 5 step approach to the matchup which you will find here in this forum ok? It will give you a bit of an idea of what we do in THIS forum. Again welcome! - RichieP ***

The Philly race con't
 

Back to the race at hand. We want to evaluate the sprinters here first. They are
the 2,4,6,8,9,10,11.

Of these only 2 horses are even worth a glance as the rest are ridiculously slow. Those 2 being the 8 and 10.

Here is a screen shot of the Power lines on the 2 horses. The 8 kills off the 10 so he is out.

The 8 remains as the fastest sprinter in this field.

SCRATCH the 2,4,6,9,10,11 from further consideration for the WIN. This is what we do. Throw horses out in bunches.

Now we shine the light on the routers and repeat the process. Here are the power lines of the routers. Who is the fastest? Then check the pp's on him and determine if he is still a horse able to compete or has he changed his style to that of a pig.

Our final step will be to match the winner of this screen shot (fastest router) against the #8 (fastest sprinter) to get our final selection. Step by step process which throws horses out in bunches.

I would say the #3 is the fastest router. I am looking forward to see how you compare the sprinter and the router.

Stan

Richie, When looking at Fast Pace races do you place any limits on how many beaten lenghts a horse has to be within the pace of this race in order to give him credit for this race? If a horse is beaten like 10 lenghts for the first 2 calls would you still credit him with this paceline i.e he is just a follower of fast horses ?.

Mike.

Mike
It's a feel thing man. Comes from looking at lots of races the same way over and over. With focused practice we will get most right but still miss a few no matter what we do.

Is there a specific horse here you were talking about?

Richie

Richie.


I wasn't looking at any particular horse just trying to set some parameters.

Fast pace races from what I understand it seems like you are first looking and giving the most credit to the 1rst call followed by the second call, do you give much or any to final time?


Hypothetical example concerning powerlines:

A: 22 45 113
B: 22.4 46.4 112

which would you choose as the fast pace race?

MIke.

Without question "A" Mike.

YES in that exact order Mike.

NONE Mike.

Ok excellent Stan. Here is a screen shot of the #8 and #3 power lines.

Final step:
Looking at both the pace of races shown and positions which horse is going to be ahead of the other during the running of the race? THAT is your horse.

Post by Mike 1121
 

If the A and B horses are facing each other today and the times listed are
typical of past performance, there is no way the B horse can come home in
112. The two earlier fractions are so much slower than the A horse it is
impossible for the B horse to come home any faster than 113.3 if that.

*** Right on the money Billy. *** RichieP

#8 has better positions and also better times at the first two calls. Do sprint first calls run a little faster that route first calls.
Stan


** Ok focus on your first sentence Stan. "better positions and better times". There is your answer bud! ** - RichieP

Richie.


Can the methods you are teaching be used successfully with 4 1/2 furlong races? What if any changes need to be made for this distance. I also like CT the only problem is that they have a lot of 4 1/2 f races.

Mike.

*** Mike the answer is YES. When Jim started teaching me he OFTEN worked races at the 4.5 distance from Charlestown.
I questioned him a couple of times about working that distance and his EXACT reply was " Rich it is just a darn horse race. We work em all the same ok" *** - RichieP

Stan
Here is the result chart ok?
Richie

I have not yet gone thru all the instructions concerning the match up, saying this I do see one pattern : horses who are at the back of the pack are usually thrown out.The most likely winner seems to be horses who can win with the lead or just off the lead ( 1 to 2 BL 1rst call). What situation needs to occur for a deep closer ( 8th, 9th position 10 or more BL 1rst call ) to be made the bet?.

Mike.

Projected Pace Question
 

Richie,

I got lost when you arrived at a number for Projected Pace.

How did you get those numbers? Would you please do the math "out loud?"

Also, how did you think the horses were going to run when you estimated the Projected Pace? How would you have called this race before the fact?

Lastly what was your reason for not including the #2 SS in the matchup.

Inquiring mind needs to know. :)

Thanks,
Buzz

Here is a screen shot describing my "disconnect" :eek:

Attachment 10380

Great question Mike.

The horse you describe here should be avoided in virtually all races. I am going to make a separate thread showing an example where the horse you mention is the bet ok?

It is going to involve a horse that makes a "Power Move" from that deep position at 1st call and gains MULTIPLE positions between calls:
a) 1st call to 2nd call
b) 2nd call to stretch call

We want to avoid like the plague horses that move only from the stretch call to finish.

I will go into more detail in your thread about the Power Move.

Richie

Projected pace looks like the #5 from it's last race - 46.3 - 111.4 (conv to 5ths)

The race to me looked to be won "early" by the 5 because the 1 didn't look fast enough to press early on. What was comforting was the fact that if something happened weird the 5 was also fast other than early.

The 2 is a slow turf horse - out

Richie,

Sorry to bug you again but please explain how you thought this through?

"Projected pace looks like the #5 from it's last race - 46.3 - 111.4 (conv to 5ths)"

What do you mean by "looks like"? Where are you looking? Is there some logic that you are using that I am missing?

Honestly I have no clue how you arrived at this decision.

"The race to me looked to be won "early" by the 5 because..."

What does "looked to be" mean?

"the 1 didn't look fast enough to press early on. "

"What does "look" mean?

How much is "fast enough"?

Again I don't see how you are arriving at these decisions. I am not trying to dispute you. I am only trying to think this through using your logic so I can do it in the future on my own.

Thanks,
Buzz

Excellent questions which will be answered honestly.

The words I used in that entire post were used on purpose and here is why.This forum represents Jim's concepts and as best I can do things HIS way of teaching me. The ONE thing I can promise everyone reading this forum is that ANYTHING I post is Jim's way without putting my own spin on things.

That last sentence is important because phrases like
"looks like"
"appears to be"
"doesn't look to be"

are EXACTLY what Jim would use when teaching me.He also did this with me from the beginning.

He wants our minds quiet(relaxed) and free of rigid things to look for when matching horses and races. I need to convey this to those wanting to learn.My choice of the phrases used was with purpose and if folks will TRUST in the process ongoing here they will benefit.

OK so what can be done NOW with the Aqueduct race posted here to help you while tying in with what I just posted?

THIS:

1) Get 10 minutes of totally quiet time set aside.

2) Read all my phrases quoted by Buzz first.

3) Go to the race pp's and begin scrolling the horses SLOWLY.Relax and just look:
a) Let your mind see who might go for the lead here.
b) Let your mind see who doesn't belong here (too slow)
c) Let your mind see who are the true contenders (FAST horses)
d) Let your mind see the ENTIRE horse's past performances
e) Let your mind see the ENTIRE horse's past performances

4) Close the past performances and look at the result chart.

5) Get up and walk away. Exercise is FINISHED. Do NOT return to the race. You do not have to. It is "stored" away already even if you do not think so.

This is Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw's Matchup.

2 from Aqueduct today
 

I'm playing Aqueduct on the phone with a paisan who runs a casino near here.

I loved 2 horses on the card man. I mean loved them.

As you will see I lost the first bet and cashed the 2nd one.To be honest the loss was an incorrect evaluation of the lines I stacked together.

I'll show both in case anyone wants to check them out.

Here is Aqueduct's 1st race where I loved and bet the #5 horse at 7/2.

2 from Aqueduct today
 

Here is the second spot play.


I loved and bet the #1 horse here.

2 call Fighter on multiple lines.

Hi Richie. I also had the 2nd race from AQu today. Didn't the #2 horse have almost the same pattern as the #8 from PHA.

The 2 comes from the fastest pace of the race and he also has the best power line which comes from his last line. And also the race is going to run OTE because it is a ROUTE race and there is more than 1 sprinter in that race. And this fits his running style like a glove.

emilio

Rich: When did you feel comfortable - when you were up by 5, 12, or 17 3/4 lengths?! Nice job!

After reading this section on the matchup it begs the question why can't the methods of the matchup or atleast some of the sections of it be made into a program? Computers I realize have difficulty with Fuzzy areas , but they can perform any mechanical steps like selecting Power Lines and labeling running styles and do some of the repetitve grunt work.

In the early days we had to calculate velocity by pencil and paper, then we designed software to calculate them , other than doing a ranking of these numbers we have quit with our efforts in asking our computers to do more work. I am not suggesting the " so called BLACK BOX" , just that I believe there is still more steps a computer can do.

Just something to ponder.


MIKE.

Being able to STack the powerlines together in one window and then identifing
the contenders and throwing the slow one's to the side is a real great
way for a program to help in our understanding and RDSS seems to do this well. Does spec160 have the same capabilities? For Matching Up that is.

Great Thread, and Quite an Eye opener for this old guy to!

** Good morning Bill. Spec 160 shows adjusted data on a screen together not raw data ok? I don't havr the software otherwise I would post a couple of screen shots in the speculator forum area to show you. If you'd like post a thread there and someone will jump in to help!***
Richie

Thanks Richie, Reading and seeing now.

Your teachings have found the right spot in my thought processes to let the light in and I have finally GOT IT. A lot of years and a lot of frustration but the final outcome is a welcome one.!!
Hope to add some noise to the discussions here and maybe be of some value to this Great site. Thanks