Matt
 

Some of the races I agree with and some I don't

The problem is If I say which line I would use, your just going to get others
to come on and tell you that they would use other lines, then you will get lots of
" there are more than one way to win " comments, and then you will be right back were you started from

What I'm trying to say is, Its up to you to decide what you want to do.
with your pace line selections,
Now some of the races I would chose the line you did for a reason of class
other races I would disagree with your choice based on form,
other races I would either agree or disagree based on statistic evidence.
What I'm trying to say is, I would say reread the pace line manual and all the post in this thread, then make your decisions based on if your winning or not.
and being consistent.

Hope this helps

Bill

My view of the first example is that horse broke maiden in the slowest paced race of his life, must have been in a herd of snails. His last 2 races the nearest he got to the lead was in the gate. Drop him from W contention.

Too much to remember on the others, but the one called Silk Lace I like line 1 because IMO it more nearly fits today's conditions (I feel the other parts of the race are more important than difference between SA or O-Cl designation), is more recent, and because it is from PRX instead of Mth. I always view last out on this same track a positive for the entry.

Just follow the guidelines
 

After several months of following the guide lines. The most important factor to consider is consistency of picking pace lines. I have notice in lot of my handicapping in the past has not been consisted in my approach to picking pace lines.

the "guidelines" is good to follow if you are looking strictly for "winners" only, regardless of the 'class' type of the race. i would however, be interested if anyone has done an "ITM" stats study on this? cheerz

Yes, I have. approximately 500 plus races from the following tracks, Bel, Aqu, Sar, Sa, Hol, Dmr, Gg, Gp, Fg, Cd, Kne. The win and exacta percentage for each pace line selection method of RDSS program.

What is your approach to picking pace lines (if that is OK to ask)?

Before using RDSS, I used the methodology from Michael Pizzolla's book, Handicapping Magic. This is a non-computerized method based on pace line selection. I found his methods to transfer well to RDSS.

Pizzolla's basic rule for pace line selection is to always use the most recent race unless there is a good reason not to. The major reasons include:

1. a negative layoff pattern

2. negative surface (e.g., turf vs. dirt, off track, etc.)

3. negative structure (e.g., sprint vs. route, 1 turn vs. 2 turn, etc.)

4. trouble line in last race

5. last race was at too high a class level, dropping back today

If there is a good reason not to use the most recent race, use the 2nd most recent. If there is a good reason not to use that race, go back another race. If there is a good reason not to use that race, the horse is probably a non-contender, unless it shows some class and is returning to conditions where it has won in the past.

Looks a lot like the paceline manual.

Attachment 39883

Attachment 39885

Same stuff. As I remember, Pizzolla was involved in writing that manual.

Thank You
 

Thanks GFNut and MikeB
I think if you follow these guidelines and this thread pace line selection becomes very simple and effective.

I have RDSS set to pick the last . I then change the line if I have to.
When I use best of last 3 preceptor auto select
I often glanced up and said yeah but ...
and then use the last line anyway.

Either way is good but I find the last line and pace line manual guidelines to
be easy to follow and stay consistent. You must be consistent. It is critical if you have a profile and model

I know this is 8 months after you have asked your question. Most of the respected paceline selection methods have one thing in common. They all point back to the last race. The last race is the line that should be used unless you can find a valid excuse for it.

For us to really be able to assess this in RDSS you would need to have the Trip tab posted instead of the TPR E/L tab. That way we can see the post position the horse broke from and the comments. That way we can determine if the last line was a troubled trip, or did the horse just run poorly for no reason at all.


Carl

I have them
 

Hi Carl

I have the screen shots with the trip notes If Matt wants I can post them for you guys .

Bill

Bill,


That would be great! I'd like to take a look at them.



Thanks
Carl

Pace lines
 

Here they are

Attachment 39888

Attachment 39890

Attachment 39892

other
 

Pace lines

Attachment 39893

Attachment 39895

Pace Line Selection
 

Hi All -

I've been reading through some of the posts here on paceline selection. One suggestion (which may have been offered somewhere in the last 14 pages of posts) is to listen to the first few tapes of Tom Brohamer's lecture series in the Audio Collection.

My feeling is that he describes his procedure for picking pacelines in a way that can be easily duplicated. Basically, the last line is critical in evaluating current form, but if there is a solid reason to discard the last line, then a window is opened to allow you to go back a line. And same for that line and so on until there is a point where you can't make a valid excuse. You're selection should be among those lines.

I've read here that paceline selection needs to be done in a way that can be duplicated each time you handicap, to which I agree completely.

Best of luck!

Chuck

At the end of the first tape, Tom appears to be discussing some handouts from the seminar. Does anyone know if that material is in the "Manual" section here under any of the seminar documentation? Thanks.

Mike -

Excellent question. I've wondered about that as well. As Tom goes through his material on those tapes, it appears he handed out an outline with about 5 or 6 sections....current profile (preferred running style), contender guidelines, negative drops, paceline selection, etc. It seems it would almost summarize his book into one outline.

Those recordings are tremendous. Echoing Mike's question - Does anybody know the whereabouts of a copy of that handout ?

Regards,

Chuck

The manual came with the tapes